Crypto Analysis | BTC pattern still holding
Good day Steemians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
In last post's analysis of the BTC and Steem market we argued that we would see a further downward movement in the mid-term, however short-term gains were possible. Over the last few days BTC made two digit gains and got stopped by a strong resistance line at this level, following a similar pattern which has been established over the last months. There are two reasons for why I am still predicting a lower price in BTC/USD as well for most other altcoins.
- As the market is heavily influenced by fractals - repeating patterns - we have to look at the past to see the future. When BTC first came out of the bear market in late 2018, this turn was highlighted by a fractal which I believe is repeating now. Why this fractal? For one, it resembles the general BTC/USD fractal and secondly, it is the first pattern marking the bull market giving it importance for the bigger movement we are currently in. Below you can see that this pattern corrected itself to the 0.236 Fibonacci ratio.
- When we look even further back, the start of the bull market in 2015, we a very similar pattern: the first movement saw a correction back to 0.236, which indicates to me that this is a strong pattern.
I would nerveless argue that BTC won't fall all the way back to 0.236. The main reason being that we have a support line coming up from the first fractal of 2019.
One can see that the 0.382 (another important ratio) converges with that support line at around 5.500$. So 5.500$ should be the target area for future price movements. This could still take a couple of months.
If indeed, BTC corrects back to this level past movements would suggest that we probably won't see further corrections as low as this. The 0.5 and 0.618 ratios would then become more important.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!