Statistical Analysis Monday February 12th

4 races today
As Cheltenham/Aintree loom
We are only 40 short days away
From the new 2018 Flat season

PLUMPTON 2.15

11/8 Kaloci, 13/8 Harmonise,
12/1 Tierra Verde, 20/1 Chloe's Court,
25/1 Legend Of France
66/1 Atalanta's Gold.

Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m
6 Runners
2 look superior
3 can be involved

On hurdle numbers
KALOCI and HARMONISE stand out
They deserve to be 1st 2nd favourites
But I cxan't bring myself to bet either
HARMONISE is a 4 year old
She is not actually a 4yo until May
She is far younger than her rivals
She has only had 1 hurdle race
She was brought down in that race
And whilst her performance was credible
She has raced just once since October
I can't risk her on that profile
KALOCI Won last time
She is 2 years old as well
Normally I'd be all over her as a bet
But she is a tiny little thing
Give heavy ground I just wont bet her
So I am going for an alternative
The 3rd favourites each way with 2 places
Has work to do on the numbers
But not far enough behind to worry me

Selection

TIERRA VERDE 11/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2

Personally I'd try and get 9/2 on Betfair
In the each way market
As that gets you 3 places
But not many will get that
So the bet is only 2 places

CATTERICK 3.05

13/8 Red Infantry, 7/4 Sharp Response,
9/2 Golden Investment, 8/1 Allmyown,
12/1 Justforjames.

Novice Handicap Chase over 3m 1f

This stat is interesting

January February March
Since 2000
Novice Handicap Chases
3m 1f or more
Class 3 or lower

There have been 75 of these races
Horses aged 4-5-6-7
Coming from a Novice or Beginners Chase
Have a 0-42 record

That stat lasts 18 years in a 3 month period
SHARP RESPONSE has this 0-42 profile
What stops me getting too excited
Whilst he comes from a Novice Chase
He has run in handicaps before
GOLDEN INVESTMENT fell last time
I fancied him in the Yorkshire National
Although not a classical fit
I would frame a bet around him

Selection

GOLDEN INVESTMENT 7/2

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2 places

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.40

7/4 Dubawi Fifty, 7/2 Haines,
4/1 Velvet Revolution, 6/1 Suegioo,
7/1 Sam Missile, 16/1 Gwafa,
33/1 Iniciar.

Class 2 Handicap over 2m

DUBAWI FIFTY has some challenges
He has to step up from 1m 4f to 2 miles
And does that with 1 run since October
Looked at these races January to March
Whilst a small sample size in these months
No horse did that without 3 + recent runs
Throw in topweight and also 41 days off
The general package he offers is weak
The small field does increase his chance
But I don't see a profile I wanted to trust
GWAFA has a similar problem
He steps up 4f with 1 run in months
INICIAR is rejected as an 8yo debutant

VELVET REVOLUTION has a chance
He is very shortlistable on profile
Something surprises me about his sire
Pivotal has sired endless winners
Yet look at his runners over 2 miles or more
When running in Class 3 or higher
You find all 32 of these horses lost
Pivotal has never sired a winner over 2m +
In Class 3 or higher which and surprises me
VELVET REVOLUTION fails this breeding stat

SAM MISSILE has twice ran 2m in this class
Unplaced twice at 25/1 and 33/1
Not convinced he stays this far
But he has 3 runs in 2018
None of the others have more than 1

SUEGGIO is a 9 year old
That age is a problem in Class 2 races
He has not won since 2014 as well
Some of his profile worries me
But he does have a good recent run
This is a small field as well
And he is so well treated these days

HAINES offers some positives
Enough to make him a saver

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet SUEGGIO 6/1

£1.00 Win Bet SAM MISSILE 11/1

£1.50 Win Bet HAINES 6/1

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.10

100/30 Barnsdale, 4/1 Camino, Novabridge,
7/1 Ask The Guru, 8/1 Lambrini Legacy,
14/1 Little Nosegay, 20/1 Fuel Injection,
20/1 Spoken Words, 33/1 Whispering Wolf.

Low Grade 5f Handicap

The Big Gamble horse was Emjayem
But he is now a non runner
That has changed the dynamic

How many of these are actually fit ?

LITTLE NOSEGAY a filly absent 333 days

FUEL INJECTION a 7yo absent 292 days

CAMINO a 5yo mare with 1 run in 179 days

MOSTASHREQAH a mare absent 207 days

WHISPERING WOLF a mare absent 181 days

SPOKEN WORDS looks outclassed

Few of these offer much

NOVABRIDGE is a 10 year old now
Permenantly runs very average numbers

BARNSDALE won last time
Career best Racing Post Rating as well
But before we get too excited
He has raced 30 times before
His Career best rating is only 50
Many of these have beaten that

LAMBRINI LEGACY has a chance
Could have needed her last 2
Her previous 2 runs were over too far
She could easily nick this
Even if her form is tied up with Barnsdale
I liked her on video last time

ASK THE GURU interests me most
He is 8 and has 31 days off
But he doesn't like recent runs

He has a 9-73 career record
His 31 day absence may help

Look at his individual record
ASK THE GURU has a poor 1-30 record
When he runs in the previous 16 days
He stole the only race he won

Since 2015
When running over 5f
Class 5 or lower
Absent over 15 days
But no longer than 35 days
Fields of 11 or fewer

ASK THE GURU has raced 11 times
He Won 6 of those 11 races
So I find him interesting as well

Selection

£4.00 Each Way ASK THE GURU 5/1

£2.00 Win Bet LAMBRINI LEGACY 5/1