Why Segwit2x Is Doomed to Fail

BitcoinGoldhard for was a total failure...but will Segwit2x face the same tragedy?
I pesonally think segwit2x will be as successful as Bitcoincash hardfork.
It seems like people are trying to cause some FUDs to lower the price of bitcoin or the price of segwit2x.

What is your opinion on this matter?

[Article]

Why Segwit2x Is Doomed to Fail

Ariel Deschapell is a full-stack javascript developer teaching at the Ironhack coding bootcamp in Miami, and a Henry Hazlitt fellow in Digital Development at the Foundation for Economic Education.

In this opinion piece, Deschapell argues that an upcoming proposal for changing the bitcoin software will fail to achieve its desired results.

With two weeks remaining until it's slated to launch, all eyes are on the imminent hard fork of the bitcoin software: Segwit2x.

Its significance? The fear that it could initiate the largest and most contentious chain split that bitcoin, and perhaps any cryptocurrency, has yet seen. Such an event could have devastating consequences for the ecosystem and its wider perception.

However, a close analysis of the dynamics at play shows that these fears are largely overblown. More likely is the avoidance (or quick resolution) of such a split, one that will also serve as an important test that bolsters the perception of bitcoin as a secure store of value.

Unprecedented circumstance

A number of factors have contributed to escalating this situation and making it a completely unprecedented, and therefore one understandably shrouded in uncertainty.

Other controversial forks seeking to increase the block size have come and gone with little incident under the names of Bitcoin XT, Bitcoin Classic and Bitcoin Unlimited. However, 2x differs from these previous attempts in two distinct and important ways.

The first is in its substantial backing. The scheduled 2x fork is the result of the "New York Agreement" between an impressive collection of major industry players including miners, wallets, exchanges and payment processors.

At its inception, the agreement claimed the participation of 58 companies located in 22 countries including many of the largest in the ecosystem, and 83.28% of miner hashing power. This represented the most significant push for any hard fork to increase the block size by far.

And while the agreement has lost a non-negligible amount of that support since it was first announced, the majority of its original signatories have not officially indicated a change in position.

The second and most important difference (one made even more significant by its aforementioned backing) is the NYA's break from the traditional conventions regarding changes to the bitcoin protocol. This has been the source of much of the contention and protest in the community.

Unlike previous attempts to change the bitcoin core protocol, Segwit2x was not introduced as a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal, but rather through the New York Agreement.

This is significant because bitcoin and all blockchains are strictly opt-in, consensus-based systems. For a backwards incompatible change to be implemented like a block size increase, the whole peer-to-peer network of bitcoin nodes must synchronously update its software to avoid splitting the blockchain and ecosystem.

For this reason, it is a standard and reasonable expectation for advocates of hard forks to attempt to do either one of two things. First, they can build widespread consensus in the ecosystem around the need for a backwards-incompatible change so as to avoid a confusing chain split. Or, if they cannot create such consensus, then they can enact replay protection – as bitcoin cash did – in order to cleanly split into a co-existing minority chain with minimal disruption to the ecosystem.

Segwit2x breaks this trend by declining to enact replay protection and also failing to publicly seek and build wider community support for the adoption of the software.

This is explained by the language of the original NYA announcement itself, which reveals a deeply flawed premise: that a consensus for such a change was already obtained since, "The group of signed companies represents a critical mass of the bitcoin ecosystem."

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https://www.coindesk.com/opinion-segwit2x-doomed-fail/