BTC halving watch: ~9 months out and what does it mean for Steem?
The next anticipated BTC halving date is April 26, 2024, so it's presently about 9 months away. We all know that past performance doesn't tell us much about future results, but I can't help myself from being curious. So, just for fun I thought I'd use coingecko to check BTC prices from 9 months before to 9 months after the 2016 and 2020 halvings. Here's what I found.
Halving date July 9, 2016
October 2015 to April 2017 - $250 to $1,250 (roughly)
Halving date: May 11, 2020
August, 2019 to February, 2021 - $10K to $5K to $50K (roughly)
Halving date: April 26, 2024(?)
July, 2023 to January, 2025
T - B - D
So,
- In 2015-2017, we see a 5X increase that happened smoothly across the entire time period.
- In 2019-2021, we see a 50% decline during the first 7 months followed by a 10X increase that happened mostly during the last 5 months of the window - for a total of 5X with most of the gains starting ~4 1/2 months after the halving. Maybe it's also worth noticing that the "bottom" came in March, 2020, right at the beginning of pandemic lockdowns in the US and Europe.
- There's no way to know what happens from 2023-2025, except to wait and see, but it'll be interesting for sure.
But why did the title mention Steem?
From a Steem perspective, the interesting thing about the coming halving is that I believe the new_steem_per_day will max out in mid-February. If so, during the entire next ~4 year BTC halving cycle, the expected new Steem production each day will be declining in comparison to daily BTC production. (slowly, at first, with the first halving of newly created STEEM taking place over about 11 years and the second and final one taking another 3 years.)
I'm pretty sure that this declining ratio of expected_new_steem_per_day/new_bitcoin_per_day for an entire BTC halving cycle has never happened before. If my previous analysis was correct, this dynamic will repeat again in the 5th (circa 2028) and 6th BTC halving cycles before changing direction again during the 7th.
I don't make price predictions, but I'm definitely curious to see what the next 18 months will bring!
P.S. In case you missed it, the next LTC halving is Wednesday.
Thank you for your time and attention.
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Steve Palmer is an IT professional with three decades of professional experience in data communications and information systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in mathematics, a master's degree in computer science, and a master's degree in information systems and technology management. He has been awarded 3 US patents.
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The price of cryptocurrency is formed on the basis of a large number of variable factors. Therefore, predicting it is a thankless task. But, like everyone else, this question interests me.
Undoubtedly, the rise in the price of Bitcoin will drag the price of STEEM along with it. However, in my opinion, there are many STEEM holders right now who are waiting for the price to rise in order to sell their stake. Therefore, I would venture a guess that the next bull market peak for STEEM will be lower than the previous one and the STEEM/BTC price ratio will decrease.
This is likely to be the final stage of the cleanup of the STEEM economy, with the blockchain leaving most of the disillusioned. After that, if things continue as they are now, the STEEM economy will begin to recover. Recovery is possible, because a large part of the community is motivated to hold tokens, thanks to the club system. Also, part of the community voluntarily burns part of their rewards. It seems that it has no effect, but I am convinced that it does not.
All these predictions are worthless if there are big shifts. For example, I'm sure that Justin Sun is getting ready to leave the project, since the amount of TRX that authors receive for their posts has been gradually decreasing recently. This can have both a negative informational effect and a positive one.
Good point, and you might be right. I hadn't thought about that possibility. My thinking had been that the fund might just be running out of tokens. Around the time that the TRX rewards started, I seem to remember that steemit had transferred something like 22 million STEEM to one of the exchanges. I had always assumed that that transfer was what funded TRX Integration, and that TRX rewards would eventually run out. If so, the repeated reductions might just be intended to extend the fund's life.
Here what is needed is more activity on the part of the developers, I have said this several times , I don't like clubs, that of club 50/50, club 100 , it doesn't seem fair to me If each post is already 50/50, and some contests say that leaving 20% in favor, I better not say more, what is needed is people who put on the shirt in my opinion, it is Just like owning a house and letting someone else fix it while you watch.
2021 was the golden time for steem and many crypto experts says altcoins are connected to BTC and the pump and dump seems really affect each coin value.
You may not predict coin price or value but you always share previous records and data that contain helpful information. Honestly I'm not yet that knowledgeable about cryptos, halving and market but I follow discussions of experts like you. Thanks for sharing ❤️
Really interesting subject, i didn't know steem and btc could have similarites liek this