Bitcoin neural network analysis week 25/2019: Not much happening

in #bitcoin5 years ago

Analysis of past week:
Again we had a rather good week and broke the psychological barrier of 10000$. The network had been optimistic and the strategy was optimal.

I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as

Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 16153.25$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 10855.37$ (up 20.7 %)
Network strategy: 11666.05$ (up 20.7 %)
Starting capital: 11497.40$

The neural network has gotten a small edge above holding bitcoin or fiat. Fiat with 30% annual interest is still preferred.

Forecast:
download (91).png
Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.

The network remains optimistic for the next weeks and sees small gains. After that the network expects a slow relaxation without much action. It seems we will stall for some while above 10000$.

Since the network is mildly optimistic for the coming week, the strategy remains to hold bitcoin over fiat.

This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!

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