Statistical Analysis Saturday January 20th
NAVAN 12.25
9/4 Spades Are Trumps, 9/2 Veneer Of Charm,
11/2 Gran Geste, 6/1 Stooshie, 10/1 Game Of War,
10/11 Great Trango, 12/1 Chatham Street Lad,
12/1 Riders Onthe Storm, 16/1 Pronounced.
2m Novice Hurdle
I have a good statistic here
But it probably isn't enough
There are no rank outsiders here
It is too competetive to be confident
VENEER OF CHARM is opposed
Never comfortable about his profile
Not beaten 8 lengths only 6 days ago
January to April
Novice Hurdles
Horses aged 4
Beaten last time
Running within 11 days
Have a 0-116 record
VENEER OF CHARM fails this 0-116 record
PRONOUNCED fails this as well
That doesn't help much
Don't want certain sires in these conditions
GREAT TRANGO is out from one of those
CHATAM STREET LAD has one as well
GAME OF WAR doesn't look safe enough
Not well beaten over 2m 4f last time
In a race with so many last time winners
SPADES ARE TRUMPS is favourite
I ran his profile in similar races
I found winners with shorter absences
SPADES ARE TRUMPS has 52 days off
When you think about him
He has the joint least experience
Yet he also has the longest absence
On a stiff track on heavy ground
Should we be trusting that combination
GRAN GESTE is in a similar position
Joint least experienced horse
Second longest absence
Most weight as well
You could argue the same for him
If you look at hurdle runs
GRAN GESTE only has 1 hurdle run
His 8 opponents have these hurdle runs
5 2 4 4 2 3 3 2
GRAN GESTE is the least experienced
This leaves 2 horses
STOOSHIE 5/1
RIDERS ON THE STORN 10/1
Selection
Small Stakes
£4.50 Each Way STOOSHIE 5/1
£1.00 Win Bet RIDERS ON THE STORN 10/1
ASCOT 12.40
11/10 Nayati, 2/1 Oistrakh Le Noir,
4/1 Et Moi Alors, 14/1 Special Relation,
33/1 Harmonise, Leoro.
3yo Juvenile hurdle
8 past renewals of this race
ET MOI ALORS is unraced
He is apparantly highly regarded
OISTRAKH LE NOIR may be too
Not a shock if either horse wins
But statistically I am locked in
NAYATI 10/11 has to be the bet
Look at past renewals
Male horses that won last time
Between Christmas and New Year
Returned a 6-10 record
The last 6 winners of this race
All won just after Christmass
NAYATI may extend that record
Selection
NAYATI 4/5
Win Bet
NAVAN 1.00
9/4 Roundstone, 4/1 Antey, 9/2 Mortal,
8/1 Catwalk King, 10/1 Not Many Left,
12/1 Massey's Wood, Play With The Wind,
16/1 Cuneo, 20/1 Monstrosity, On The Mend,
20/1 Saffron And Grey, 25/1 Western Command,
50/1 Murgan, 66/1 Famous Day, Fr Gilligansvoyge,
100/1 Never Can Tell, Smooth Spoon.
Maiden Hurdle over 2m 4f
Huge field
Jam packed on different types
Unraced horses
Willie Mullins has 1
Joseph O'Brien runs 3
Gordon Elliot runs 3
Despite all those complications
It may not be that complicated
I'd oppose unraced horses
Go back 6 years
Since 2012
January to May
Maiden Hurdles
Run over 2m 2f or more
With over 16 runners
Unraced horses in these races
Have a desperate 0-221 record
Admittedly not many were fancied
But none have won since Oscargo 2011
ROUNDSTONE is unraced
May have a top class trainer
But on heavy ground he is out
Unraced 5 year olds easy to discount
PLAY WITH THE WIND has this problem
SAFFRON AND GREY has this problem
CUNEO with 1 career start is rejected
NOT MANY LEFT ran well on debut
Was only a 33/1 chance though
Racing Post Hurdle Ratings
128 Mortal
128 Mortal
123 Massey's Wood
121 Massey's Wood
118 Not Many Left
116 Catwalk King
115 Antey
ANTEY is very sexy
Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci
Ran a nice debut race 25 days ago
He has been VERY heavily backed
I have to prefer MORTAL here
MORTAL has 3 runs over hurdles
That is 2 more than ANTEY
He has better numbers as well
And doesn't have to step up in trip
Will ANTEY stay this far ?
