Is It Time To Buy??? - Part 18
President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House coronavirus press briefing on Monday that he sees “a tremendous light at the end of the tunnel” amid the pandemic.
Silvia Ardagna, managing director in the investment strategy group within Goldman Sachs agrees with the president and said, “right now is a good time to get back into markets and take advantage of the decline in equity markets to position for the rebound.”
It also was announced by the Trump administration that they could relax coronavirus guidelines as early as Wednesday for Americans who have been exposed but have no symptoms to return to work, particularly those in essential jobs. President Trump is itching to get people back to work. But I think it’s an easy said than done type of ordeal.
Last week Bill Gate said despite urging from public health experts, some states and counties haven’t shut down completely. In some states, beaches are still open; in others, restaurants still serve sit-down meals. This is a recipe for disaster. Because people can travel freely across state lines, so can the virus.
That’s Goldman Sachs’s chief equity strategist, David Kostin, explaining during a CNBC phone interview on Tuesday that recent enthusiasm for stocks don’t necessarily constitute an all-clear signal for bullish investors seeking a path higher for the pandemic-stricken markets.
“There’s a little bit of asymmetry in terms of the downside risk toward a level in the S&P 500 of around 2,000, which is down almost 25%, and upside of around 10% to a target at the end of the year of 3,000,” he explained on Tuesday’s edition of the channel’s “Squawk on the Street” program.
In the past two weeks, we have seen about 10 million unemployment claims filed. These numbers have shattered any record we have ever seen in history.
The record setting unemployment claims continued this morning with an additional 6.6 million Americans filing first-time unemployment claims in the week ended April 4. That brings the total over the past three weeks to more than 16 million.
So are we going to have a “V” recovery. Perhaps a “U” or an “L” shape recovery. Perhaps a 50% retracement before the next leg down. Bill Gates said Tuesday evening on a PBS Newshour, that it might not be until fall 2021 that Americans “can be completely safe” from COVID-19. But what if it takes longer...what will that mean for demand? What does that mean for the S&P 500?
This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advice. Do your own research before making investment decisions.