My opinion on this crash!
Till now, whether you like technical analysis or not, we all vaguely know how most coins and market behavior affects a price. We will often see a big, FOMO induced run, followed by a correction/crash down to the trendline. Some will survive it because they invested for the long term or because they have a belief in it, while others are going to leave for different, more selfish reasons. This is what is happening here - but simply at a larger scale. If you look at past years around this time or a chart of any crypto running and then correcting itself, it still looks a lot like what we're seeing right now; however, there is a lot more at play and more factors affecting this run/correction than that of another.
December was the month which brought us the biggest run we have seen in crypto's lifetime, and with that, we should expect the crash to be just as big. However, what a lot of people take for granted is that the same month also brought crypto into the mainstream and opened itself up to big money. And if there is one thing we know about big money, is that they want more. The proof is in the pudding that there are clear articles, news, manipulation, etc to drive the price down so they can accumulate more. Before December, sure they knew it existed, but did they really know what crypto actually was?
Let's have a look at it in plain sight. We went from big names shitting on bitcoin and the general public calling it a pyramid scheme/scam to everyone praising crypto and basically guaranteeing it to be an integral part of society in the near future. Take it as you will, but I believe that the big money has been put on to crypto and now wants to hold big percentages of the market so that when this does go up, so does their power.
In my opinion, the correction would have stopped much sooner ($10k-$15k BTC) had there not been powerful organizations and people trying to get a nice slice of the pie. This is why we are seeing an almost 100% retracement from the start of December - because the market is being manipulated to the point where big money can accumulate without completely killing the market. Looking at everyone's favorite chart, I believe we are nearing the end of capitulation as we approach an almost 100% retracement from the beginning of the run.
Of course, I am still bearish for these next few weeks, but for the long run, I'm as bullish as a guy that recommends his neighbor's dog to buy a 3 ripple because it will one day be worth the dollar value of bitcoin (/s). Remember that big money will not let this market die. Remember that financial institutions and massive companies know that the technology is revolutionary and will always stay. Remember that although bitcoin controls the market, it does not represent the market. I say this because there are loads of blockchain startups that are trying to increase and change the way industries of all sectors work. Crypto is no longer just changing the finance industry, but almost every other industry where a use-case can be applied. It is making society more efficient. Sure bitcoin has now evolved into an alternative store of value, but it does not fulfill what satoshi envisioned, but I'd be damned lying if I didn't say that it was the spark that lit up the next tech-based revolution.
Whether you still have positions in a coin or not, if you're reading this then it means you're still here and still have not lost all hope. You have pulled through most of the storm and if you're getting overwhelmed, then I can do no more than to just suggest to take a step back and look at the grand scheme of things. This is what it has been hyped up to be and you very well know that. Don't let a small road bump like this make you turn away from your guts. Cheers.