He is sired by Lord of England
This sires runners over 2m 2f +
Have a 0-19 record so far
I just prefer MORTAL
His 2 biggest dangers
Include an unraced horse
And an inexperienced type
Not guaranteed to stay
MORTAL has the best numbers
The most hurdling experience too
And given those arguments
I am tempted by him
In a split stake bet with the steamer
Selection
£6 Win Bet MORTAL 7/2
£4 Win Bet ANTEY 5/4
LINGFIELD 1.25
3/1 Rock Icon, 9/2 Broughtons Story,
5/1 Attain, 5/1 Betsalottie, 6/1 Estibdaad,
12/1 Venetian Proposal, 14/1 Bloodsweatandtears,
14/1 Monday Club, Unsuspected Girl,
33/1 Sharp Operator, 50/1 Tilsworth Lukey.
10f handicap
114 similar races in January
This is quite complicated
SHARP OPERATOR comes from a 6f race
TILSWORTH LUKEY from a 7f race
Quite happy to oppose those horses
One interesting side issue here
BETSALOTTIE was our bet last Saturday
He won very easily in a weaker race
He is not easy to judge here
This will take a lot more winning
But he does have some momentum
One think he has in his favour
BETSALOTTIE has ran twice in 2018
No other horses have done that
He could be the fittest horse here
Lets take it back to December 1st
Which is 51 days ago
Number of runs since December 1st
4 Betsalottie
3 Attain
2 Broughtons Story 2 Rock Icon
2 Estibdaad 2 Bloodsweatandtears
2 Venetian Proposal 1 Monday Club
0 Unsuspected Girl
Don't think we are doing much wrong
Buy staying with the two horses
Who have the most recent runs
Selection
£4 Each Way BETSALOTTIE 9/2
£2 Win Bet ATTAIN 4/1
LINGFIELD 2.00
3/1 Karam Albaari, Relevant, 9/2 Zephyros,
6/1 Pivotal Flame, 13/2 Epicurious, 8/1 Ginger Lady,
16/1 Embankment, 25/1 Beast, 33/1 Fairy Mist,
33/1 Royal Rettie.
10f Handicap for 0-62 rated horses
114 similar races in January
Division 2 of the previous race
Horses from 7f score very poorly
FAIRY MIST has this problem
ROYAL RETTIE has it as well
Both look very opposable
EMBANKMENT is a 9 year old
Only 1 run since July is not enough
BEAST has the same problem
He is just too short of recent runs
EPICURIOUS last ran 253 days go
Horses absent over 5 months are 2-65
Those with under 10 runs were 0-25
Those doing it since 2011 were 0-41
EPICURIOUS fails both these angles
If you look at horses with under 9 runs
Those absent over 68 days were 0-41
I feel this makes him an unlikely winner
GINGER LADY is inexperienced
Couldn't have her from that stable
ZEPHYROS is a 7 year old
He ran 3 weeks ago
That was his first run in a while
ZEPHYROS has raced once in 136 days
Throw in topweight as well
It is not easy to be drawn to his profile
Shortlist
PIVOTAL FLAME is a 5yo mare
Dual Purpose horse whose been hurdling
Ran back on the flat last time with credit
She ran well last time out
If anything she was unlucky
KARAM ALBAARI won 7 days ago
Statistically her problem is a 10yo
Last time winners aged 8 + are 0-11
If I look at horses aged 9 or more
Those running in the previous 13 days
Have a 0-38 record in similar races
So there are statistical concerns
But only 4 of the 0-38 losers won last time
They finished 2nd 3rd 5th and 12th
Logical to shortlist him fit and in form
And he was impressive last time out
And won with plenty in hand as well
RELEVANT is a 4yo filly
Nothing wrong with her profile
With good recent runs she is ok
I could have staked any of these 3
Could have staked all 3
Staggered the staking £3 £2 £5
But something had to give
And I am playing it this way
Selection
£6.50 Win Bet RELEVANT 4/1
£3.50 Saver KARAM ALBAARI 2/1
ASCOT 2.25
7/2 Jenkins, 11/2 Crossed My Mind,
6/1 Oxwich Bay, 6/1 Le Breuil, 10/1 Air Horse One,
10/1 Night Of Sin, 12/1 Burbank, 14/1 Thorpe,
14/1 Jabulani, 16/1 Vivas, 16/1 Caid Du Lin,
20/1 Man Of Plenty, 25/1 Whatmore,
33/1 Monty's Award
Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f
Graded race with 8 past renewals
This is going to require a guess
JENKINS won well 7 days ago
A few things spring to mind here
Does this race come too soon ?
