Bitcoin's Floor May Well Be $6000.
Hi traders, I might have been wrong to call a crash to $5000.
Bitcoin.
About a week back, I called a crash to $5k after Bitcoin started to break out following the postponement of SEC's ETF decision.
To my surprise, the crash didn't happen and I am left reviewing my views on the market and wondering if I haven't been victim of exuberant bearishness (cheap price greed), waiting for a crash to $5k that would never materialize, similar to the way Drogo waited his all life for a barbarian invasion that never came in the novel The Tartar Steppe.
But anyways, I have no problems changing opinions as long it keeps me profitable so let's have a look at what the market is telling us now.
Well, the $6k level has provided support to the price on 4 different occasions during this bear trend:
Or to put it differently the highly symbolic $100 billion market cap has been defended on multiple occasions now:
We're now forming a rounded bottom reminiscent to the one that formed when Bitcoin hit $6000 back around April 2018:
And the price has made a higher low with regard to the last dip ($5800).
So clearly there is a bullish-ish argument to be made here, maybe the beginning of a reversal or at least an indication that BTC has hit a floor.
But I want to stay cautious and time my entry as best I can.
First, there's still the possibility that such bottom transforms into yet another inverted head and shoulder pattern similar to the one that formed in June/July:
If such consolidation happen, Bitcoin could probably experience one last leg down, possibly to retest $6k then consolidate going into September and closer to the much anticipated Bitcoin CBOE decision.
Finally there's still the possibility that Bitcoin could break down this massive descending triangle (and those are high probability bearish patterns) and break $6k support on high volume to plunge to $5000.
However, I'd say that given the latest price data there is now a better probability of a slight bullish reversal/ accumulation (maybe 60%), at least until some more fundamental news come to the market in the form of more adoption/ ETF news, etc.
But back to you traders, do you see $6k as the bottom or is the worst of the bear trend yet to come? Leave your comments!
Until next time,
FØx.
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by FØx
Nice post. From what I’m reading, I think most people think the September ETF decision will get postponed again...which makes me think it may actually get approved. Wouldn’t that be something.
Haha, that would be interesting indeed.
Bitcoin may very well take a bounce higher, but I personally would be waiting for an established higher high and higher low. Trying to catch the bottom is exciting, but risky business. I see a move to lower levels of $5k to be the most likely scenario, but I stay nimble in this market. Thanks for sharing.
Thanks for stopping by mate, nothing wrong with being cautious :)
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Hey @tradealert , I like your analysis. My theory on things like as to whether BTC dropped to 5k, or it holds at 6k, ... my theory is that at such junctures, technical analysis stops working because whales take over the market and they just decide what level they are willing to support the price of BTC. So I wouldn't feel bad if the technicals didn't turn out like how they looked.
So for me, how I would attempt to gauge a 6k break, would be my speculating about the depth of whale pockets, and their willingness to buy at that level. Like if a news event hit that would rock the whale's perspective on BTC, then some whales might dump it below 6k.
But in this decline the volumes get lower and lower, and the whales still might support at 6k, but they would be buying less and less, and as for people bidding things up, it may just become more scarce going forward for the next several months.