Financial and Crypto Markets are on fire 🔥 today - But I can't help to think something is off !
China's Securities Times front page on Monday said that fostering a “healthy” bull market after the pandemic is now more important to the economy than ever.
Chinese social media exploded with searches for the term “open a stock account,” with bullish sentiment also lifting the yuan.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 5.7%, the biggest advance since 2015.
“The willingness of investors to look through the current disruption to an anticipated recovery this quarter is imperiled by still rising virus infection rates,” said Michael McCarthy, a markets strategist at CMC Markets Plc in Sydney.
Leverage at its highest since 2016 (Spoiler: This is not good in for the medium term!)
Worldwide COVID19 Trends
More than 9 million people in the U.K. have been furloughed since the lockdown started in March. The government has been paying 80% of salaries, with companies able to top it up to 100%.
COVID19 is trending back up in the US, especially in Trump’s states.
COVID19 began to have a negative impact on Trump’s approval rating for the past 2 months. Being so close to the election, Trumps is feeling nervous on a topic he did not manage well and that will be hard to get out from.
Latinos and Blacks have been three times as likely to become infected and twice as likely to die from the virus based on the new numbers, which provide detailed characteristics of 640,000 infections detected in almost 1,000 U.S. counties, the paper said. The pattern runs across age groups, it said.
Well I won't go into the socioeconomic who definitely plays a bigger role than the skin color (are you noticing they did not speak of Asian Americans).
Basically the poorer you are, the more chances you have to get it, this is the same trend all over the world (Europe, LATAM and even Asia).
What are your thoughts? Could COVID19 take the 2020 election away from D.Trump even against a (let’s be honest) weak and not very charismatic J.Biden?
As you can see, these different hotspots are not slowing down…
Many parts of the world (Victoria region in Australia, Barcelona, some parts of Israel, US Southern states…) are going back into full or partial lockdowns.
If you ask me this is the worst situation for the economy: a continuous ON-OFF.
We need to fin a treatment in the short term to decrease the death-rate. And later (12-16 months) for a vaccine.
The only positive is as US election is coming up, D.Trump, the FED, the ECB and all the other central banks around the world are going to print so much money until year-end, this is going to ben crazy 😂.
Well, we have been talking about the economy, what is the link to the Crypto world?
If you have been following last week’s Crypto and Financial Markets you must have read that the correlation between the two has never been higher in the past years.
This is worrying as I get less and less positive about Stock Market.
It seems that we are in the last Bull run for the following reasons:
- The COVID19 external shock has been contained thanks to monetary and budget policies
- People are still being laid-off and we should see the impact on the consumption very soon as Government subsidies will start to fade/lower
- We have seen an increase in day traders/retail investors through Robinhood or other platforms in the US and in China. This fueled the bubble on some specific stocks such as Tesla, Nikola or even Hertz
- Citizens (even Americans) have been saving more for the past 2-3 months than they used to as they are worried for the future. This is a self-fulfilling prophecy, as they will spend less, businesses will struggle, therefore, laying-off more employees that will consume less, etc…
But for now the party is going and we should enjoy it as these times of irrationality can last for quite a while !
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There is a "curse" on BTC price that translates in a down market for the month of july, if this happens and the "high correlation" between the stock and crypto markets get into play we might see the start of a cold and ugly bear market for stocks. Mostly because the printing policies will dry out and the real prices will start to kick in.
some are to crash and others are to skyrocket...
Indeed hehe, all cannot moon
@vlemon yes , but their is uncertainty in every one mind regarding the covid-19 situation what will happen , how we will live life etc etc their are lots of questions in mind. Many people are struggling in this situation for their basic needs. We need to keep calm and let this go time go way.
@vlemon yes , but their is uncertainty in every one mind regarding the covid-19 situation what will happen , how we will live life etc etc their are lots of questions in mind. Many people are struggling in this situation for their basic needs. We need to keep calm and let this go time go way.
Personally, I believe that the strength of CriptoCoin is to be a payment gateway; With this I mean that the BTC is a large weapon when it comes to exchanging a product between two people (who do not have access to banks). Trade is a source of wealth, and the currency in which he turns it changes over time. Many believe that the BTC is a way to accumulate value; But personally see it as a way to transfer value. As for gold 2.0 ..... in my opinion it was to create a bubble; While BCT-based trade for Venezuela was a blessing.
Dear @vlemon
Solid read. Topics related to technology and economy are my favourite ones.
It seem that neither US, EU or China want to allow stock markets to get a hit. And they continue pumping that bubble. Interesting times we're living in.
You nailed it. Fully agree with you.
ps. when actually US elections are taking place? I thought that we're at least 1 year away.
Upvoted already ;)
Yours, Piotr