The Current Bitcoin Market and a Strategy
While I believe that BTC is in a continuation of the Bull Market and new all time highs are in the not too distant future, the current situation is less clear. Looking at the first chart you will see an overall plot of BTC prices since the last all time high through the correction which reached a low of 68% from the high on Feb 6th you will see one failed attempt at a rally prior to the current one.
An important indicator here is the yellow dotted trend line I've drawn showing the angle and 4 connecting points along that angle of the decline. You can see that as of yesterday we are now for the first time since the ATH (all time high) closing candles above the trend line. I view this as a very positive indicator. However we are also rapidly approaching a point of resistance at $11,297.00 and the 0.382 Fibonacci line. To declare that we are in at least a short term recovery we must close a daily candle above the 0.382 resistance line. From there it's pretty clear sailing to the 0.50 Fibonacci line at $12,929.00 which is the next test for any advance we can expect or hope for. Should we close above the 0.50 line we are then confirming a new bull run for BTC which will lift all the ALT coins which are healthy otherwise. Always keep in mind that the ALT coins I have recommended will out perform and some will outperform BTC.
One example at the moment that is out performing from my recommended ALT coin list is ADA (Cardano) This coin is still a great buy for a long term (months) hold.
On the caution side, if we fail to hold at either of the lines I've already described, we will likely decline to retest the resistance levels we have already seen. Some of those would be the FIB line at 0.236 or $9277.00 then the $8,000.00 area and even $6066.00 which was the low point in the current correction. I must point out that even if this occurs, these MUST be viewed as new opportunities to add to your portfolio at a discount. A good trader should always be sitting a bit of cash from his previous profits to invest in these pullbacks and or be adding new money.
My personal strategy in the last couple of weeks has been to keep a spread of buys and sells at about 1.3% steps around the current BTC price. For example 5 buys and 5 sells placed 1.3% apart (around $130.00 spread) each. In this trade I've used the value of one BTC divided to 0.1 for each buy sell position. This strategy has netted about at 16% ROI over the last couple of weeks just on the cyclic moves of BTC in it's current trading range. As of this writing this is still a sound strategy in my opinion and I'm actively trading on it. This is actually one of the safest trading strategies you can use but it requires a lot of attention and or the use of a bot. Again, as I always say most of you should not be trying to trade short term. Some will rather buy and sell on long term swings over months. The rest (majority) of you can actually beat 90% of traders by just adding to your positions of recommended coins on dips and holding (HODL). See the graphic of the spread strategy I'm using.
Chart 1
The second price chart I'm posting here is merely a zoom in version to show you the signals I'm currently looking at. In addition to the yellow dotted trend line discussed is a blue dotted line which I've drawn showing the angle of the previous recovery attempt by BTC which broke when it closed candles below the trend line. We are currently below that line and attempting to challenge it again. As I mentioned already, we have successfully broken the yellow dotted trend line. Other indicators are the thin white line which is a 15 period moving average and the solid yellow which is a 50 period moving average. These two indicators confirm we are again in a positive mode for at least the short term. Trading volume is also indicating steady interest.
Second Chart
So in summary I think we are in short term positive mode, with caution provided we close above the point I've outlined. We have the potential to retest some lower price levels and that must be part of your calculus. At this point cautious adding to your positions is worth considering.
Lastly, I'm including a chart showing the previous BTC runs and corrections for your comparison. This helps with a perspective for those who have not been in the markets for long and demonstrates that both the recent ATH price move as well as the current correction are well within historical moves and not abnormal for BTC.
Previous BTC Runs and Corrections
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