We've all heard the phrase "Just the luck of the draw" thrown around in sporting parlance. It's often used to brush off a bit of bad luck, or even good fortune. But let's take a little bit of a closer look at what that means for us here in the Steemit @aflfantasy Classic League.

What I have below is a way to attribute a value to just how lucky (or unlucky) we all are over the course of the season.

So how does it work? At the end of each round, I rank everyone's score in order from highest to lowest, then each score is attributed a Win Value based on the number of teams you potentially could have beaten, for example if you top scored, you would beat 19 out of 19 possible opponents, so you would be credited with 1 win. If you bottom score, you'd beat 0 out of 19, so you would get 0 wins. If you have the 5th highest score, you'd beat 15 out of 19 opponents, so you'd get 15/19ths of a win (0.789). Once each team is allocated their Win Value, we can then compare
the Win Value (or statistically probable estimated wins) to the Actual Wins. A score where Actual Wins > Expected Wins is a Lucky Score. A score where Actual Wins < Expected Wins is an Unlucky Score.

So how did we all fare in Week 14?

@Mmeow loaded up and top scored this week, so she gets 1 Expected Win, and for the second week in a row, having a complete valid team means @nzl19500 has avoided the donut, this time it was @Dblstr who took that honour with 0 expected wins. The rest of us fall somewhere in between.

The graphic below, shows us how we all went comparatively this week (highlighted in yellow), as well as the overall Luck Ladder (highlighted in green)

upload gambar

So as we can see, BraphB is still on top, with a differential of +2.526 more wins than expected, Lockout (@o07) & @Mmeow are also both right up there, each with more than 2 more wins than expected. At the other end of the scale, Steemit Huskies (@vicspics) has lifted himself off the canvas with what could be described as a lucky win this week. The dubious honour of unluckiest now sits with Playing for Draft Picks (@shesasaint) with 2.790 less wins than expected. It's pretty tight at the bottom too, with the Huskies, @Just2Random & @Kulate all with more than 2 wins less than their respective expected totals.

So that's the luck of the draw for Round 14. I'll update this each week through the course of the season so we can all keep track of how we're travelling...

If you find this even remotely interesting, leave me a comment. If there's anything I could explain better, let me know.

Cheers,
Sparkesy