Has all else failed?
While headlines once again scream invasion of the Ukraine – the reality on the ground is far more complex.
To understand the current "crisis" the events of 2014 are needed as context.
Following the overthrow of the Yanokovich government, the Russian leaning president was replaced by an ultra nationalist regime.
Storm Clouds Gathering.
The Russian speaking population in the Eastern regions of Ukraine took fright at the ultra nationalist regime in Kiev. Spontaneous mass demonstrations took place in majority Russian speaking cities, from Kharkov to Donetsk to Sebastopol. The response of the Ukrainian government in the summer of 2014 was to launch a so-called "anti-terrorist" operation to retake control of these Russian speaking cities. In response militias began to be organised by Russian speakers in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. So in the summer of 2014 a civil war broke out between the Ukrainian army and the militia of Donetsk and Lugansk.
The fighting rapidly escalated to all out war which culminated in decisive defeats for the Ukrainian army in February 2015. The battles for Donetsk airport and Debaltsevo sent the Ukrainian army into full scale retreat. Following these defeats France and Germany initiated the negotiations that led to the Minsk 2 Peace Accords.
Leaders of Belarus, Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine at the summit in Minsk, 11–12 February 2015
This peace accord clearly states that the Ukrainian government must implement a wide range of reforms to bring peace to the country. If you look at the various measures in the peace accords it is clear that both President Poroshenko and President Zelensky have made zero effort to implement any aspect of the Minsk 2 Peace Accord.
Instead, the Ukrainian army for the last seven years has engaged in intense fighting along the contact line with the armed forces of the breakaway republics of Lugansk and Donetsk. This is easy to verify by examining the daily reports produced by the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) monitoring mission stationed in Eastern Ukraine. It provides daily reports of the intense artillery shelling conducted by both sides. This raging civil war which has been largely ignored by the Western press has resulted in the deaths of over 10,000 civilians. Until the Kiev government is pressured by the West into implementing the Minsk 2 Peace Accord, then there will be no peace in Eastern Ukraine.
Public Domain
The current "crisis" is pure political theatre generated by Biden to try and rescue his lamentable low poll ratings. It is widely acknowledged that the Democrats fear a huge electoral defeat in the mid-terms this year. If Russia really wanted to invade Ukraine it would have done so back in 2014 when the Ukrainian armed forces were in disarray. In the current situation one has to ask the question who stands to gain from any potential war in the Ukraine? Putin has no interest in taking over a very hostile Ukrainian population. Whatever one may think of Putin he is no fool and has no desire to repeat the mistakes of the Soviet Union.
The biggest danger in the current situation is the encouragement of the West has given to the Ukrainian government it is clear by the movement of large quantities of heavy weaponry along the contact line that the UAF appears to be gearing up for some kind of offensive. You will hear nothing about this in the Western media. Emboldened by Western support the Ukrainian government has intensified the artillery shelling against the Lugansk and Donetsk regions. Plus incursions to sabotage infrastructure.
The media went so far as to show grannies being trained in the use of weapons, supposedly to fight off an imminent Russian invasion of their homeland. It turns out that this was the Neo-Nazi outfit Azhov Battalion. How embarrassing.
In response, taking most by surprise, Putin acted with the determination lacking in 2014/15 and swiftly recognised the People’s Republics of Donetsz and Lugansk. Having basically announced a pledge to protect them Putin moved in some forces. I think its a fair criticism to say Putin has helped keep this conflict going by drip feeding them help without the sufficient weight to win a decisive victory. The next step for Putin maybe to incorporate them into Russia via another annexation. You can hear the headlines now.
The West seem to be scratching their heads over what they have considered Putin’s weird speech on Monday. Indeed they can’t seem to account for Putin at all. Firstly his speech was addressed to Russians – not to a Western audience. Lets just say they do things differently there.
They can’t seem to work out whether Putin is a throwback or a visionary. I understand he is a good chess player. He strikes me as calm, collected, even dispassionate leader. He plays the role of stern father to the Russian people. Although I’m sure he lets his hair down with the boys.
Why has all this happened now?
That's a really good question.
Well it’s certainly distracted from the hasty funeral arranged for the pandemic. The volatility of the stock market has been blamed on the Ukraine situation. Further sanctions were the inevitable outcome of this. Who benefits? It certainly won’t be Europe.
There is also this nagging suspicion that behind the scenes Putin et al are more pally pally with the West then they would like us to believe. That this little piece of political theatre had been prepared in advance. Putin playing the role of the world’s baddy like Mephisto. We are aware that Putin was one of Yeltsin’s entourage which had the nickname the family – who looted the Russian state and became excessively rich. We also know he, like many world leaders, are associated with the world economic forum.
I have to say then I mention names like Mrs. Merkel, even Vladimir Putin and so on they all have been Young Global Leaders of The World Economic Forum. But what we are really proud of now with the young generation like Prime Minister Trudeau, President of Argentina and so on, is that we penetrate the cabinets… It is true in Argentina and it is true in France now… (Klaus Schwab) .
The pandemic is dead! The economic collapse gathers pace! Let’s take them to war!
