Steem Dilution - Why? - Explained

in #steem-help8 years ago (edited)

Many users on Steemit do not understand WHY the inflation rate of Steem is so high? This is the exact topic I will be tackling in this post, and I hope for some, I will be able to make sense of the situation.


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First, a Little Background…(it is not imperative you understand these numbers…)

Steem is inflationary just like the $USD and all currencies around the world. Steem is currently in distribution mode, so the % rate at which new Steem is being produced is much higher than it will be 12 months from now. We are currently at 800 Steem produced per minute;

  • New Steem Created Per Minute: 800 Steem
  • New Steem Created Per Day: 1,152,000 Steem [1]
  • Current Steem Supply: 148,354,955 Steem [2]
  • The Gross Steem Dilution Rate Today: ([1]/[2]): 0.77%

Of the new Steem Created, Steem Power Holders get 90%, the other 10% get paid out in Contribution Rewards.

The Daily Dilution rate will fall day in day out until we hit 0.19% sometime towards the end of next year (It will continue to fall because the daily amount of Steem created remains static, but the Total Steem in Circulation increases each day). When we hit 0.19%, the number of Steem created per minute will begin to increase in Gross terms to keep the daily Dilution rate at 0.19%.

WHY??

As I usually do, I will consult the White Paper - Page 38-39 to begin with in order to get a good sense of what the founders were thinking when they set up the Steem Economic System. This section is headed up Accounting in Steem;

The increase in the supply of STEEM is mostly an accounting artifact created by the desire to avoid charging negative interest rates on liquid STEEM. Negative interest rates would complicate the lives of exchanges which would have to adjust user balances to account for the negative rate of return of STEEM held on deposit.

Mirroring the blockchain logic exactly would be error prone and complicate integration and adoption. Therefore, STEEM has chosen to never charge someone’s account, but instead to increase supply. This achieves a similar economic result without forcing everyone accepting STEEM deposits to implement negative interest rates on their internal ledger.

From this extract, we can see that, the purpose of dilution in the Steem System is to target Liquid Steem holders. Liquid Steem holders have the ability to cash in their holding at a moments notice, and don’t need to commit, or contribute to the Steemit platform to do so.

Looking at Page 8 of the White Paper Steem is Described as follows;

Steem is the fundamental unit of account on the Steem blockchain. All other tokens derive their value from the value of STEEM. Generally speaking STEEM should be held for short periods of time when liquidity is needed. Someone looking to enter or exit the Steem platform will have to buy or sell STEEM. Once STEEM has been purchased it should be converted into SP or SMD to mitigate the impact of dilution over the long-term.

Now, when answering the question Why? It all comes down to incentives and fairness.

The Steemit system incentivises users to Power Up in order to avoid dilution. This actions is a commitment to the Steemit Platform. In exchange for a long term commitment, users avoid high dilution rates attached to Liquid Steem. They do however forgo liquidity in exchange.

What this means is, committed long term user/investors stand to gain far more (or be diluted far less) than passive users who are not prepared to commit.

This contributes to the Steem Economic System being a Fair Meritocracy, incentivising and rewarding long term commitments, and Penalising short term Money Grabbing mentality.

While I am here, thought I would mention…

The 10:1 Reverse Split

Every 32,000,000 Blocks (approx 3 years) the Steem Network performs a 10:1 reverse split. This means that everyone’s holding of Steem will be divided by 10, however price of Steem at Exchanges will be multiplied by 10 to counteract this change.

The reason for this is as follows;

A side effect of increasing the supply is that the network will require ever increasing levels of precision in its accounting. On average the number of bits required to represent a typical account will grow by 1.3 per year. It will only take 10 years before numbers involved no longer fit within the 53 bit precision supported by JavaScript or the 64 bit precision supported by CPUs.

Over time the magnitude of the numbers involved grows beyond human scale and comprehension; furthermore, the least significant bits have so little economic value as to render them meaningless.

This construct allows the numbers of Steem in Circulation to remain at a reasonable level moving forward into the future. If the Reverse Split wasn’t in place every ~3yrs, the Steem in circulation would balloon to unreasonable numbers quickly.

Always interested to hear you thoughts... Also, if anyone has any requests for future posts from myself, let me know in the comments section..

