Update: Can the Wisdom of the Crowd Predict the Price of Bitcoin at the End of June 2021?
A week ago I have published the first forecast .
The crowd to forecast the bitcoin price are the visitors of the freebitco.in website (the longest running and most reliable bitcoin faucet) can bet on the btc price for the end of each month. The BTC price betting always closes 7 days before the end of the month.
The majority predicted the correct bitcoin price range of 57 501-60 000 USD for the end of April 2021 while the price on the last day of the bet was at around 51 000 USD.
Now the results are in for the month of May. This time again the crowd made the correct price prediction. Most bet counts were on the price range of 35 001 – 40 000 USD. The price for bitcoin was around 38 000 USD on May 24th on the last day of the bet.
The June bets are currently open and the predictions are so far:
Price | Bets | Percentage
35001-40000 | 1600 | 18.13%
42501-45000 | 975 | 11.05%
30001-35000 | 918 | 10.40%
A week ago (05/26/2021) the top bets were:
Price | Bets |
42501-45000 | 364 | 14.07%
35001-40000 | 331 | 12.79%
47501-50000 | 225 | 8.70%
Now the crowd expects a lower bitcoin price range compared to a week ago. Overall, the sentiment has shifted. While last week 79.6% forecasted a price same or higher than today, now the confidence of the bettors dropped to 73.74 % .
Today bitcoin is trading in the price range between 35 500 – 37 500 USD.
The percentage of participants who predicted a price below 5 000 USD has increase from 1.35 % to 1.38 % and decreased from 1.28 % to 1.04% for a price above 1 Million USD for the end of June.
You can view the current price predictions here (Referral Link):
How to navigate to all the current BTC June Bets :
Main Menu select Betting
I will revisit the forecast next week and give an update again.