Trading Strategy: STAY AWAY from ICOs this summer.
Today we explore why investing in ICOs this summer is a bad idea.
Bitcoin’s recent bearishness and uncertain future (I) has led large early summer ICOs to seriously under-perform (II). Be smart and wait for BTC to make a move before considering investing into an ICO (III).
I) Bitcoin riding the bear to an uncertain future:
Since hitting $3000k in June 11th, the BTC market has been consolidating around the $2500 magnet area after bouncing of a major trend-line.
Bitcoin’s next market move is now everyone’s guess.
While the smaller (1D) time frame paints a bullish-ish picture:
The larger timeframe (1W) shows BTC on the verge of a massive correction:
This uncertainty has led to considerable bearishness in most altcoins:
And especially among the altcoins whose markets pumped on POLONIEX:
To make things worse, BTC is headed for a make-or-break event (user activated soft fork or UASF) which could potentially end up splitting the networks into multiple coins and potentially trigger a cyber-warfare with catastrophic consequences for the entire crypto-market.
For more on this, this read is advised:
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/countdown-segwit-these-are-dates-keep-eye/
Meanwhile ICOs have been under-performing.
II) ICOs riding the bear along BTC:
Since the BAT ICO, which returned great chances of profits for its contributors:
Subsequent large and over-hyped ICOs have been under-performing:
Or have flat out translated into an immediate loss to the great chagrin of their investors:
The difference between the BAT ICO and the STATUS/BANCOR/TenX ICOs:
BAT ICO took place in a BTC bull-run, the other did not:
Conclusion: ICOs are only profitable in a bullish BTC market. Period.
Which brings me to my strategy regarding ICOs.
III) My ICO gameplan for the summer (July - August):
My gameplan is to be cautious:
- Halt contribution into any ICO during the months of July and August regardless of BTC's price.
- Keep an eye on BTC and watch out for a potential breakdown of the support level on the smaller time frame.
- In case of a break out: hedge SOME of my BTC into cash, weather the storm and buy back at lower support ($1300?)
- In case BTC turns bullish again after August: then I will resume participating in some ICOs which I will flip on price discovery for immediate profit and hedge 50% in cash and 50% in BTC.
And you, what is your plan?
Trade safe guys, and please follow and upvote if you like the content.
Dan @tradealert
even if its bearish now, but there are still some good ICOs , eg TenX Pay which has already working card to spend your crypto and earn some rewards or cashback from accumulated spending of all the cardholders.
Ten X project is good but the PAY token value is nearly back down to ICO price and could drop further if BTC dumps.
Check this out : https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/tenx/
ICO price was around $0.8
very good analysis, i think that steem is a safe one isnt it?
Thanks @charles1. Steem's ICO was done a long time ago. If you talking about the price of Steem, unfortunately its likely it will drop with the rest of crypto if BTC plunges.
Follow and upvote if you like the content mate :)
Good point followed and upvoted , check out my last post on steemit (show some love too and follow )
I think that steem is undervalued and will increase in value by year end and more next year..a good holding strategy
I am following you as well, your blog looks like quality. Yeah I mean in the long run it will keep on going up imo, holding and buying dips is a good strategy with Steem because it has concrete utility... unlike most crypto :)
I agree @tradealert unlike most top altcoins, steem has a very powerful backing and community and is highly undervalued now..price will certainly go up later