Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Big Picture - Bull or Bear? Continued

Good morning Steemcats!

With any luck the weekend treated everyone well.

Here We Are, Still Flirting With Long-term Trend Support

As of this very second, we are still in bull territory but bears have shown they really want to entice us to the other side.  This week is going to tell a story.  A story of which side the next major phase of price movement is going to be concentrated.  

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A daily close below the trend support will be a pretty strong indicator of more downside to come.  If it can't recover, with ample volume and a weekly candle closes below trend support the indication of more downside becomes a lot stronger.  Obviously, I don't want that, I have a good amount of money invested in this technology and I don't want to have to wait for it to appreciate but we just have to move with the market.  The market cares not what I want. 

One thing that is (sort-of) a saving grace is that there are a lot of instances where Bitcoin will totally surprise you but I try to keep carefully optimistic.  Staying grounded and reacting tends to keep a trader in the game as opposed to being proactive and overly hopeful.

BTCUSD Weekly - Log-Scale

With that said, it's probably a good idea to take a quick look at the weekly chart. 

The main thing to notice is the initial move on this new weekly candle is lower.  If you go back two years, look at the daily chart, you'll notice that roughly 80% of the time, the weekly candle ends on a high note after starting red.  Now, last week represented 1 instance of that other 20% where the week started red and ended red.  So, 2 weeks in a row would be a good indication of an end of that trend but hey, the name of the game here is to look for as many indicators as you can find especially where nobody else is looking.

Conclusion

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Will this be the week that bears completely topple the bulls?  We shall see.  There is no way to know one way or the other but it is safe to say that the $7900 (ish) level is very important and this week may test the bulls resolve long term.  

My plan: to really watch that $7900 area looking at volume of up and down moves throughout the week on the 4 hour (next post will go over that time frame).  Volume in one direction as compared to volume in the other direction is how I will play the week.  If over-all volume on number of green candles is larger than that on red candles I will be looking to go long on a bounce from long-term trend support.  

On the other side of the trade, if it starts to look like a breakdown is inevitable, I will watch for the retest of trend support turning resistance for a short entry.  

In either case, may your life be filled with perfect entry's, exits, and most importantly, abundance.

Please feel free to leave me a comment with your thought's, feelings, hopes, dreams and fears.

Happy trading!