#Bitcoin #2018 Price Projection Using Monte Carlo Random Walks: ~50,000 USD

alirajput (27)in #bitcoin • 7 years ago

#Monte #Carlo #statistical #projection method, combined with what are known as random walks, Xoel López Barata developed some pretty fun #bitcoin #price scenarios for the end of this year.

Xoel López Barata recently #published a pretty great thought #experiment. Mr. Barata ran a simulated price #projection for all of this year, #attempting to figure out just where bitcoin will end in 2018. It is “my opinion and not #investment advice,” he urges. And it’s always good to remind readers past #performance is no indication of #future returns, as #life seems to always have other plans.

#Mr. Barata used what’s known as a Monte Carlo method. The nerdiest among us will really enjoy following his inputs on #Github. He uses daily returns, price variants, but doesn’t assume a normal distribution and instead notes “extreme events have a higher probability of happening.” The Monte Carlo method is usually attributed to a WWII Greek-American scientist #Nicholas Metropolis.