I told you so & ludicrous dreams
My daughter still isn't settled so I have a bit more time to write. I remember the first 6 months after she was born and her crying through the nights, my wife unable to get out of bed and me doing the majority of the tasks, day and night. Simpler times as there was no choices to make, it was all compulsory. My only 'luxury' was that between the screams when she did sleep, I would ave a chance to watch some series. She was born in August, I joined Steem in the following January. If I had found it 4-5 months earlier, things might be different again.
I really want this place to work out for at least on reason and that is, I don't want my wife to say;
"I told you so."
Truth be told, she has never said it but she thinks it, I know. When I am talking about decentralized communities and coins that could one day be worth enough that we can choose our life rather than suffer it, I know that she doesn't believe me. How could she? Is it really imaginable, can anyone really visualize what it means to have 100 dollar Steem? From the current point, that is a ~25 billion dollar market cap and my account would be worth 2.5 million dollars.
How can she truly imagine that? How can she possibly picture that me sitting here day and night between all the other things I must do in this life amount to that kind of value? It is insanity to even indulge in such thoughts. A hundred Steem earned today would have a 10,000 dollar value in that future. People concern themselves with what the whales are getting but how many people with 1000 Steem put in the work for it to be worth 100,000 dollars one day? If it happens, Ludicrous.
I don't like to compare anything to Bitcoin but, people did say the same about that once upon a time, and that has a current market cap of 115 Billion. It isn't going to stop there for long though most likely. When the crypto market has the potential to be worth multiple trillions, the potential for one large social chain being worth a measly 25 Billion seems very doable, doesn't it? Is it so ludicrous? Steem has the chance to support a massive amount of users and an enormous amount of transactions and this means that there is potential value well and above the 243 million it currently holds on digital paper.
It would be nice to skip ahead to those times wouldn't it? I wonder if looking back from there we would still remember all of the nonsense that these times held or would we reminisce with golden tinted lenses and fondness of times past. It is hard to say but I am sure that there are a number of people in this world who said to people, buy BTC or ETH when it was cents on the dollar and now say, "I told you so."
I am also sure that there are people who bought BTC and ETH for cents and sold it when it went to a dollar believing that it was as high as magical internet money could possibly go. Do they have regrets now? Well, that depends doesn't it? Did they buy back at 2 dollars and then hold or did they sell again at 4? Eventually, most people are going to miss their buys somewhere, aren't they? It is a game of Hodl chicken.
None of this nonsense is certain yet we do take it very seriously at times. At least, I know I do as there is such a future in all of this for everyone but we bicker and squabble over trivialities and small differences. We worry about what everyone else is doing while forgetting that we ourselves need to act and do, create, explore and learn how to approach this new world we are part of developing.
Honestly, I can't completely imagine what happens with 100 dollar Steem. I have been in debt so long and awake for so long that I can't come to terms with what it would be to wake up without the feeling that the executioners blade will fall to end me. I do hope however that one day, I will be able to sit on the balcony of a little home by the water with my wife over a glass of wine and say, I told you so, honey.
If that day ever arrives, there will be thousands upon thousands of people able to the same. Don't you find that incredible? Isn't that something worth striving for? With the right organisation and imagination, what could a motivated community be able to do with that kind of value? What kinds of things would we as a community be able to fund at local and international levels?
Ludicrous dreams not worth thinking about.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
My daughter is up again - I wonder what reading this will mean to her one day.
I needed this bit of encouragement and motivation, thank you for that ❤️.
I’m one of those that believes that anything worth doing doesn’t come easy.. and those that put in the work, practice patience and keep the faith are always those that come out ahead. It’s the dreamers after all that change the world.. not the nay sayers. It’s those that see the dream and ignore being called crazy when going after said dream that finally see those things become reality.
This place is special, and not just because it’s something that has never been done before, but because the huge group of dreamers that exist here.. those that see the potential and have the determination (or possibly stubbornness 🤷♀️) to stick it out. I’m just glad I’m stubborn enough to still be around, and have no plans on giving up anytime soon.
Cheers to dreams and I told you so’s
Steem on 😉
There are no guarantees but the world is built by dreamers willing to work to make things possible. Despite the problems here (and likely always), it is all part of a larger movement that hopefully takes us toward a more tangible reality. SMTs for example will allow more versatility to connect the blockchain to real world actions in various ways and the more that happens, the more who come across. Once the ball is rolling, it will snowball rapidly. I don't think people realise how fast this can climb given the right conditions :)
That makes at least two of us :)
... now, 5 am, time for bed.
Oh mate! I just hope that could happen with a faster pace than the abysmally dreadful hyperinflation wild horse onto we are all currently galloping bareback here in my poor 'rich country'.
Shit mate! I wish the same too. But without the most minimal intention to rain in your parade nor be a party pooper...
