Bitcoin neural network analysis week 36/2018: Btc very positive in the next weeks

in bitcoin •  3 months ago

Analysis of past week:
Last week the network did predict some gains and this forecast was correct. The network strategy was optimal.

I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as

Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 13100.44$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 7272.72$ (up 8.4%)
Network strategy: 7790.11$ (up 8.4%)
Starting capital: 11497.40$

The fiat strategy is up since most of the documented time has been a bear market, but the neural network has gained an advantage over btc.

download (31).png
Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.

The network is very optimistic in the next two weeks, with a target of 7397.82$ for this week. The prediction variance is rather low. But towards the end of the month the network becomes quite pessimistic again. Right now it is very hard to state if that is a fluke or what it means. We will see how this develops in the next 2 weeks.

The network clearly prefers bitcoin this week, so my strategy will be holding btc.

This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!

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