Post Promotion:

One of my Steemit friends @acidyo is working on helping new users get welcomed into the community. Check his post out here

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My Brain really hurts the more I think about this...especially the part where I signed up in June and did nothing until August...

It's been a slow process of learning for myself. Took me a while to get my head around everything. Don't give this stuff too much thought, if you keep read Steemit related posts, you will be a pro before you know it!!

I'm with @stephen-somers - my brain hurts trying to understand everything...but at least my hair doesn't anymore. That's progress! LOL

I don't consider myself a newbie anymore but I'm still reading what I can and trying to have a better grasp of what I'm doing here. My concentration is on content creation. I've been splitting my Steem Dollars between buying small amounts of STEEM because I consider it an investment, and converting to BTC because I have bills to pay. I'm leaving my Steem Power alone because I want to increase my voting power.
I'm not sure how I'll be affected, but my goal is to be an above average contributing member and investor. :)

I've voted early for many posts that made on to make between several 5-2000$, but when I look under the rewards tab: There's no reward for curation. Only for a few of the comments I've made over the course of these last weeks.

Is there something wrong? Will I need Steempower to earn from curation or is the problem that I voted for posts made by popular users?

Thankfull for any help!

It must be because you have a small amount of Steem Power in your account. Curation rewards are a function of your voting power which is a function of how much Steem Power you possess.

I'm going to assume your curation rewards were adding up to less than 0.0001 Steem Power (minimum Steem fraction), so the system had to reward you zero...

Don't hold me to this, just a thought..

I have no extra Steempower except what I got as a gift upon signup. So I'm guessing you must be right.

And the votes I got for a comment paid off because I was the creator of the "content" that was the comment then?

Seems reasonable.

Is this part below still true even though there isn't liquidity rewards? I mean is the 0.19% still the exact number? I'd love to answer that question but I thought I'll ask before beginning to look for an answer.

The Daily Dilution rate will fall day in day out until we hit 0.19% sometime towards the end of next year (It will continue to fall because the daily amount of Steem created remains static, but the Total Steem in Circulation increases each day). When we hit 0.19%, the number of Steem created per minute will begin to increase in Gross terms to keep the daily Dilution rate at 0.19%.

I'm not 100% sure what is happening to the 20 Steem per minute that were allocated to Liquidity Rewards. Post me a link when you find out @teamsteem. I figured the impact would be small enough (2.5% of 0.19%) to discount from my findings, however I would be interested to know just like you...

@hisnameisolllie Aren't liquidity reward closer to 7.5% of the 0.19%? Sorry If I'm totally off here.

Liquidity rewards: 1 STEEM per block (awarded as 1200 STEEM per hour) or 0.750% per year, whichever is greater

Ah let me quote all of them.

Curation rewards: 1 STEEM per block or 3.875% per year, whichever is greater
Content Creation rewards: 1 STEEM per block or 3.875% per year, whichever is greater
Block production rewards: 1 STEEM per block or 0.750% per year, whichever is greater
POW inclusion rewards before block 864,000: 1 STEEM per block (awarded as 21 STEEM per round)
POW inclusion rewards after block 864,000: 0.0476 STEEM per block (awarded as 1 STEEM per round) or 0.750% per year, whichever is greater.
Liquidity rewards: 1 STEEM per block (awarded as 1200 STEEM per hour) or 0.750% per year, whichever is greater

At the moment, Steem Creation is running at 270% per annum.

800 Steem per minute, 20 of which were allocated for Liquidity Rewards. 2.5% of New Steem.
1200 x 24(hrs) x 365(days) = 10,512,000/0.75% = 1,401,600,000

There would need to be 1.4bn Steem in existence for the 0.75% per annum clause to be implemented..

Current <150m in Circulation

I am talking in terms of % of new Steem...

Just to be clear, if liquidity rewards were running, they would be greater than 0.75% currently.

Apologise for the scatter brain reply. I'm on my phone. I'm well aware I not being as clear as I could be.

I love the reverse split idea. Did you know that some radioactive elements have half lives that REVERSE backwards? I wonder what a re-reversed split would look like? (just a mad idea by the way!)

