2019 Is Going To Be An Interesting Year

As we embark upon the close of 2018, it is time to look ahead. What are we going to encounter in the next year?

From a technological perspective, things move ahead at a rapid rate although it is not realized over a 12 month period. The best way to look at this is in incremental periods of 5 yeras. Technology is evolutionary in that it builds upon itself. It also has a human component to it that slows things down. For technology to really make an impact, it needs to be accepted by the masses. That can take some time.

Personally, I feel the biggest thing we will see in 2019 is a continued erosion of the global economy. I do not foresee us making it another 12 months without a recession hitting. The western nations' economic progress the last decade was mostly the result of financial engineering i.e. cheap money. This is going to come home to roost at some point.

We no longer are in business cycles. Instead, we need to watch the credit cycle. Interest rates are rising and not likely to stop anytime soon. At some point, servicing the debt takes a toll on companies (and individuals). This will increase the number of defaults, which starts to put pressure on the entire system.

We could be seeing the start of this in the United States with the frackers. Their debt load is enormous and oil prices have plummeted. This industry is capital intensive which means that credit cycles really affect it.

We are already seeing the markets bounce around wildly. Even after a large pullback, the outlook still is not that great. Growth is slowing, that cannot be denied.

This could be setting up a perfect storm. Real estate is already affected and not likely to turn upward. Many major markets are still extremely overpriced in the United States. Bonds are not the safe haven they always were. Equities are overvalued if their earnings pull back to any great degree. High yield assets were already pushed up as low interest rates caused investors to seek higher returns.

Essentially, we are looking at the "bubble of everything:".

Source

Of course, there is one segment that is not in a bubble. In fact, cryptocurrency spent the entire year deflating a bubble. The prices completely collapsed this year. Could we see the as a viable option when everything else goes to hell?

Keep in mind, I could be completely amiss with my estimates here. It is best to not underestimate how long the elites can keep things propped up. However, there comes a point where it gets out of hand even for them. The smart money (read inside) is out while the sheep are left holding the bag.

Nevertheless, there are signs that the dam is breaking. There might be one more prop job in store for us but I feel it will be short lived. This will create a host of issues across the board.

For many, the media has already lost all credibility. The recent events with Der Spiegel with the award winning journalist admitting that at least 1/4 the stories he wrote were fabrications drove another stake in the mainstream. The media likes to degrade the "skeptics" or "deniers" since they are the ones who question the propaganda they espouse. Of course, the masses tend to join in since they believe what they are served up. However, this might be changing.

Supporting the system is chasing after fool's gold. Another recession, which I feel will be worse than the one a decade ago, will really wake a lot of people up. The entire system is a mirage. What people are taught to believe is basically a lie. The system is not going to take care of anyone. The battle between Wall Street and Main Street ended a long time ago. The bankers and their ilk won.

My prediction is the next recession will signal a release of many different things that are brewing. There is great debate about the effects of technological automation on jobs. I think it will not longer be questioned once the next recession hits. Corporations will replace the labor with automation. Suddenly, the ROI becomes acceptable to the CFOs.

At the same time, I think an alternative system like cryptocurrency will also be validated. We see some of this in places like Venezuela. While that gave crypto a bump in usage, imagine if we see circumstances like that in a country like Germany or France. There is already unrest in the later.

Perhaps we are being given some insight into the year ahead. After a year of intense FUD, we see an article in Time, the epitome of mainstream media publications. It talked about how the true value of Bitcoin is overshadowed by the scams caused by greed and speculation.

The aforementioned article claims that “speculation, fraud, and greed in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry have overshadowed the real, liberating potential of Satoshi Nakamoto’s invention.”

According to the article’s author, Bitcoin “can be a valuable financial tool as a censorship-resistant medium of exchange.”

https://cointelegraph.com/news/major-american-magazine-time-column-reports-about-bitcoins-liberating-potential

What the hell? This is Time Magazine and it published that about Bitcoin?

Make no mistake, there is little put out by the mainstream media that does not fit the narrative of what they are trying to accomplish. The fact that they scared the world about cryptocurrency and suddenly Bitcoin "can be a valuable financial tool".

Hold on tightly, 2019 is going to be a very interesting year.

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All expressed here is my opinion and not to be inferred as financial advice in any manner.

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