Statistical Analysis Thursday January 18th

SOUTHWELL 12.20

7/2 St Patrick's Day, 4/1 Bib And Tucker,
5/1 Sooqaan, 6/1 John Caesar, Tilly Devine,
10/1 Outlaw Torn, Rolling Dice, 14/1 Dusty Bin,
16/1 General Tufto, 25/1 Quick Monet,
50/1 Zarkavon.

Low grade 8f handicap

BIB AND TUCKER is a 3 year old
Taking on older horses
With an absence of 182 days
Whilst few try at this time of year
None have won anything like her

January and February
Since 2004
All weather Handicaps
Any distance
Any class
Horses aged 3
Absent more than 31 days
Have an overall 0-32 record
That tells me to avoid him
BIB AND TUCKER is opposed

ZARKAVON is outclassed
QUICK MONET is outclassed
GENERAL TUFTO is 13 years old
Hammered 13 days ago he is unnaceptable
DUSTY BIN should not be fit enough
He has raced just once since last June
OUTLAD TORN doesn't offer enough
He is a 9yo absent over a month
His best numvers also come at Wolves

TILLY DEVINE is a 4yo filly
Going up in distance worries me
I can't make her a negtaive statistically
But don't feel drawn to her chance

JOHN CAESAR is 7 absent 87 days
ROLLING DICE is 7 absent 91 days

ROLLING DICE has a poor strike rate
He is drawn on the wide outside
Ridden by a 7lbs claimer with no wins

JOHN CAESAR offers a bit more
Whilst he has to drop from 1m 3f
And he has no Southwell form at all
If he were to handle the surface
His numbers are quite significant
If you assume that he does not stay 10f +
10 of his best Racing Post Ratings
Come over 1m or shorter
Then his numbers at around a mile
Are far better than many of these
So I am drawn towards his chance
Even with no track form or recent run

SOOQAAN is hard to read or commit too
Not won since 2004 and has patchy form
But is capable off his current rating
Didn't quite see enough to commit to

ST PATRICKS DAY is effective here
His best 2 career Racing Post Ratings
And 3 of his best 4 career ratings as well
Came over this course and distance
This is also his best time of year
He did not run January 2017 - Sept 2017
He has been running himself fit
He has raced 6 times since September
Needed the first few of those races
2 runs ago he badly missed the break
Did extremely well to finish in 3rd place
He ran through non stayers to be fair
But signs he was getting fit enough
Ran better than it looked at Kempton
Given he found himself racing wide

Selection

£4.50 Each Way ST PATRICKS DAY 7/2

£1.00 Saver Bet JOHN CAESAR 8/1

LUDLOW 1.00

15/8 Melangerie, 2/1 Passing Call,
9/2 Secret Escape, 6/1 Rouergate,
16/1 Quine Des Champs, 20/1 The Mistress,
25/1 Shufoog, Sin Sin, 33/1 May Mist,
50/1 Fleur Du Pommier, Hijran,
66/1 Definite Winner, Lady Vitesse,
100/1 Trojan Lass, 100/1 Celer Et Audax
100/1 Gloi.

Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m

This looks a 3 horse race
That I would narrow down to 2
ROUERGATE can't be ruled out
But she looks held by Passing Call
And has work to do on the numbers

MELANGERIE has every chance
PASSING CALL has every chance

There is a case for PASSING CALL
She is the better priced of the pair
She has a 5lbs edge on the numbers

MELANGERIE though is a year older
And when I look at similar races
Horses aged 6 with absences
Outperform horses aged 5

January
Mares Novice Hurdles
2m 4f or shorter
Horses coming from hurdles
Absent more than 4 weeks
Have an overall 18-141 record

Those aged 5 with this profile 0-29
Those aged 6 with this profile 14-73
MELANGERIE as a 6yo looks safer

Selection

Ludlow 1.00 - MELANGERIE 11/8

Chelmsford 5.55 - SPARE PARTS 6/4

Each Way Double

LUDLOW 3.45

7/2 Gamain, 4/1 Pennywell, 9/2 The Sweeney,
6/1 Crucial Role, 8/1 Vinegar Hill, 11/1 Allbarnone,
12/1 Capote, Deauville Crystal, Three Star General,
22/1 Jennys Day, 50/1 Boxer Beat.

3m Handicap Hurdle

Small Stakes for this one

52 similar races

THE SWEENEY looks a bit unsafe
Horses with under 7 career starts
Running within the last 3 weeks
Have a 0-10 record in similar races

Horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter
Having under 7 hurdle runs are 0-11
THE SWEENEY fails both these angles
Not the most persuasive of statistics
But I can see some logic behind them
CRUCIAL ROLE also fails one of them
DEAUVILLE CRYSTAL pulled up last time
So too did VINEGAR HILL over fences
I would play it this one or two ways

Option 1

£5 Win Bet PENNYWELL 6/1
£5 Place Bet GAMAIN 4/5

Option 2

£3.50 Each Way PENNYWELL 6/1

£3.00 Win Bet GAMAIN 3/1

I prefer Option 1

MINIMUM stakes though

CHELMSFORD 5.55

2/1 Spare Parts, 13/2 Billyoakes, 7/1 Desert Fox,
10/1 Hisar, 10/1 Lanjano, Run With Pride, 14/1 El Torito,
14/1 Haraz, Spin Top, 16/1 Out Of The Ashes,
20/1 Vroom, 25/1 Alfonso Manana, De Little Engine,
33/1 Malaysian Boleh.

6f Handicap

SPARE PARTS is the class horse
He is topweight
He has won his last 4 races
Including one yesterday at Lingfield
He is in the best form
He is easily the fittest horse
He has by far the best numbers

Against him in the Draw in stall 13
Few win drawn that high but few try
You can argue coming down a furlong
Could raise an extra doubt as well
These factors make sure is is 6/4
Rather than the price he ought to be
Strong positives v minor negatives
The solution is the each way double
Difficult to see 3 that will beat him
I think the best option to put him with
Is the opening race at Ludlow

Selection

Hopefully this bet will still be running

Ludlow 1.00 - MELANGERIE 6/4
Chelmsford 5.55 - SPARE PARTS 6/4
Each Way Double

If not then I'd suggest a small win bet

CHELMSFORD 8.30

13/8 Pulsating, 9/4 Cool Breeze,
5/1 Lady Cristal, 6/1 Pretty Bubbles,
10/1 Reedanjas, 16/1 Natalie Express.

6f Fillies Handicap
Not many can win this race

NATALIE EXPRESS has 1 run in 116 days
REEDANJAS looks held on her last run

COOL BREEZE is a big runner
Last time out she won at Kempton
PRETTY BUBBLES was 2nd in that race
LADY CRISTAL was 4th in that race
So we have the 1st 2nd and 4th
All running in the same race last time
If we can get a better horse
Then we should be able to beat all three

PULSATING is on a roll
She could be that horse
Started January with 2 very easy wins
Failed in her hat trick bid last time
She had excuses that day
Was never in a goood enough position
She stayed on very well at the end

PULSATING is prefered to Cool Breeze
Despite being far more exposed

That is for these reasons
In the last 54 days
COOL BREEZE has raced just once
PULSATING has 6 runs in that time
That could give her an advantage
Her best 2 career Racing Post Ratings
Came in her last 2 runs as well
Last time was a big field against males
Now she is back in small field
And back amongst her own sex

Selection

PULSATING 11/8

Win Bet

Now 10/11 after a non runner