Poker Tip Man Armen-How to calculate “Outs"

     More often than none we are put in a very tight spot when we are faced with an important decision to “call” or “fold” a hand in poker. I'm going to show you how to calculate your odds of improving your hand to help you make the right decision with the information that is given.

    First thing we need to do is count the number of “Outs” we have. The slang word “Outs” implies to the number of cards that can help you improve your hand. For example; if you have AK and the flop is Q,10, 2, then we need a Jack to make a straight. There are four Jacks in a deck so you have four “Outs” to make a straight. Each “Out” gives us about 2% chance to show-up on the turn and 2% chance to show-up on the river. The 2% is derived from 1 out of 47. 1 being our “Out” and the 47 representing the remaining unknown cards out of the total 52. 1 out of 47 is about 2%. Since we have four “Outs”; multiply 4 (Outs) by 2 (percentage of 1 “Out”) to get 8. So, the percentage that a Jack will show-up on the turn is 8% and the percentage that a Jack will show-up on the river is also 8%. So, in total we have a 16% chance that we can improve our hand to  a “Straight” on the turn or the river.

    Once we have figured out the percentage of improving our hand and ultimately our winning percentage, now we can make the right decisions to call or fold. In our last example we only had 16% to win so we must get at least six to one on our investment to make a call. Since our chances of winning are low, then we must have a high payout ratio. If the potential win doesn't fall within the ratio then the right decisions is to fold. Staying away from hands that have a low winning percentage and a low payout can save you from going busto.
    The next time you are faced with a difficult decision to call or fold, just count your outs and do the math. I bet you, you hit a poker Homerun.

Play Hard, Play Smart and Count your “Outs”