Tom Lee: "Altcoin Bear Market Largely Over"

in altcoin •  last year

The pain for altcoin investors is largely over, at least according to Tom Lee.

Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors put out a report this morning saying that according to past trends, much of the declines in the altcoin markets are largely behind us.

What makes him think this?

According to Fundstrat's research, altcoin bearish periods last roughly the same length of time as their bullish periods.

What does this data mean exactly?

Well, In the 3 previous bear markets for altcoins, they lasted roughly the same amount of time as their preceding bull markets.

This most recent bearish period, which saw altcoin prices drop by roughly 75%, has now gone on for 64 days, while the bullish period prior lasted 62 days.

That would indicate that we are getting near a point of this bearish phase finally running out of "steem". (see what I did there?)

According to Fundstrat, this data would indicate that "the likelihood the current drop has ended is high."

(Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-20/bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-says-alt-coin-bear-market-is-largely-over)

There is a caveat to all of this...

One would assume that since the selling is over, it's time for prices to go back up, right?

Not so fast.

Fundstrat's research also shows that once a bearish period ends, there is sort of a "purgatory period", where prices stop doing down, but they don't really go up either.

It's basically a consolidation period.

Based on past trends, this consolidation period lasts anywhere from 70 to 231 days.

A big range I know.

Fundstrat suggests that this current period we now find ourselves in will likely last for roughly 150-175 days.

Which would mean a bull market for altcoins wouldn't really start again with any kind of momentum until roughly the August/September time-frame.

The reason Fundstrat suggests that this period will fall in the latter area of that range is due to the current regulatory uncertainty that is hanging over the altcoin market.

In their mind, we should have a mot more clarity on the regulatory environment by August/September, which would coincide nicely with the latter part of the normal consolidation period for altcoins.

Possible Seasonality at play?

Interestingly enough, Steem and the entire altcoin markets saw a big boost in the late Spring and early Summer of 2017.

They made their lows in the middle of March and saw big gains in May and June.

(Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/steem/)

Will history repeat itself this year or will prices stay mostly subdued till August/September like Fundstrat suggests?

Either way I would expect prices to be much higher than current levels at some point this year.

Stay informed my friends.

Image Source:

http://cryptowirelive.com/altcoin-news/get-ready-for-the-end-of-the-alt-coin-bear-market-in-cryptocurrency/

Follow me: @jrcornel

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Another good post. Keep it up!

I am ready for the next “SURGE”

Bring it on 🧐

Past bear markets in crypto took a long time to recover from because the ecosystem was much smaller and institutional participation was almost non-existent, but this time around that's not the case.

The whole world is talking crypto at the moment, and lots of speculative money is waiting to enter!! This makes all the difference in my opinion.

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"Past results do not indicate future results"

That statement most likely applies here, though it is a fun talking point never the less.

I think you are exactly right though, the current crypto environment is different than anything else it has every experienced in its history.

I think once we get some clarity on regulations and even taxes, we are going to see a massive run again, as long as those regulations aren't too heavy-handed of course. :)

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Exactly, the world is waking up to crypto but I don't think we will have a huge boom in capital flow, it might be quite steady.

I am not that positive to be honest. I think we should wait for several days before claiming it.

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Good point. Patience can definitely be rewarded here... but investor sentiment is itching to hit the by button for sure. This past period was a great time to trim the fat from portfolios and focus on a few solid projects, like Substratum, or Cardano, in my opinion.

Title: good news
Text: Not so good

All depends which altcoins you have. But in general it makes sense.
This is called the HURRY UP AND WAIT SYNDROME.
Wen cryptos go up they usually go up very fast and then they take forever to correct until the next wave which may come around the 14 of may or even sooner.
I wish all of you massive profits !!

That's great. So finally we are going to see good days again.

It is also an indication to put your investments now on some coins you belive in so that you could get full profit when we see this bull market.

I can see 150 days.

Altcoins are forming new supports and doing small rallies. Coupled with volume spikes, it is a clear sign of accumulation.
Buying at these levels = preparing to get at least +1000% in a few months 😉

I acquiesce about the consolidation/accumulation duration before the usual crazy rally.
I think anybody that is in the altcoin field since a few years already spotted those patterns.

Hope it turns out to be true!

This last dip was very scary. Market cap dropped below $300B. The FUD was scary. Thank the gods for strong HODl hands.

I’m behind on news but didn’t he just say we could see a new low?

Hello @ jrcornel, I think that the suffering is over, now we start to see our investments improve, it was worth waiting and freezing my cryptocurrencies. Happy day :)

amazing picture!!

I just keep staying positive and optimistic. No matter the matter

Some extraordinary pictures taken sir. You did a great job. Loved your pictures. Going nicely
Stay blessed. Would love to read your next blog too.
It is really a great experience .....
BTW nice tip...thanks for the secret..
this is an amazing photography and i love to read it, thank you for sharing @jrcornel
I will upvote and resteamed This Posts.

running out of "steem" (see what I did there?)

Yes, so buy more Steem!

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No. What d

Hermoso!

I really hope you're right. My gains have been taking a beating..

Bearish, sideways, bullish, doesn't matter, I'm in for the long run. Would it be nice to have a trend reversal? Sure! I'm all set up for the positive or at least neutral news! ;)

Tom Lee single-handedly pulled BTC out of the crapper.... at least for a few days (or hours). All hail the great FOMOsapien Tom Lee. Yes, blockchain may be a transformative technology (maybe).... but I suspect that BTC and the 1564 other coins and tokens are not its greatest use. Yes folks, we now have more than 10 virtual currencies for every 1 fiat currency... lol
Hope Tom gets a commission for the 30 Billion bump he just gave to the current crypto market cap

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What does this have to do with altcoin markets?

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i open a tab and give this comment by mistake ...sorry for that

That's comforting news

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There hasn't been much lately has there?

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Indeed!

Man. That is way too far away. I hope we see it start rising up soon.

It turns out to be true!

Right after tax season, when 1st quarter is over, will be when the crypto market picks up. IMHO

To listen to the audio version of this article click on the play image.

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This is the third day without decline, I believe the bear is over too.
I just want the climb to be much faster.

awesome your post (Jrcornel)thanks

Let us hope only for the best! Thank you for your work! Success and prosperity to all!

I think there is a lot of uncertainty trying to apply stock analysis techniques to crypto currency and bitcoin... but I'll say this feels like a bull trap!

Well that is kind of a relief to many I suppose !Hope this trend of bull does goes on as we speak !

Good post

I am convinced you are right. The first 150 days are within the range when Google will be implementing burn on crypto currency based adds. Between now and then investors will have armored themselves enough as current trends still indicate bitcoin and others are regaining, despite of such the negative influence created by Facebook and now Google.

Nice post,
I'm resteem,ok

This is great news , since the bearish period has taken a long time and altcoin investors are becoming frustrated

Ok so Mr Lee says rangebound consolidation ... Did he mention his price range?

I just hope the next bull market is strong enough to get back most of my gains, these bears have mauled the shit out of me.

Wow..Very good news sir @jrcornel...Thanks for sharing.....

Wow very good news for steemit@jrcornel.......The whole world is talking crypto at the moment, and lots of speculative money is waiting to enter!! This makes all the difference in my opinion.Thanks for sharing....

It's time for us to prepare a bull market coming

These uncertain times in the crypto world are very unique. This situation has become something many speculate about. However, it is different to speculate from the outside than to be fully immersed in cryptocurrency. Blockbasis, as part of the crypto world, has seen first-hand the passion and support of our users. In the meantime, everyone is keenly waiting to have a definitive word on regulations and taxes as well.