In the last few days, Bitcoin has – after the fall to 6000 USD – settled around 6300 – 6400 USD and seems to be trapped here. It does not go up, nor down. The border of 6500 USD was exceeded twice and them maximum was 6600 USD. But there was no further growth. The lowest value was 5900 USD. Where will it go? That is the question not only of this analysis.

The fact that the price of Bitcoin will descend into the “base camp” after reaching the eight-thousandths, was expected just by a few. That head and shoulders pattern at the start of the climb up was very convincing, but it was not enough to reverse the trend. After the descent to the base, nothing happens… it just grows a little bit – more precisely, it flies in the channel 6000-6600, but without any potential. This would indicate the possibility of a further sale and I drew that situation in the graph.

The longer we will stay at the current level, the bigger chance for further sales. It could stop at 4500-5000 USD, but we can expect a short-term fall to 3000 USD.

This seems like I was a purebred bear and advised you to get rid of everything. But it will not be so simple with me, because there is always some alternative development possible. And when the first one was down, the other alternative is up.

Beware; short positions are on the new ATH

The driving force for some buy impulse may be an effort to liquidate shorts on Bitfinex (and also on other exchanges… although we have no data from them, it can be assumed that the situation is similar everywhere). Specifically, on Bitfinex there is a absolute maximum of short positions in the history of the exchange (ATH). When there was the last ATH, they were liquidated very quickly. It happened on April 11th and the price went from 6770 USD to 8050 USD. Well, now the situation could be repeated.

What does this mean? I recommend having a half-half budget. If there is a gradual decline of about 100-200 USD, then I would advise to go to FIAT (but be careful, it has to decline gradually, not within five minutes or so). At the same time, I would place a STOP command at around 6800 USD to buy the second half of the BTC in the case of liquidating the shorts. Note also that last time before the pump, some shorts were closed. I think that moment can be a signal to prepare.

Whatever happens, it will influence the trend only for several weeks before going to another price.

Sentiment in the market, interests on lending

The ratio of open positions (long: short) of top traders on OKEX is 61:37 on voices, in volumes it's balanced.
Bitfinex has 26,000 BTC in long and nearly 40000 BTC in short.
Bitcoins can be borrowed for 0.014%, dollars for 0.01%.

Recommendation: It is possible that the price will go in any direction and that will be decisive for the next trend. I recommend holding half of the BTC and half of the fiat, and buying or selling the half according to the trend.

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Disclaimer: These articles cannot be considered as an investment advice, and it is still a good idea to make speculation on bitcoin stock exchanges only with funds you can afford to lose. The high-profit potential is balanced with a significant risk of losing, especially here on the crypto markets.

Česky: https://btctip.cz/kurz-bitcoinu-analyza-pozor-na-likvidaci-shortu/