Winners and Losers: After losses by Nos. 1 and 2, here are the 3 most likely playoff scenarios

Did you really think figuring out the 2017 College Football Playoff field was going to be straightforward?

Thanks to No. 1 Alabama losing to No. 6 Auburn on Saturday and No. 2 Miami’s upset loss at Pitt on Friday, there’s still a lot to play for during championship week. Will the Crimson Tide make it in to the playoff despite not winning its own division in the SEC? Will Wisconsin move to 13-0 with a win over Ohio State? Will the Big 12 have a team make the playoff for the second time in four years?

Here are the three playoff scenarios that are the most likely to happen after next week’s games. Don’t discount the possibility of none of these scenarios happening either. This season has been anything but predictable.

(Scenarios are ranked from most to least likely. Teams are not listed in order of projected seeding.)

SCENARIO 1

Team 1: ACC championship game winner (Clemson or Miami)
Team 2: Oklahoma
Team 3: Wisconsin
Team 4: SEC championship game winner (Auburn or Georgia)

This is the most straightforward of the College Football Playoff scenarios. The winner of Clemson-Miami will have one loss and a conference title. The Hurricanes’ undefeated season disappeared on Friday at Pitt, while Clemson beat rival South Carolina handily on Saturday to move to 11-1.

While Miami has the most recent loss, the Hurricanes will still be in great shape with a win over the defending national champions.

The Tigers, who started the week at No. 3, are the prohibitive favorite to move to No. 1 in Tuesday’s rankings.

Oklahoma would be at 12-1 with a Big 12 title with a win over TCU in the Big 12 championship game. The Sooners, who rolled over West Virginia on Saturday, would have two wins over the Horned Frogs, a win over Oklahoma State and a win over Ohio State on the resume. Oklahoma is win-and-in, just like the ACC winner. And the Sooners should be No. 2 on Tuesday.

Wisconsin would be in even better shape as the only undefeated Power Five team in college football. The Badgers won at Minnesota on Saturday to move to 12-0. It’s the program’s first undefeated regular season since 1912.

The Badgers have been hanging around outside the top four in the playoff rankings because of a weak strength of schedule. Michigan, at 8-4, is the best team Wisconsin has beaten. But that will change this week as the Badgers should take advantage of Alabama and Miami’s losses. Wisconsin will be No. 3 on Tuesday.

A win over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game will only bolster Wisconsin’s profile. A Power Five team at 13-0 with a conference title will never miss the College Football Playoff. The Badgers would be in.

The final spot is less of a guarantee, especially if Auburn beats Georgia. If the Bulldogs exact revenge on the Tigers for a shellacking two weeks ago, Georgia would be at 12-1. That’s good enough for the playoff because the Pac-12 champion (either USC or Stanford) would have no fewer than two losses. And Alabama, at 11-1, has a resume that doesn’t compare to Georgia’s.

If Auburn wins the SEC title game, the Tigers would move to 11-2. That’s one more loss than the 11-1 Crimson Tide. But the Tigers have improved as the season has gone on and beat Alabama 26-14 on Saturday. There’s no way the committee can put Alabama in the playoff above an SEC champion Auburn. None.

SCENARIO 2

Team 1: Clemson or Miami
Team 2: Oklahoma
Team 3: Georgia or Auburn
Team 4: Alabama

In this scenario, the ACC champion is still in, Oklahoma still beats TCU and the winner of the SEC title game is still in. But Wisconsin loses to Ohio State.

That would knock the Badgers to 12-1 and it would be hard to see how Wisconsin could get into the playoff after losing in its conference title game. No team has ever lost a conference title game and made the College Football Playoff.

A Wisconsin loss would open the door for Alabama, who could get into the playoff much like the Buckeyes did a year ago. Ohio State made it to the final four with an 11-1 record despite not appearing in the Big Ten title game thanks to a loss to Penn State (who won the Big Ten and missed the playoff). Alabama’s schedule wasn’t the toughest thanks to underwhelming seasons by Florida State and LSU, but the Tide would get in ahead of a two-loss Ohio State if the Buckeyes beat the Badgers.

SCENARIO 3

Team 1: Clemson or Miami
Team 2: Georgia or Auburn
Team 3: Alabama
Team 4: Ohio State

Here’s where it gets even more implausible. But not impossible. In this scenario, both Wisconsin and Oklahoma lose, giving us a two-loss Big 12 champion in TCU and a two-loss Big Ten champion in Ohio State.

Auburn could be a two-loss SEC champion as well, but thanks to two wins over Georgia and a win over Alabama, the Tigers’ case for the playoff is solid. And, as we’ve said before, the winner of the ACC will have one loss. Those conference winners are both locks.

We like Alabama as the third team here because of the Tide’s 11-1 record and because Alabama has the best loss. TCU lost to Iowa State — which finished the season 7-5 — and Ohio State got blown out by 7-5 Iowa on the road. There must be something about that corn-producing state.

And there’s something about Oklahoma too. Both TCU and Ohio State’s other losses would be to the Sooners. Who gets the edge?

We like Ohio State, unless the Buckeyes eke out a win against Wisconsin and TCU blows out Oklahoma. A win over an undefeated top-four team would look better than one to a team who had a loss. Yeah, that’s pretty simple — probably too simple. But expect Ohio State to be ahead of TCU in Tuesday’s playoff rankings. And if both teams win similarly, how could the committee vault the Horned Frogs over the Buckeyes?

Here are this week’s winners and losers.

WINNERS

Quinton Flowers: South Florida may have lost to rival Central Florida in a thriller on Friday, but the performance of QB Quinton Flowers is worth acknowledging. The senior put up an insane 605 yards of offense — 503 passing and 102 rushing — along with five total touchdowns in the 49-42 defeat. Flowers threw touchdowns of 47, 20 and 21 yards in the first half before scoring on a 24-yard run and finding Darnell Salomon behind the defense for a game-tying 83-yard touchdown with 1:41 remaining. Unfortunately for Flowers, UCF returned the ensuing kickoff 95 yards for the game-winning touchdown.

Middle Tennessee: MTSU got its second crack at becoming bowl eligible and did so emphatically. Last week, the Blue Raiders dropped a heartbreaker to Western Kentucky in double-overtime. Against Old Dominion on Saturday, they left no doubt, winning 41-10. MTSU jumped out to a big lead and put up 586 yards of offense in the win in a game where a bowl trip was on the line for both teams. MTSU started the season 3-5 but won three of its last four to sneak into a bowl for the third year in a row.

Duke: The Blue Devils went on the road and scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to come from behind and beat a hot Wake Forest team. With the win, the Blue Devils will return to a bowl game, even after enduring a six-game losing streak this season. Duke started the year 4-0 before dropping six straight. To reach the postseason, the Blue Devils needed consecutive wins over Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. They did just that and are going to a bowl for the fifth time in the last six seasons.