3 ways Penn State’s path looks like Clemson’s
3 ways Penn State’s path looks like Clemson’s
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Three ways James Franklin’s arc looks similar to that of Dabo Swinney.
In the Playoff era, college football’s big three have been Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State. Those three have won all four national titles since 2015 and have combined for nine Playoff berths.
With Alabama and Ohio State, the standards are unattainable for just about everyone else.
Both have coaches who long ago punched their Hall of Fame tickets, one of them tied with Bear Bryant for the most AP titles and the other with a ludicrous .851 winning percentage. Alabama has unparalleled fan and institutional support while being near recruiting hotbeds; Ohio State is similar and is the only major program in a talent-rich state.
Clemson, on the other hand, is a program for the people.
Though no slouch historically, it does not have Brahmin status Bama and Ohio State do, instead ranking No. 18 in all-time win percentage.
Rather than hiring a coach who had already won a national title, as both the Tide and Buckeyes were able to do, the Tigers promoted a position coach in 2008. Clemson sits in a state that is not on the level of Alabama or Ohio in terms of producing blue-chip talent, and it has to share at least some of that talent with its archrival in Columbia.
In short, Clemson is a more realistic model for other programs to emulate.
The program that is most closely following Clemson’s path is, as of the last few years, Penn State.
In the 14-year period starting with the new millennium and ending with Bill Bradley’s final year in State College, Penn State ranked 28th in winning percentage, behind South Carolina and Texas Tech.
But since hiring Franklin, Penn State has won the Big Ten and played in a pair of New Year’s Six bowls, one of which it won and the second of which it lost in dramatic fashion.
1. Huge advances in recruiting
Swinney’s chief credential in being hired by Clemson, first as interim head coach and then as the permanent replacement for Tommy Bowden, was that he is an outstanding recruiter with an ability to build connections.
Using Phil Steele’s recruiting composite, here are the ranks of the eight Clemson recruiting classes before Swinney became the head coach: 25, 29, 46, 53, 26, 13, 20, 15. After those three top-20 classes in the previous eight years, Swinney hauled in five in his first six.
Clemson continued to break through. The Tigers’ last four classes have all been in the top 10, a whole new level for the program. The apex was the 2018 class, which was No. 2 and headlined by four of the country’s nine highest-rated signees.
Franklin is cut from a similar cloth. Unlike Swinney, he had experience as an offensive coordinator, but the punch line is that his offenses were never that good. His value laid in his skill as a recruiter. He has emphasized it even more as a head coach.
Like Swinney, Franklin has kicked Penn State’s recruiting up a notch since joining. Going back to the Stack o’ Steeles, here are the rankings for the 14 pre-Franklin Penn State classes: 11, 12, 36, 10, 16, 6, 12, 19, 14, 4, 25, 33, 30, 24. Franklin’s first three classes were rated 16, 16, and 14, a significant improvement and impressive, in light of the after-effects of NCAA sanctions.
As Swinney broke through the ceiling in 2015, Franklin did the same in 2018 with the No. 7 class (Penn State’s third top-10 class in the century and first since 2010). Penn State’s 2019 class is also shaping up well, as the Lions currently have a class almost entirely composed of blue-chips.
Who knows if they'll actually do it, because so much of that depends on luck, but man, Penn State is recruiting well enough to win a national title right now.
— Matt Brown (@MattSBN) May 21, 2018
2. They’ve proved they can beat the best
To state the obvious, the best recruiter in the world will not succeed without being able to sell results. Like Clemson, Penn State got a break-through season that involved a win over Meyer. Clemson’s banner 2015 class was the first full class after the Tigers’ 2013 season, in which they finished No. 8 in the AP Poll after beating Ohio State in the Orange Bowl. Penn State’s recruiting leap in 2018 was the first full class after the 2016 season, in which the Nittany Lions beat Ohio State, won the Big Ten, and finished No. 7 in the AP Poll.
Swinney’s also beaten Saban, so there’s the next challenge for Franklin.