I really don't mean to explore the entire feasible 'physics' of that thought yet my friend. Because to be honest, sometimes I wonder and I'm still not sure if in order to create a true environment in which everything has the same weight, we'll have to suck first all the air out of that upbeat vault and then, we prolly will die quicker from suffocation in the middle of the vacuum to allow those experiments be possible.
I apologize for this comment. But you already know me. I can't help being a chronic old fart 'defensive pessimist' };)
A reset is required at some point.
The experiments I think are a necessary evil as even if there was a decent idea, most of consequence will not really back it until there is some data behind it. But, I don't hold my breath ;)
True mate. But I'm already praying hoping to see 'that some point' begins before I have to powerdown non stop without really wanting to do it. 😟
On other hand, you know I'm all for experiments. But sheez mate, it's taking too much time to get some hopeful & useful data behind it as to back up & support our survival where we are standing now in the walking life.
I beg your pardon mate. But in all honesty, as you can see, these last days looks like actually I'm not in the best esoteric moods. 🤝
Honestly, Steem is currently one of the most undervalued coins I know about. We used to go back and forth from #27 to #33 all the time and now we are stuck at #39 - #40.
It only took 9 months for Steem to go from 8 cents to $7. If we experienced another jump like that over the next 9 months that would put Steem at a value of over $80 per coin.
This is why I've decided to sell off some stake when Steem hits $75 per coin.
A lot of people think that Bitcoin's last dip was the last consolidation of the bear run, and if you look at the charts this could be a real possibility.
There have been 5 sequential crashes that have all been a little bit higher than the last over the past 3.5 months. The $6000 support has proved itself so many times.
Extrapolating this information, it looks like we might have another crazy run up during summer time. When you consider that SMTs should be out by then, this is even more likely for Steem in particular.
Here's to staying bullish!
That being said, my GF also has an unspoken, "I doubt it," attitude. Most people I talk to about crypto have this attitude.
I need to work out a point where I will sell some too. As of yet I haven't benefited at all financially but life isn't the greatest so I should reduce debt at the very least. Maybe buy my wife some flowers.
I dont know much about trading but it feels like there is a certain amount of stability at the moment. And since I don't know much my assumption is that the holders are holding and the only reason there aren't buyers yet is that the infrastructure is being put into place to allow them to run.
What other position is there? ;)
I really hope not and your words have encouraged me at a time when I need it more than anyone may know.
80% of the creative writers seem to have left steemit with this downturn and if it weren't for sndbox my posts would be making sub $1.... After 14 months on this platform. But this is not what concerns me, and has been feeding my doubts, it is those creative writers who have disappeared who used to actually read + comment. I said to a close friend many years ago, before I really learned my craft, that if I could just write stories/poems that people enjoyed reading i'd feel my life's ambition had left a legacy... something tangible to show my existence when I'm gone.
I felt an immense satisfaction and thrill in my work on steemit from September through to December last year as the interaction and mutual appreciation between poetry + fiction writers helped fuel the drive to create. This has slowly dropped off throughout 2018 and It is very hard to keep up this level of creative drive when no one seems to be reading a 3000 word short story that took over 8 hours to write and edit.
I recently learned that a large proportion of steemit creative writers have up sticks and gone to medium and this is part of why I'm hell bent on exploring a community idea I had around an SMT called writcoin (I've even managed to secure the steemit account now). To try and keep (or entice back) the engagement and value for creative writing on steemit.
I'm keeping fingers crossed for a 'told you so' moment in the next 1-5 years also 😉 I'm afraid I may have to actually take some earnings out of steemit if we see a $100 steem. Debts paid and maybe to own my own little apartment, that's the ludicrous dream for which I strive in a financial sence.
Interesting post, as always taraz.
Don't worry too much about engagement and people leaving at the moment, be grateful for what we do get. A lot of the engagement prior was false due to the prices increasing and then December craziness. Those that are really still here plugging away are going to be here at those highs to come also. It is a little demotivating for a creator though.
Those that have picked up sticks for medium etc I wish them luck but I can't see most of them out-earning on average over time. It might be more suitable to them now for their purposes but if they are looking to live off of their creation, they need to build up a support network and Steem can do this plus help one become their own support. Takes time and a mass of energy though.
I appreciate what you're saying but my experience was that a lot of that engagement wasn't false.
I got a lot of truly inspiring and insightful literary comments about technique/style from some of the writers who have disappeared. The engagement wasn't false due to the fact that they have gone, just there motivation was mainly financial rather than community. Having said that, some of the people I'm thinking about were involved heavily in admin roles in creative writing communities at that time. I honestly think the issue is wider and revolves around the simple fact that people who put in massive amounts of time and talent, want to be paid reasonably for that time. This is why a huge amount of quality creative writers have left. The types of comments that I always had a stock (short) answer for during that (market boom) time were the sort that said 'nice article' about a poem and analysis or 'beautiful pictures friend' on a 1500 word short story with one pic from pixabay for illustration purposes. It is true there were a lot of one sentence generic comments that weren't spam dropping in that Oct-Dec period as well and, you're right, this was definitely the market boom effect. But there were also a lot of meaningful comments coming from people who were actually reading. It's this engagement I miss and also think that is needed for anyone to thrive and keep producing on steemit. This isn't just about me but many other people, and I know of at least 2 others in creative writing community who haven't left but get hardly any comment engagement on posts.
