BITCOIN FORECAST, BTC PRICE ACTION - 26 MARCH 2019

BITCOIN - BTC

This is a place for traders to be neutral. BTC is SLOW and moving into higher ranges. Market sentiment is exhausted looking for a shake out in either direction. Majority thinking a measure move to the downside likely. Since November BTC has been ranging between 200 SMA and 200 EMA and has had an apparent Bull Trap on this last uprise. Daily stoch is giving way to Bearish Divergence. Bulls need to hold $3850. Immediate timeframe is pressured down $3920-3940 test area. Above $3950 a run into the $4000 would be in play. Historical area has suggested major downside, dump in this area. That being said BTC is positioned right in the Neutral Zone. Price action is corrective by volume signature, Bearish.

BTC HIGHLIGHTS

• Measured move for months: Buy 200 SMA, Sell 200 EMA
• Focus for this week looking at 21 SMA
• March Monthly close below $3884 would be Bearish
• Bearish Divergence signalling on lower time frames
• Lower Highs (LH) $4150 and $3969
• $3750 is support on the weekly
• Break of $3450 (200 SMA) is Bearish

4-HOUR

-Mixed signal with Stoch angled up and RSI down

2-DAY STOCH

• Are up and hitting trend line, reaching exhaustion

CME

• Closed the day down but didn't break trend line from late November 2018
• Reaction from here is important
• 10 SMA still acting as resistance
• Pop to retest $3930 area possible
• Nice hunt above resistance (Bull Trap) possible

GRAYSCALE

• 4-hour Stoch, RSI measured down
• 4.50 critical
• $3650-3700 lines up with .50 fib

BULLISH OUTLOOK

• Break above 4100 with volume to $4250 then to $4400-4500 range
• Would need an increase volume

BEARISH OUTLOOK

Still looking at a possible downside to BTC. A monthly close below $3884 would bolster strong leaning to downside.

• Break to $3450 possible, then significant downside to mid $2000 range

GREED AND FEAR INDEX

Sentiment History: Crypto Fear & Greed Over Time

Here is a plot of our Fear & Greed Index over time, where a value of 0 means "Extreme Fear" while a value of 100 represents "Extreme Greed". Since we started measuring the Fear & Greed Index with our final algorithm (small changes excluded) in early 2018, there is no older data available than Feb 01, 2018.

Why Measure Fear and Greed?

The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out). Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With our Fear and Greed Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreations. There are two simple assumptions:
Extreme fear can be a sign that investors are too worried. That could be a buying opportunity.
When Investors are getting too greedy, that means the market is due for a correction.
Therefore, we analyze the current sentiment of the Bitcoin market and crunch the numbers into a simple meter from 0 to 100. Zero means "Extreme Fear", while 100 means "Extreme Greed". See below for futher information on our data sources.

Data Sources

We are gathering data from the five following sources. Each data point is valued the same as the day before in order to visualize a meaningful progress in sentiment change of the crypto market.
First of all, the current index is for bitcoin only (we offer separate indices for large alt coins soon), because a big part of it is the volatility of the coin price.

But let’s list all the different factors we’re including in the current index:

Volatility (25 %)

We’re measuring the current volatility and max. drawdowns of bitcoin and compare it with the corresponding average values of the last 30 days and 90 days. We argue that an unusual rise in volatility is a sign of a fearful market.

Market Momentum/Volume (25%)

Also, we’re measuring the current volume and market momentum (again in comparison with the last 30/90 day average values) and put those two values together. Generally, when we see high buying volumes in a positive market on a daily basis, we conclude that the market acts overly greedy / too bullish.

Social Media (15%)

While our reddit sentiment analysis is still not in the live index (we’re still experimenting some market-related key words in the text processing algorithm), our twitter analysis is running. There, we gather and count posts on various hashtags for each coin (publicly, we show only those for Bitcoin) and check how fast and how many interactions they receive in certain time frames). A unusual high interaction rate results in a grown public interest in the coin and in our eyes, corresponds to a greedy market behaviour.

Surveys (15%)

Together with strawpoll.com (disclaimer: we own this site, too), quite a large public polling platform, we’re conducting weekly crypto polls and ask people how they see the market. Usually, we’re seeing 2,000 - 3,000 votes on each poll, so we do get a picture of the sentiment of a group of crypto investors. We don’t give those results too much attention, but it was quite useful in the beginning of our studies. You can see some recent results here.

Dominance (10%)

The dominance of a coin resembles the market cap share of the whole crypto market. Especially for Bitcoin, we think that a rise in Bitcoin dominance is caused by a fear of (and thus a reduction of) too speculative alt-coin investments, since Bitcoin is becoming more and more the safe haven of crypto. On the other side, when Bitcoin dominance shrinks, people are getting more greedy by investing in more risky alt-coins, dreaming of their chance in next big bull run. Anyhow, analyzing the dominance for a coin other than Bitcoin, you could argue the other way round, since more interest in an alt-coin may conclude a bullish/greedy behaviour for that specific coin.

Trends (10%)

We pull Google Trends data for various Bitcoin related search queries and crunch those numbers, especially the change of search volumes as well as recommended other currently popular searches. For example, if you check Google Trends for "Bitcoin", you can’t get much information from the search volume. But currently, you can see that there is currently a +1,550% rise of the query „bitcoin price manipulation“ in the box of related search queries (as of 05/29/2018). This is clearly a sign of fear in the market, and we use that for our index.

FEAR INDEX SOURCE:
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/