3. Hiring high-quality coordinators, particularly to modernize the offense
Swinney’s first two full seasons at Clemson were unremarkable. The Tigers went 9-5 and then 6-7, warming Dabo’s seat. Swinney decided to go in a different direction offensively, firing Billy Napier, hiring Chad Morris, and moving to a spread offense, utilizing tempo and the quarterback in the running game. Clemson has won double-digit games and finished in the top ten of the AP Poll in every season since. The change in scheme has been durable, as the Tigers survived eventual Arkansas head coach Morris’ departure and have continued to light up scoreboards.
Clemson also hired arguably the country’s best defensive coordinator, Brent Venables, once he’d parted with Oklahoma.
Franklin walked along a similar road. His first two offenses at Penn State in 2014 and 2015 were underwhelming. Franklin fired John Donovan, hired Joe Moorhead, and transitioned to a spread offense to take advantage of the skills of Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley.
The big question for Franklin moving forward is whether his attack will not skip a beat sans Moorhead, who’s now the head coach at Mississippi State.
One variable: the big, bad Big Ten East
The ACC Atlantic looked like it was about to rival the SEC West as the best division in college football. Florida State made the first two Playoffs, and Louisville was on the upswing with Bobby Petrino and Lamar Jackson. Now, Florida State is coming off of a 7-6 season, while Louisville’s defensive shortcomings have capped the Cardinals’ ascent. Clemson rose with genuine contenders in their division, but their path looks clear at the moment, so much so that the Tigers’ over/under for wins in 2018 is 11.
Penn State’s ascent to Clemson status will be harder. The Nittany Lions have to play Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State every season and also have Wisconsin over the horizon, sometimes in the regular season and other times in Indianapolis. (The Badgers were certainly a tougher test for the Big Ten East in 2017 than Clemson’s ACC Championship competition was, as evidenced by Wisconsin handling Miami in the Orange Bowl.)
Penn State’s over/under in 2018 is 9.5, in part because of losses from the 2017 team and in part because it plays four teams projected by S&P+ to finish in the top 12 nationally. Franklin has all the ingredients to continue on the Clemson flight path, but he will likely face more turbulence along the way.
Three ways James Franklin’s arc looks similar to that of Dabo Swinney.
In the Playoff era, college football’s big three have been Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State. Those three have won all four national titles since 2015 and have combined for nine Playoff berths.
With Alabama and Ohio State, the standards are unattainable for just about everyone else.
Both have coaches who long ago punched their Hall of Fame tickets, one of them tied with Bear Bryant for the most AP titles and the other with a ludicrous .851 winning percentage. Alabama has unparalleled fan and institutional support while being near recruiting hotbeds; Ohio State is similar and is the only major program in a talent-rich state.
Clemson, on the other hand, is a program for the people.
Though no slouch historically, it does not have Brahmin status Bama and Ohio State do, instead ranking No. 18 in all-time win percentage.
Rather than hiring a coach who had already won a national title, as both the Tide and Buckeyes were able to do, the Tigers promoted a position coach in 2008. Clemson sits in a state that is not on the level of Alabama or Ohio in terms of producing blue-chip talent, and it has to share at least some of that talent with its archrival in Columbia.
In short, Clemson is a more realistic model for other programs to emulate.
The program that is most closely following Clemson’s path is, as of the last few years, Penn State.
In the 14-year period starting with the new millennium and ending with Bill Bradley’s final year in State College, Penn State ranked 28th in winning percentage, behind South Carolina and Texas Tech.
But since hiring Franklin, Penn State has won the Big Ten and played in a pair of New Year’s Six bowls, one of which it won and the second of which it lost in dramatic fashion.
1. Huge advances in recruiting
Swinney’s chief credential in being hired by Clemson, first as interim head coach and then as the permanent replacement for Tommy Bowden, was that he is an outstanding recruiter with an ability to build connections.
Using Phil Steele’s recruiting composite, here are the ranks of the eight Clemson recruiting classes before Swinney became the head coach: 25, 29, 46, 53, 26, 13, 20, 15. After those three top-20 classes in the previous eight years, Swinney hauled in five in his first six.
