Statistical Analysis Sunday 8th April

CARLISLE 3.25

13/8 Cornerstone Lad, 2/1 Mcgowan's Pass,
9/1 Kelpies Myth, 10/1 L'Inganno Felice,
20/1 Sea Of Mystery, 33/1 It's Buster,
100/1 Magic Of Milan, 100/1 Midnight Kate,
100/1 Rob Royal, 150/1 Ella's Dene.

Novice Hurdle over 2m 1f

The advertised favourite does not run

CORNERSTONE LAD is now favourite
He is a 4 year old
On softer ground that worries me

MCGOWANS PASS is a 7yo
That may be an advantage on bad ground

April
Novice Hurdles
Every Distance
Since 2009
Run on Soft of Heavy

Horses aged 4
Who do not come from Grade 1 races
Have a 0-32 record in all of these races
They have won plenty on faster ground
None though on soft or heavy ground
CORNERSTONE LAD has this to overcome

L'INGANNO FELICE does not appeal
31 Career starts on the flat
No national hunt form at all
I don't think he will stay in bad ground
If you look at his sire's record
His National hunt runners
On Good or soft or worse is 1-58
On soft or heavy ground it is 0-34

KELPIES MYTH may be competitive
A few things leave me a bit cold
Not least the sire and trainer

MCGOWANS PASS looks the bet
I'd rather have a 7yo on this ground
I'd also rather have a professional jockey
Despite that he is still my selection

Selection

MCGOWANS PASS 15/8-2/1

Win Bet

CARLISLE 4.30

7/2 My Old Gold, 4/1 Apollo Creed,
5/1 Too Many Chiefs, 5/1 Knock House,
7/1 Carlton Ryan, 14/1 Aengus, 20/1 Catchamat,
20/1 Top Billing, 25/1 Wyfield Rose.

Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1f
33 similar races at this time of year

KNOCK HOUSE is Topweight
Dislike the combination he offers
Of topweight and 1 run this season
He concedes not only weight to everything
But all his rivals have more recent runs too
KNOCK HOUSE is not the biggest of horses
I would rather choose something else

CATCHAMAT is a mare
Has not shown enough so far this season
If you look at her sire Overbury
The sires hurdlers over 3m 1f +
On ground softer than good are 0-36
WYEFIELD ROSE is also a mare
She has raced just once in 276 days
Hammered in that race she is rejected
TOP BILLING has raced twice this year
Defeats of 59 and 44 lengths in those runs
Hard to like him when so exposed as he is
AENGUS is an experienced 8yo
Comes here with 2 heavy defeats in a row
With limited scope for improvement
He does not look a safe enough choice

TOO MANY CHIEFS is a 7yo
He has joint topweight
Win 3 hurdle races earlier in the year
Between November and January
Had a break and now turns up 83 days later
He may have lost all his momentum now
If I look at horses like him
Under 9 years old with over 13 hurdle runs
None won with an absence as long as him
And if you look at his sire Indian River
The sires hurdlers over 3m 1f +
On ground softer than good are 0-6

APOLLO CREED is a 6yo
There were some similar 6yo winners
Who were like him quite lightly raced
But he doesn't offer as much as those
He was beaten 45 lengths last time
Much further than any of the similar winners
He has also raced just once in 135 days as well
And if you look at his sire Vinnie Roe
The sires hurdlers over 3m 1f +
On ground softer than good are 0-16

MY OLD GOLD is a mare
Only has 3 lifetime starts
To my surprise there were a couple of mares
That won similar races with under 4 runs
But none did it with a recent run
None did it on softer ground either
She was second last time in a handicap
Only 4 rivals though and a weaker race
Not a negative but not my first choice

CARLTON RYAN is a 10yo
But not overraced under rules
He is better known as a chaser
He has won 3 Hunter Chases
He has won 6 Point to Points

Last time out he went hurdling
Ran an encouraging 4th at Bangor
Only beaten 12 lengths was creditable
Especially as it was his first hurdle run
And you consider the strength of opposition
His rivals last time had these hurdle ratings
122 133 129 121 127 135 129 129 127
The average of their official ratings is 128.00
Today's race is only in 0-127 class
The average of today's official ratings is 115.75
Far less strength in depth in this handicap
And improvement is more than possible
Given that was his first ever hurdles run
No reason why he can't do well over hurdles
His last run is just about good enough to win
He passes my breeding stats as well
So a sporting each way bet at fair odds

Selection

CARLTON RYAN 6/1

Each Way