But there is still much to be positive about ;-) I know exactly where you're coming from with what you say above. Now is the time for writing and engaging, building strong bonds with everyone left as it says much for all us hanger-on-ers that we're still here producing.
It's hard to be grateful for the levels of engagement for creative writing on steemit at the moment, I'm simply disappointed is all. Again this is not just about engagement on my posts but what I see with other people who have been on here a long time (over a year) writing mainly in these subjects. I know that the only way to change this is to do something about it myself so that's what I'm gonna try and do with writcoin :-)
I completely agree btw's, and I know that a huge part of the lack of engagement on fiction/poetry is because more than half of the community has left, after all, why would people not interested in those subjects comment. Steemit has some of the best community mechanisms of any blogging platform. Also, I'm not sure why those who have disappeared don't post to both platforms anyway. It seems to me that they're missing a trick.
That is fair enough and it doesn't really what their motivation is if you took something out of it anyway.
This is not a place where people can get paid reasonably for their time yet consistently for most as it is not a large enough community, there is not enough support across niches and there is far too little active SP voting. Many people would be better off working a normal job and taking a little and buying themselves in but most people here will never buy in to it.
This is part of the ecosystem size and diversity too. People want reward but there aren't so many people who are interested in long articles let alone the stake behind to support them. This is still a place of crypto enthusiasts, not general public and that is where the stake is held. To fix this requires wide distribution and investment and although it can happen, it takes time.
How many creative writing enthusiasts would have invested 100k here at 7c steem so they can support creative writers in the future? It is the same issue with distribution but it can change with SMTs perhaps. They are 6 months away and then there is the development of the infrastructure for them.
This is a very immature platform in many ways and without wide distribution of active SP, what gets supported is relatively narrow. Those with SP that try are consistently called out for not doing enough or, why not my post etc. It can change but it is not going to be a place where creators can come in and be supported consistently until more are willing to buy in also. THere is a catch-22 problem with that.
I think you hit on it here in regards to issues I've raised in my comment. I kind of already knew this but I truly believe that steemit will never gain mass adoption if it remains crypto-centric. I honestly want to be part of the solution (with writcoin SMT) that brings in some investment from the publishing industry and ties up a portion of that value, for creative writers, through the SMT mechanism. We shall see how this plays out, but one of my main drives is toward the benefit of the community as a whole also. My reasoning is around the question of what a steemit that had gained mass adoption would want... and undoubtedly, a percentage of those new users would want to read stories and maybe even poems (although poetry is more niche).
Ha ha, but what is more niche than cryptocurrency lol, maybe not here on steemit but when/if those floods of people from soc media and other blogging platforms, self publishing sites (like medium/patreon) etc come a knocking, they want interesting content, not just a thousand and one articles about dapps, crypto and the internal workings of steemit.
It is at this point that if there aren't already dapps and strong communities set up in these varied subjects that the crypto-centric 'whales' aren't really interested in, these people will just drift away, along with the value they bring to all of our stake.
In answer to the question, very few I'm sure. Creative writers come in two or three camps lol. Broke as fck, reasonably wealthy with a few novels but working as a lecturer and J K Rowling/George R R Martin level ;-) To be honest though, a lot of whales are just people who mined the hell out of steem when it was worth cents and then traded well to increase their stake.
As I understand it, HF20 has kind of made it impossible to do anything on here without some type of stake so I can completely see a future steemit where new users need to either invest or loan SP from communities to actually be part of this platform. Imagine 1, 2, or 3 million people joining all having to invest a few hundred dollars into steem, or if they're writers loan writcoin SMT to produce and get paid, while paying it back incrementally ;-) I write this only partly in jest. But what I said above about a completely crypto-centric steemit harming chances of mass adoption impossible, well it's impossible to prove, but I'm 100% in my mind that it would be the case.
Oh my god, I'm sounding like a crypto hater.... honest I do love crypto ;-)
P.s. you make some really great points and I've enjoyed this back and forth..... but I gotta go write some poetry now
The future belongs to content creators. The infrastructure is being established now. THe trouble with Steem is that for some areas, we are too early, there is an alignment problem. THose who are here now need to be able to survive the building and hopefully, they will grow so that when built and they come, they can support others. It won't take much SP to support in the future.