Clemson continued to break through. The Tigers’ last four classes have all been in the top 10, a whole new level for the program. The apex was the 2018 class, which was No. 2 and headlined by four of the country’s nine highest-rated signees.
Franklin is cut from a similar cloth. Unlike Swinney, he had experience as an offensive coordinator, but the punch line is that his offenses were never that good. His value laid in his skill as a recruiter. He has emphasized it even more as a head coach.
Like Swinney, Franklin has kicked Penn State’s recruiting up a notch since joining. Going back to the Stack o’ Steeles, here are the rankings for the 14 pre-Franklin Penn State classes: 11, 12, 36, 10, 16, 6, 12, 19, 14, 4, 25, 33, 30, 24. Franklin’s first three classes were rated 16, 16, and 14, a significant improvement and impressive, in light of the after-effects of NCAA sanctions.
As Swinney broke through the ceiling in 2015, Franklin did the same in 2018 with the No. 7 class (Penn State’s third top-10 class in the century and first since 2010). Penn State’s 2019 class is also shaping up well, as the Lions currently have a class almost entirely composed of blue-chips.
Who knows if they'll actually do it, because so much of that depends on luck, but man, Penn State is recruiting well enough to win a national title right now.
— Matt Brown (@MattSBN) May 21, 2018
2. They’ve proved they can beat the best
To state the obvious, the best recruiter in the world will not succeed without being able to sell results. Like Clemson, Penn State got a break-through season that involved a win over Meyer. Clemson’s banner 2015 class was the first full class after the Tigers’ 2013 season, in which they finished No. 8 in the AP Poll after beating Ohio State in the Orange Bowl. Penn State’s recruiting leap in 2018 was the first full class after the 2016 season, in which the Nittany Lions beat Ohio State, won the Big Ten, and finished No. 7 in the AP Poll.
Swinney’s also beaten Saban, so there’s the next challenge for Franklin.
3. Hiring high-quality coordinators, particularly to modernize the offense
Swinney’s first two full seasons at Clemson were unremarkable. The Tigers went 9-5 and then 6-7, warming Dabo’s seat. Swinney decided to go in a different direction offensively, firing Billy Napier, hiring Chad Morris, and moving to a spread offense, utilizing tempo and the quarterback in the running game. Clemson has won double-digit games and finished in the top ten of the AP Poll in every season since. The change in scheme has been durable, as the Tigers survived eventual Arkansas head coach Morris’ departure and have continued to light up scoreboards.
Clemson also hired arguably the country’s best defensive coordinator, Brent Venables, once he’d parted with Oklahoma.
Franklin walked along a similar road. His first two offenses at Penn State in 2014 and 2015 were underwhelming. Franklin fired John Donovan, hired Joe Moorhead, and transitioned to a spread offense to take advantage of the skills of Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley.
The big question for Franklin moving forward is whether his attack will not skip a beat sans Moorhead, who’s now the head coach at Mississippi State.
One variable: the big, bad Big Ten East
The ACC Atlantic looked like it was about to rival the SEC West as the best division in college football. Florida State made the first two Playoffs, and Louisville was on the upswing with Bobby Petrino and Lamar Jackson. Now, Florida State is coming off of a 7-6 season, while Louisville’s defensive shortcomings have capped the Cardinals’ ascent. Clemson rose with genuine contenders in their division, but their path looks clear at the moment, so much so that the Tigers’ over/under for wins in 2018 is 11.
Penn State’s ascent to Clemson status will be harder. The Nittany Lions have to play Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State every season and also have Wisconsin over the horizon, sometimes in the regular season and other times in Indianapolis. (The Badgers were certainly a tougher test for the Big Ten East in 2017 than Clemson’s ACC Championship competition was, as evidenced by Wisconsin handling Miami in the Orange Bowl.)
Penn State’s over/under in 2018 is 9.5, in part because of losses from the 2017 team and in part because it plays four teams projected by S&P+ to finish in the top 12 nationally. Franklin has all the ingredients to continue on the Clemson flight path, but he will likely face more turbulence along the way.
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