Tech News: AI and Its Exponential Advancement Explained
If you are familiar with Moore’s Law, you would understand that according to the law, the development of computing power follows an exponential curve, doubling in price-performance (that is, speed per unit cost) every 18 months or so.
The thing is people most don't have the same capacity to double their own brain power every 18 months. This creates a rift between business and humanity vs technology. Microchips are getting smaller and faster and cheaper at an exponential rate. Technology is becoming more advanced at an exponential rate but what about humans? How will we be fit to be its keeper or is it already too late and have the cards be set in motion for that to change and rather it will become ours?
A lot of strategically-minded business people who can see around corners in their own industries, don't have the ability to grasp what exponential improvement really means. And a lot is riding on this exponential curve, but one technology that is particularly benefiting from it is artificial intelligence.
The graph above shows a logarithmic chart, go back and look at it... Doesn't it simply look like a linear line going onwards and upwards? Well take this data and plot it as it is meant to be seen:
Now apply what is possible today with AI and what will be possible in the future. If your jaw hasn't dropped to the floor yet I must not have explained things well enough here!
The challenge, then, for anyone planning for a future driven by computing’s exponential growth is fighting their brain’s flawed interpretations. Hard as it may sound, you need to hold all three charts in your mind at once—the visual consistency of the logarithmic chart and the drama but deceptive scale of the linear charts—to truly appreciate the power of exponential growth. Because the past will always look flat, and the future will always look vertical.
How can we as human beings even begin to prepare for the exponential growth that will take place in AI in the coming century. How will we ensure our place in a world where machines are more capable than we are at almost everything?
These are questions we should ask now... These are questions we should begin to find answers for...
Thanks for reading!
Source:
Why Most of Us Fail to Grasp Coming Exponential Gains in AI - SingularityHub
Nice post. These are also some of the areas that I am very fascinated about. What are your thoughts about Moore's law being declared dead or at least very strained over the last few years?
For instance, I think that many can recognize that a new computer is not so much stronger than a PC a few years old. In the 90'ies, a few years would be the difference between 200 mhz and 800 mhz.
For more, see for instance
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601441/moores-law-is-dead-now-what/
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yes sir, in fact AI is going to eat most of the job in near future (Though the quality of work they produce is just phenomenal).....
If we will look at IBM machine, that can replace crores of advocate and doctors with a result accuracy of 90%...........definitely there will be many unemployed people will hover around the world.
Again self driven cars will get job of many drivers (This may take another decade to actually come into picture.)
There is always a question : Human is making AI so powerful that, it may soon replace many jobs......
BTC has given component manufacturing a stiff standard to quality and efficiency. Probably one of the greatest innovation eras in computing.
I mean in twenty years we have whole computers thesize of credit cards... so... yeah what's next postage stamp octo-core fanless PCs?
I wonder if it will be more gradual as we integrate artifical life in to everyday living. Placing it aroung 2038. I am sure AI will be sentient by then. They won't work for you but they will share the mining profits with their human.
Great Post! As a computer engineering student this stuff excites me! The reason AI has been able to get so much better is the result of parallel computing. AI is just lots of statistical calculations and optimization calculations. thanks to Nvidia and AMD's GPUs this has gotten a lot easier to compute.