HF20 is the gateway to completely free usage and a mass of consumers. It is the thing that will attract the investors across the diverse app space. again, those affected now are here early so have to find ways to stick it out or pick up sticks. In my head, we haven't even made it to the first tea break. ;)
That is all very encouraging and SMT's are very much something I want to learn more about but also just other peoples view points etc. I think I came to steemit with a very content focused attitude and it is why I have struggled with feelings of disappointment in my first year here. However, the last 4 months particularly I have started to gain a broader understanding, and in fact, I am thinking of keeping some of my creative writing back from steemit to try and get more published in journals etc. Not that I'll stop producing but move more toward to articles etc.
I'm starting to see that the future may be in many dapps with their own SMT's backed by a pool of steem as well and that the money will flow in via those new SMT coins allowing for smaller (genre specific) communities to arise, working off the steem blockchain but rewarding in a fairer manner based on the SMT & store of steem power. This is all just ideas and concepts in my head at the moment but this is why steemfest is gonna be so cool. Learning and, more importantly, developing new ways of looking at it all.
I agree that we're all still early adopters and this is very much beta. I'll stick it out for sure. I'm too stubborn to give up now. Also, a second cuppa tea sounds nice :-)
Oh, in a few weeks I will run through some ideas with you at SF that could help build a better understanding, or at least a more positive view of the current situations ;)
Sounds like an awesome plan dude. Cheers 🍺
Ethereum is worth about 21 billion bucks - in this bear market of all times! It's very easy to imagine the market cap of Steem going to $25B when the ball really starts rolling. I've been keeping a low profile at home because I have no interest listening to any FUD or "told you so's" after every dip. I get enough of that from mainstream media outlets. There's no fuckin' way I'm powering down and going back to Facebook now!
Ethereum, having crashed to a mere sixth of its ATH in January and the with ICO market in deep trouble is still worth over 20 billion dollars. Steem is one of the few chains with actual real world use. It's grossly undervalued and even a number of Steemians trashtalk it on a daily basis. Development is steaming ahead despite everything. For me, it's not difficult at all to imagine the price of STEEM going up 100-fold in the next few years.
My wife has no idea about what the markets are doing and she stopped asking when the answer is always "down" :D
People talk about Steem crashing further than that but I don't see it as an issue because, it was a pump. With the low market cap pumping exchange Steem upward is relatively easy considering that 70 percent of the supply is in SP or something. Comparing it to BTC or even Eth is not productive at this point until the Steem ecosystem itself is ready.
ETH is hardly in a shape to handle any real world use. It's been used mainly as a platform for mostly scammy ICOs. It has a long way ahead before it's transition into PoS is complete. It hasn't really even started, yet.
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The potential to change the lives of so many including oneself is truly a motivating factor. The great thing about it when you think about it is that this is not a zero sum game like other investing assets where you win while another loses. The fact we can all gain should be sufficient to work together to build a great ecosystem we can both enjoy and get benefits from. Many already do it with centralized network but get no rewards and also feel the pain of their privacy being breached. Let's Steem on for a better future for all!
It is funny that working together for a community that raises all is so difficult in a decentralized community however, if we can work it out eventually here it offers a lot of potential to other communities to come.
Dreams are as big as the desire to live. I started in steemit a short time ago, I have joined many communities in discord, where we encourage each other daily, however I have seen with concern that there are no longer as many people as before activated in the communities, however I am not far from my project here.
Recently, I was given a space in the discord, where we sing and move the energy in positive, that activity has helped us to stay active publishing, where we encourage others to share experiences, perhaps not a very big activity, but if it is constant and has made us dream, in being singers and owners of our own show, which allows us to fly and want to keep working in steemit.
What I mean is that we need to increase our spirits, and channel the good energy to keep us constant in this beautiful project of steemit and be able to dream maybe one day, to share with you and your beautiful family another glass of wine that I can give you.
Good vibe and blessings
The discord communities are often built of people looking to gain financially which means that in times of lower rewards, many become inactive as they don't get what they want out of it (normally votes). Community itself requires activity and input, not only extraction and those that can weather the storms and keep building processes now ill benefit when the weather is good.
The easiest thing is to retire without a fight, but for small users like me, it is important to read motivational comments to stay, and we must be clear on what we really believe depending on the platform of which we are part. The road to success always takes some effort, so nothing will be fast, everything will come in the long term so staying in time is important.
In the discord, you find people as you say, only pending of money, but also there are people who support you morally, and help you without compromises, at least that has been my experience. Thank you for your time, I value the answer.
Happy day and good energy. :)
Going to sleep now thinking of $100 Steem. Or maybe stay up a bit more and dream!?
I wonder if I start to hallucinate ;)
I hope for you it will work out the way you have in mind. But honestly speaking I have doubts about it do to you still remember what the cryptocurrency was worth one year ago?
Do you remember what it was worth 1.5 years ago? :D