It is unlikely QC will be capable of cracking encryption keys until the 2030s.

Here’s why it will take so long.

Challenge #1: Programming QC

The challenge in finding a quantum physicist who understands how to program a specific QC architecture and who understands the problem you want to solve is much worse than finding a Masters- or PhD-level data scientist to analyze all that big data you’ve been hoarding. It would be like trying to find a needle in a thousand haystacks.

Challenge #2: Getting a stable result from a QC program

This is a lot harder than it sounds.

Because it is so difficult to get qubits to behave properly for long enough to finish a program, even at these low temperatures, QC architectures need to design error detection and correction into each qubit.

Challenge #3: Assembling and programing qubits as a QC accelerator

Researchers are learning to build QC systems that can reliably orchestrate thousands of logical qubits. And they are learning how to usefully program those qubits. Then they must build a software ecosystem to commercialize their QC systems. Of course, it also requires building thousands of qubits.

Breaking the code on quantum cryptography futures

The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is working on detailed recommendations for a post-QC cryptography world. NIST issued a formal call for proposals last December; November 30, 2017 is the deadline for submissions. NIST’s intent is to issue draft standards on post-quantum cryptography in the 2023-2025 timeframe, about halfway through an industry consensus minimum 15-year QC development and commercialization period.

QC will not break encryption keys this decade. It will happen at some point, but there are reasonable steps that can be taken now to keep data safe for at least a couple of decades.

@TiriasResearch

@paulrteich