The REAL reasons why ETHEREUM crashed

in #cryptocurrency9 years ago (edited)

Why has Ethereum crashed? The Internet wants answers!
Let’s see if technical analysis can help.

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Reason 1 - ETH’s price is correlated to BTC’s price:

This is THE number one reason for the ETH crash. ETH gets his value from BTC. Period.
Charts don’t lie guys:

BTC USD.png

I should also add that while ETH’s price is currently correlated to BTC’s price, the opposite does not seem to be true so that while a BTC dump would wreck havoc on ETH's price, a ETH crash would only see lots of money flock back to BTC.

As much as ETH fanatics are chanting the death of BTC on Reddit, the reality is that the actual death of BTC would spell a world of pain for every single altcoin as they would experience a dramatic loss of their $ value and that is because BTC’s fiat value underlines the fiat value of the whole cryptoverse.

Reason 2 - Dumb money loves trading ETH:

People are very excited about ETH and one has to admit that ETH is a potentially revolutionary technology.

BUT...

The recent hype around ETH has drawn lots of mainstream adopters to ETH, people who do not have technical knowledge of trading, people who can't read chart, people who treat trading like gambling.
These lambo dreamers came late to the party, bought ETH at a considerable premium ($300?400$?) and dumped their bags at the first sign of blood on the chart, thus accelerating the crash.

Yt.png

The hard truth is, the days of +6000% gains in ETH are behind us folks and those who bought back down in the gutter are the only ones who have made serious money in the ETH/fiat market and, in my opinion, these people who hold cheap ETH should seriously consider selling SOME of their coins to lock in hard profit before the altcoin bubble pops.

Reason 3 – ETH/$ markets are not very liquid:

Liquidity is the volume of activity on a market at a given time: ie buy orders placed in fiat/BTC against sell orders placed in tokens (BTC, ETH,etc.)

High liquidity translates to high resistance to dumps as large sell orders can easily be absorbed by existing buy orders on the market.
Low liquidity on the other hand means that very large sell orders will have to buy a bigger portion of the order book to fill entirely.

The problem here is that not every ETH/fiat is equal in terms of liquidity, compare the most liquid ETH/fiat market, the Korean exchange Bithumb, with the liquidity on G-DAX which is the market mover on the BTC/$ market:

ETH liquid.PNG

Now if you want to convert a large sum of ETH to dollars (from an ICO for example), you will have to sell on G-DAX since Bitfinex has suspended $ withdrawals but as we've seen, G-DAX is a fairly illiquid market (despite being THE most liquid ETH/$ market).

Selling large amounts regardless of liquidity unfortunately exposes you to slippage (a very large portion of the order book is used to fill a massive sell order).

A prime example of how slippage can wreck a market was the infamous GDAX “flash crash” when a massive market sell order of about 100k ETH sold all the way down to $13 before pending stop orders were activated, which contributed to crash the price further down to $0.13.

59567fb1ac4bc.png

So what happened?

Well, my best guest is that a large ICO start-up (Bancor? BAT? STATUS?) dumped their ETH to protect the $ value of their ICO funds against ETH's recent volatility. They used GDAX which was the most liquid ETH/$ market at the time, placed a market sell-order, clicked… and the rest is history.

To summarize, because of the reasons stated above, investing in ETH is a very risky move right now because of the extreme volatility of the ETH markets and because the price is so overvalued.
Trading ETH thought is exceptionally profitable because of this same volatility.

If you love ETH I suggest you wait until the price of ETH goes back into accumulation (price action goes flat for an extended period of time) to invest your money into it.

In the meantime, keep a close eye on BTC price at BItcoinWisdom if you want to know where ETH’s price is going.

That’s it for today guys, please comment and upvote if you liked the content.

Dan @tradealert

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I really liked your interpretation of how ETH crashed. GDAX certainly was one of those factors we can isolate, but GDAX's trading volume compared to that of the whole industry isn't enough to pull the prices down.

I see the reason behind this as the growth of the prices in a parabolic effect. If it shoots 45x in six months, it will be predetermined to lose at least 50% of it's growth in that span of time.

Some say,
"What goes up, must come down."

This is a wonderful example. If the prices had a nice, smooth incline, then we could say a single dump in a VERY VERY shallow market would've caused this. But buying volume has slowed down for the most part before it crash mid this month. So I think primarily, it's your number 2 reason.

I wrote an article I researched myself that might interest you. Check it out when you get the time. It's about ICOs today.

https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@stjohngo/power-in-concept

Thanks man, reading your article now

Excellent, balanced analysis and summary - hopefully we will see more articles like this.

Thanks man, feel free to read my other articles, I share strategies on trading and investment :)

I just read all of the articles you posted and I like your approach, this would have saved me time versus watching a number of you tube videos. There is a lot of information out there but I like your balanced approach: pros/cons, trader/investor, etc. It is also interesting to take this into consideration with macro economic trends, inflation/deflation cycles and what not. It will be interesting to see how cryptos respond to a 2000 or 2008 type downturn.

I can definitely see a global crypto crash coming if BTC breaks down below $2250, in this case cash will be every trader's best friend

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