We have no idea whether it does
Nicky Henderson is no mug
He may not want JENKINS to win
If the target is the Betfair Hurdle
Which is run 3 weeks today
Then it is in is interests to lose
If JENKINS wins this race today
He has less chance in the Betfair Hurdle
It will mean he has too high a weight
It makes sense not to win
He could be given a quiet race
And he has the perfect excuse
Saying this race came too soon
This is all based on assumption
But my best guess here
JENKINS will finish 3rd 4th 5th
Not given a hard race
Just not getting enough good luck
Besides that in 8 past renewals
All 8 winners came from Class 2 or higher
JENKINS does not do that
No past winners of this race
Came from Class 3 or lower
Or came from non graded Novice Hurdles
OXWICH BAY has that problem today
NIGHT OF SIN and BURBANK do as well
MAN OF PLENTY looks too old
Recent winners had these hurdle runs
8 7 6 16 12 32 20 17 9
They all had at least 6 hurdle runs
JABULANI only has 4 hurdle runs
LE BREUIL only has 5 hurdle runs
OXWICH BAY has the same problem
Forced to guess and it will be a guess
CROSSED MY MIND looks as safe as any
Selection
Minimum Stakes
CROSSED MY MIND 5/1
Each Way
LINGFIELD 3.10
Evs Gakku, 7/2 American Gigolo,
11/2 Fearsome, 14/1 Barrsbrook,
14/1 Haafapiece, 25/1 Give Him Time,
25/1 Reedway, 33/1 Kerre.
12f Maiden
Difficult race to try and nail down
I think it has to be GAKKU here
He has a Racing Post Rating of 93
If he repeats that he wins easily
But the Racing Post are correct
He could be flattered by that rating
I watched his last run at Southwell
Didn't blow me away to be honest
I wanted to find an excuses for the run
Neither a high draw in stall 11 of 11
Or her going off too fast didn't wash
What may have been a reason last time
That she didn't stay 12f at Southwell
She looked the winner round the bend
I think it's plausable she did not stay
She has a far better chance here
And whilst she may be flattered
She did an 87 rating on her debut
Further proof she has an engine
AMERICAN GIGOLO is a 6yo
No Flat form just National Hunt form
Statistically he is an unproven neutral
If every horse runs to their best
He has no chance of giving Gakku 8lbs
That is a bit idealistic though
FEARSOME is a threat numerically
But he has just downgraded stables
And with 94 days off after a downgrade
I don't really not want to risk him
I'd rather stay with the 4yo filly
With the best numbers by a long way
Now the track is more suitable for her
Selection
GAKKU 11/10 +
Win Bet
HAYDOCK 3.15
5/1 Rock The Kasbah, 11/2 Tintern Theatre,
7/1 Hainan, 8/1 Captain Redbeard, Walk In The Mill,
8/1 Yala Enki, 9/1 Forest des Aigles, 12/1 Knockanrawley,
12/1 The Dutchman, 14/1 Carole's Destrier,
16/1 Highland Lodge, 20/1 Fine Rightly
25/1 Ptit Zig.
Peter Marsh Chase
3m 1f Handicap Chase
The last winner aged 7
Was back in 1996
All 19 that tried since failed
That is the weakest age group
HAINAN is a 7yo
TINTERN THEATRE is a 7yo
FOREST DES AIGLES is a 7yo
Past winners had the following chase starts
10 21 8 3 12 26 14 10 31 3 10 8 13 22 15 14 28
We had 2 winners with 3 Chase runs
But 15 of the last 17 winners
Had at least 8 or more Chase runs
TINTERN THEATRE only has 5 Chase runs
He failed to complete in two of those
THE DUTCHMAN only has 6 Chase runs
HAINAN has 7 Chase starts
We know 15 of the last 17 winners had more
If we look at runs this season
No winner had just 1 run that season
They had 2 4 2 3 3 4 3 4 5 3 2 2 2 runs
ROCK THE KASBAH has 1 run this year
He also has the longest absence as well
Past winners had the following absences
56 35 36 35 26 28 22 21 16 27 14 28 23 42
The longest absent winner was 56 days
ROCK THE KASBAH has 98 days off
He has more weight than any 8yo winner
CAROLE'S DESTRIER has 1 run this season
Lot to ask with a big weight as well
HIGHLAND LODGE has 1 run this season
We know all recent winners had more
He is a 12 year old and looks underraced
Looks like this is a prep run for Aintree
FINE RIGHTLY looks out of his depth
PTIT ZIG flopped last time out
Had an excuse as the race came too soon
The Handicapper has dropped him 3lbs
He does have a tough weight with 11st 10lbs
I think that may be too much for him
Only 1 winner since 1998 had 11st 6lbs +
If you look at his form over 3 miles
He has never won and his numbers drop
CAPTAIN REDBEARD won last time
Career best performance so respected
But he did have a very hard race
I think they went off too fast that day
There were few safe profiles in that race
I can't help but feel he was flattered
YALA ENKI is an 8yo
Has some good numbers over 3m
Conditions will suit and should be fit
What worries me most is his age/weight
Horses aged 8 with 10st 9lbs or more
Have won just the 2002 renewal
In an overall 1-22 record
Do we want an 8yo conceeding weight
To older horses in a race like this
KNOCKANRAWLEY is a 10yo
Fully effective over these conditions
Nothing wrong with his profile
We had a 10yo lighweight win in 2016
He is more of a plodder than some
His trainer says he is badly handicapped
That is nonesense. He isn't.