I cannot get my head around this... ;)

Some radioactive elements half lives reverse backwards...

Do a post on this, it sounds interesting...

Bismuth has shown slight reversals during its half life, as no half life is the same for even the same element. Time can indeed run backwards i.e. with negative entropy. I blame the 11 dimensions of space-time!

Definitely would love to read a post on this

I shall go forth and forage!

I've forgotten most of my chemistry, but if i'm not wrong, most elements, especially radioactive ones, decompose overtime, but they don't decompose totally. Say if element x has a half-life of 50years. In 50years time, perhaps 100kg of element x, becomes 50kg of element x. in 100 years, it becomes 25kg, then 12.5kg, and so fore. Please correct me if i'm wrong.

I followed just based on this cool comment.

So does this mean the amount of steem you have in steem power is diluted every year with 10%?

yeap. but you can easily counter this by curating and posting.

This is not true for someone with a busy job who does not have a big chunk of SP already. I hope value of steem will rise at least 25% next years otherwise it's a waste.

If your holding Steem Power and the price remains constant, the value of your SP will go up ~270% in the next year... That seems fine to me...

IF price remains constant; in my opinion marketcap may stay constant or even rise a bit however the price per steem will most likely drop. Although I'm still hoping a meteoric rise will occur....

It's more than that at the moment, however the Curation and Creation Rewards are more too. Overall Dilution for the next 12 months is running around ~270% (it will settle down to roughly 100% from then on), so Steem Power Holders will be getting diluted 10% of that (~27%).

That being said, if you are an average contributor to the Steemit Platform, your dilution rate is ~zero, as you will receive back your dilution in Curation and Creation rewards. If you are an above average contributor, then you will be gaining in relative terms...

Doesn't this assume a constant rate of demand for Steem that is less than the rate of dilution? Theoretically if demand for Steem increases at a rate that is equal to the rate of dilution the value of the token should remain constant. Curious to hear your thoughts on this, but a lot of these discussions seem to be founded on the assumption that anyone has any idea how much demand there will be for Steem in the future (e.g. how many apps will be built using Steem, how much demand for those apps there will be, how many people will be using Steemit, and how often). Don't know if that's just me missing something though (totally what it feels like). For example, if someone makes an app that creates infinite demand for Steem, the value of Steem would increase to infinity and you wouldn't need to bother with curation or posting because your Steem would be worth infinity. Obviously it's not likely, but I think that does illustrate the point. An app that simply create a "shitload" (to use a technical term) of demand would have a similar, just diminished, effect right? Great post btw. Explained some really tough concepts very efficiently.

Hello @andrarchy. Happy to address your thoughts.

Doesn't this assume a constant rate of demand for Steem that is less than the rate of dilution? Theoretically if demand for Steem increases at a rate that is equal to the rate of dilution the value of the token should remain constant.

What has been written in my post is only about the supply side, demand and thus prices are a different matter. Your points are correct. The fact of the matter is, the price of Steem tokens will be anyone's guess in xtime.

I think the answer to your question, is that, I am talking about % ownership of Total Steem Tokens, Not the value of your holding. Think of it this way.

  • Imagine there 1m Steem in Existence and you own 10,000 (1%)
  • If in 1 year time there are 2m Steem Tokens in Existence, and you own 15,000 (0.75%)

The value of your holding could be higher, lower, or the same. That depends on as you put it the demand for Steem (and thus the Price). One thing that is certainly true, your % of Steem Control has fallen...

Let me know if this answers your question, or if I have misunderstood. I do have a tendency to answer the wrong question ;)

Yup, perfect answer. Thanks!

Would this actually be diluting the "power" of the Steempower as well?

Yes, but by much less. Steem Power received 90% of all dilution back as incentives. However, pound for pound, a single Steem will lose 'power' with dilution

I understood a lot of this but I did not understand the reverse split in the whitepaper. Thank you so much for this information. I think you're teaching a lot of people why there steem power is going up.

I am learning
Thank-You for posting this post
Steem-on!

Gracias por la data. Saludos

Does steempower will be Reverse Split?

Thanks for the post promotion! :)

It's so refreshing to read someone who understands the white paper to this degree, I'm slowly getting it.

Cg

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