Bitcoin neural network analysis week 23/2019: Consolidation

Analysis of past week:
We finally saw a correction, that was however not predicted by the network. The network strategy was suboptimal.

I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as

Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 15992.93$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 7688.08$ (down 12.1 %)
Network strategy: 8262.23$ (down 12.1 %)
Starting capital: 11497.40$

The fiat strategy is up since most of the documented time has been a bear market. The neural network has gotten some edge above holding bitcoin.

Forecast:

Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.

It was clear that there would be an eventual correction. And one may say that this was not even a correction, but just the establishment of a new trading channel. The network predicts exactly this. We will not see much action in the comming weeks before anything new happens.

Since the network is mildly optimistic for the coming week, the strategy remains to hold bitcoin over fiat.

This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!