WALK IN THE MILL has 18 Chase starts
He is a bit exposed but has positives
Two runs ago he moved up to 3 miles
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
3 miles has produced 2 lifetime best
Some say he wants to go right handed
But I don't like to make assumptions
And he shortlistable on his positives
Selection
£3 Each Way WALK IN THE MILL 9/1
£2 Each Way KNOCKANRAWLEY 14/1
LINGFIELD 4.10
4/1 Strategic Heights, 9/2 Bridge Builder,
5/1 Gold Club, 7/1 Indian Affair, 8/1 Met By Moonlight,
10/1 Secret Strategy, 12/1 Compton Prince,
12/1 Yorkee Mo Sabee, 14/1 Picket Line,
25/1 Anonymous John, 33/1 Mossgo.
In all 6f races here since 2013
Horses drawn 12 or more are 0-26
ANNONYMOUS JOHN is badly drawn
Doesn't offer nearly enough anyway
SECRET STRATEGY is absent 151 days
PICKET LINE is absent 134 days
Horses aged under 7 years old
13 or more career starts
Absent more than 111 days
Have a 0-72 record in similar races
I am against both of these horses
MOSSGO is 8 and up in distance
Away from 5 furlongs he is risky
COMPTON PRINCE is not 1st choice
MET BY MOONLIGHT is a 4yo filly
She comes from a 5f race
I found some winning with under 7 runs
I found some winning with over 13 runs
Those like her with 7-13 runs were 0-19
So I can't match her exactly to winners
Given her draw has plenty to do
BRIDGE BUILDER won last time aged 8
27 horses aged 8 won last time
Only 1 of these followed up again
STRATEGIC HEIGHTS is a 9yo
Not the force he once was
Never runs a big number these days
WIth a recent run his profile is fine
INDIAN AFFAIR is in the same boat
Older horse fit and running well
GOLD CLUB won last time out
Horses aged 7 or more doing that
Absent more than 10 days
Had a worrying 1-48 record
GOLD CLUB fails that absent 20 days
YORKEE MO SABEE is a dilemma
He has raced just once in 119 days
Up in trip without a run in 6 weeks
May just be asking too much of him
But he has factors in his favour
He has significant backclass onside
He's come down 12lbs in the handicap
He has recently moved to a shrewd yard
And he is being very well backed
He is a money horse not a profile horse
But the race otherwise has me stumped
And many of these are much older horses
And he is still unexposed with 16 runs
And younger than most of his dangers
I think the best way to get out of this
Go for a win and plave split stake bet
Selection
Small Stakes
£5 Win Bet YORKEE MO SABEE 7/1
£5 Place Bet STRATEGIC HEIGHTS Evens
CHELMSFORD 8.15
5/2 Spare Parts, 5/1 Dor's Law, 6/1 Lunar Mist,
6/1 Satchville Flyer, 8/1 Mowhoob, Simply Clever,
12/1 Touch The Clouds, 14/1 Luduamf,
20/1 Emigrated, 25/1 Steel Helmet.
Fascinating race
SPARE PARTS you may recall
Was in an each way double recently
He was actually in big trouble
But his fitness got him home
SPARE PARTS needs to be a saver
One huge positive
One huge negative
He raced 2 days ago over 6f
This is a 2f step up in distance
Coming up 2 furlongs
With a 2 day absence is a big worry
Only 23 horses tried the same thing
In 8f races in the last 18 years
All of these horses lost
Normally I would oppose his profile
But look at his positives
Easily the fittest horse
He has 5 runs in 2018
None of his rivals have more than 1
Easily the Class horse
Miles clear on his numbers
SPARE PARTS is a 69 rated horse
Who faces only a 0-56 class field
He is superior in so many ways
Yet tries something not done in 18 years
And has to do it at a very short price
Lets make him a saver
Not many can win this race
LUNAR MIST is a filly with just 3 runs
SATCHVILLE FLYER doesn't stay 8f
STEEL HELMET is underraced
SIMPLY CLEVER is an older mare
Who has raced just once in 81 days
TOUCH THE CLOUDS is a 7yo
Poor numbers and 4 years since a win
LUDUAMF has miserable numbers
There really are some average types
SPARE PARTS must be a saver
He is a serious positive
He is a serious negative
Lets go with DORS LAW
Second topweight
Won last time out
We corner the class horses
Selection
£6 Win Bet DORS LAW 4/1
£4 Win Bet SPARE PARTS 6/4