Interesting patterns in Steem's historical prices during mid of every year along with bottom and peak.

I have recently asked Steemit about peak and bottom price, but got very few replies. There I discussed an interesting pattern about Steem's price swing. Steem swings 30-40X within a year. For example, if one buys at bottom for $10K Steem, than it can become $300-400K at the peak.

However, in case of 2018 one has to short-sell, as far as I know, Steem cannot be shorted at any exchange. In that case, if one already had say, 50K Steem, sell it for $8.5, then buy back at 25 cents then he will have 1.7M Steem. Such an wild swing!

2016: Peak during May- July: $4.35, Low during November-December: 11 cents, 40X swing
2017: Peak during May- July: $2.65, Low during March-April: 7.5 cents, 30X swing
2018: Peak during January-February: $8.5 and May-July: $4, Low during November-December: 22 cents, 20-40X swing
2019: Peak $X.xx and Bottom $X.xx

If you look in to the above chart by courtesy of @stefen about Steem's historical price, you will find that Steem usually peak during mid of the year.

May- July, 2016: $4.35
May-July, 2017: $2.65
May-July, 2018: $4
May-July, 2019: $X.xx??

Such strong patterns!

Now think that if we take current price of Steem of 28 cents a near low, since historically Steem's low against BTC is around 0.00006 to 0.00008, currently at 0.000073. If Steem gains 20X at peak it will be $5.6 and 40X at peak it will be $11.2. It will be very interesting if Steem repeats these historical swings.

Now to the bottom side, let's guess that Steem's peak is at 28 cents. It is very very unlikely due to BTC ratio (historical support at 0.000065) but nobody knows if BTC will go back to $1000 again, it is not impossible. Then Steem will be around 1.4 cents at 20X down and 0.7 cents at 40X down.

However, I will buy 8 millions of Steem, if it ever goes to 0.7 cents at $56K and become the largest whale superseding @freedom (pun intended). Therefore, it is very unlikely scenario!

We may not have seen the bottom of Steem since there is a talk of BTC' bottoming at higher or lower $2K's. In that scenario, Steem can see low at 10-15 cents.

With certain probability we can see that Steem's bottom will be between 10-28 cents. At lowest swing (20X and 10 cents) Steem will peak at $2 (with high probability) and highest swing $11.2 (0.28*40, and low probability).

If it does not repeat this pattern then we can say that 2019 is a stable year for both BTC and Steem. I also believe we will not see that much swings this year.

#AskSteemit:What do guys think about this pattern?

Will we see another 30-40X swing this year too?

What you guys think about peak and bottom for steem in 2019?

Disclaimer: This opinion is not a financial advice, it my personal perspective and opinion. Please seek professionals for financial decisions.

Image sources: Most images are open sourced (e.g. Pixabay, Wikimedia etc.) with Creative common license. Some images are used with due courtesy to respected owners.

Thanks for reading.
@riseofth
Cryptominer since 2013, occasional trader and tech blogger