Mid-day Analysis - Bitcoin (BTCUSD) - March 27, 2018

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Hello fellow Traders, Steemites and Interested Parties.

As Bitcoin continues is downward move (yes, still not calling it a bear market until it falls through long-term trend resistance. See previous posts) I look for little trades opportunities along the way.  

At present I'm seeing a possible set-up in the next couple 4-hour candles.  Take a look at the chart below.

BTCUSD - 4 hr. Regular Price Scale

Going off of the swing high and low from the drop over the past 6 days we appear to have stopped at a decision zone (a.k.a fakeout reversal in my opinion).  As you can see, price on the 4 hour candle can't seem to close above the .236 Fibonacci level from the most recent swing high/low reversal zone I'm looking at.   

What this looks like is a smaller version of what we've seen over the past month and half or so -  i.e. a double top. 

How Might This Play Out Over the Next Day or So?

With that in mind, my gut tells me that the next few candles range in this area for a bit.  I would even expect the bounce to increase into tomorrow morning.  My guess is that we see about $8,400 before continuing downward to test or (God forbid) break the long-term trend line.   

Why $8,400 (ish)? Take a look below...

That's why.  

Not only is that price area at the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the short-term swing low, it's also right at a pretty strong horizontal resistance area.  Notice the amount of times $8,400 has changed form support to resistance?  Yeah, me too.  There is something important about it.  

My Plan

It changes as the chart changes.  For certain, I have my eye on the mid-$7,000's as that is going to be a critical area (again, see "Big Picture" posts from the last couple of days).  For a possible short-term trade I am looking for an opportunity to open a short around $8,450 with the idea that I will likely close it around $7,900 as I expect it to range between the two horizontal trend lines pictured in the chart above.

After that...

                 Image Source:media.giphy.com

Yeah, it's nail biting time watching for possible long-term trend support...yeah, I'm not gonna say it.

If you like reading my analysis let me know what you think.  How are you handling the recent Bitcoin moves?  Are you just holding?  Do you trade differently?  Do you hate my charts?  Let me know.

Until next time: Happy Trading!