Last month, I posted the article, How attractive is the SPS as a takeover target?. It had occurred to me that the @steem.dao fund is growing larger every day, and at some point a desire to gain a controlling interest in that fund might become a reason for a well-funded investor to buy a large amount of STEEM - especially at times when STEEM prices go lower.

It also occurred to me that the existence of the SPS might put some sort of floor under the price of STEEM for the exact same reason.

Where are those price points (if they exist)? I have no idea, but I thought I would start collecting daily statistics in order to see how the value and attractiveness of the SPS changes over time. Two weeks later, I posted A first look at the SPS cost-benefit numbers.

Today, we can take a 2^nd look at the numbers, after completing daily downloads for one month (and a couple days). With Monday's big bloodbath in the crypto markets, I was curious to see how these numbers would look today.

First, here is the visual:

Next, let's look at how the values and cost/benefit ratios (CBR) changed.

Type	Metric	July 7	August 10
Values
	External Value	$10,306,400	$12,190,100
	Nominal Value	$4,540,274.50	$4,617,477.52
	Haircut Value	$3,069,650	$3,106,350
Cost/Benefit
	External CBR	1.99	1.68
	Nominal CBR	4.52	4.45
	Haircut CBR	6.68	6.61

Key points:

• The value of the SPS has gone up by all measurements
• The cost:benefit ratio for control of that fund has gone down by all measurements

Assumptions and other notes:

• Right or wrong, the assumption here is that someone who controls 25% of the current STEEM supply could control the SPS distributions.
• As a general rule, a lower CBR indicates that the SPS is a more attractive target. For example (remembering that a "controlling interest" is not ownership),
  • With the current "External CBR", an investor would buy $1.68 in STEEM for control of each additional $1.00, which is something akin to an instantaneous gain of 59%.
  • On July 7, the "External CBR" implied that an investor would buy $1.99 in STEEM to control an additional dollar - which implied an instantaneous increase in control of 33%.
• My gut-feeling is that the "Haircut CBR" is the one that matters the most as a reflection of investing incentives. It's interesting to see a smooth and steady downward drift for that metric. I wasn't necessarily expecting that behavior, and I'm curious to see if it persists.
• The point of this exercise is just to have a consistent framework for day to day comparison. In the real world, it's obviously much more complicated because:
  • any sizeable buying of STEEM would drive price movement before a 25% interest could be purchased
  • any sizeable selling of SBDs would also drive price movement after the buyer had attained a controlling interest
  • There are limits to how many SBDs could be withdrawn from the DAO in a single day.
• You can see the script that does the downloads, here, and the meaning of the metrics is described, here.

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Thank you for your time and attention.

As a general rule, I up-vote comments that demonstrate "proof of reading".

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Steve Palmer is an IT professional with three decades of professional experience in data communications and information systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics, a master's degree in computer science, and a master's degree in information systems and technology management. He has been awarded 3 US patents.

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^{Pixabay license, source}

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