Bitcoin 2018 Price Projection Using Monte Carlo Random Walks: ~50,000 USD
Using the Monte Carlo statistical projection method, combined with what are known as random walks, Xoel López Barata developed some pretty fun bitcoin price scenarios for the end of this year. His projections are compelling because he follows data, revealing the difficulty being able to accurately prophesize much about the world’s most popular cryptocurrency’s path.
Monte Carlo Projection Method
Xoel López Barata recently published a pretty great thought experiment. Mr. Barata ran a simulated price projection for all of this year, attempting to figure out just where bitcoin will end in 2018. It is “my opinion and not investment advice,” he urges. And it’s always good to remind readers past performance is no indication of future returns, as life seems to always have other plans.
Mr. Barata used what’s known as a Monte Carlo method. The nerdiest among us will really enjoy following his inputs on Github. He uses daily returns, price variants, but doesn’t assume a normal distribution and instead notes “extreme events have a higher probability of happening.” The Monte Carlo method is usually attributed to a WWII Greek-American scientist Nicholas Metropolis.
it will be 60000 usd end of december 2018. my point to be noted. make a note.