STEEM vs HIVE price performance (and what it means)

in Project HOPE4 years ago

Hello everyone,

While i am not really excited right now to write much on any of the platforms because all the kid's fight that is happening lately, there is something i am following very close, mostly because this could be a first indication on what might happen in the future, and that is how each asset is performing on the actual situation.

While the prices on the markets are mostly speculative, and a lot of what is happening there right now is mostly related to hype (good or bad), i think it is a good measure of how the fork is being seen by the markets.

Prices performance sonce HIVE launch

Everyone is mostly aware that right now, HIVE is being seen as more valuable by the markets, but how much is this value?

You can see it here:

image.png

Since HIVE were listed on BITTREX,

STEEM - (-19.87%)
HIVE - (+42,71%)

So, in theory, the markets are thinking that HIVE is 62,58% more valuable than STEEM.

But keep in mind, that this can be a reflection of a lot of people trading their STEEM for HIVE, and this valuation can be short-termed.

SBD vs HBD

Now, here is an interesting case:

image.png

Both chains have their backed dollars down, but HBD is down +- 20% more than SBD

But while this might make SBD looks like a better deal than HBD, we have to remember what is the porpuse of the token backed dollar: Be as close as 1 USD and as possible.

As a side effect, a better criteria to compare these two tokens would be how stable (less volatile) each of them is. So let's take a look at SBDUSD and HBDUSD prices (Red = SBD and Blue = HBD):

image.png

Looks like HIVE is also performing better here. Besides the big drop that happened at the beginning of the listing on HBD, a few days later, HBD reached a way more stable and less volatile movement range.

Remember that the point of having a Token backed dollar is to reduce risk, and the more volatile an asset is, the bigger the risk (and the possible reward though).


Anyway, that is the situation we are at right now, and it will be really interesting to follow what will happen to the price, and how they will evolve, depending on what direction each platform will go.

There is a lot to happen in the next days, and will try to follow it and try to mark when major changes happen on both blockchains to try to see how they are affecting the price.

While some might argue that the price doesn't mean anything, i would like to say that the price of an asset is a reflection of how much that asset is valued by the markets, and how much people are willing to pay.

And in STEEM and HIVE cases, buying more tokens means having more influence on the platform, therefore it's kind of logical to conclude that the higher the price, more people are willing to pay more to have this influence.

And that say a lot about both platforms.

Sort:  

It's hard not to have an impression that current HIVE token price jump is only related to large accounts dumping STEEM and trading it.

It doesn't really reflect any value

 4 years ago 

Dear @phgnomo

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this particular topic. Obviously, I'm very interested what people who are part of project.hope think.

I'm also quite tired of all this fighting that has been taking place lately.

i think it is a good measure of how the fork is being seen by the markets.

Markets? I seriously doubt that markets are reacting in any way to those forks. My belief is that majority of current volumes are created by either Justin, witnesses or some whales.

The fact that price of HIVE went up so much isn't much of a surprise. After all it doesn't take much to pump price of this token up and as long as many powerful users will be powering down their STEEM and trading to HIVE - we will see demand overpowering supply.

Will that last long? Will it continue once most of those users complete their power down? I hardly doubt so.

So, in theory, the markets are thinking that HIVE is 62,58% more valuable than STEEM.

Current price is nothing but manipulation and creating demand, which is based on dumping STEEM. It doesn't reflect any real strength and it cannot last forever.

enjoy your weekend,
Yours, Piotr

I do not believe the market shows the strength of a platform. Currently, it is no doubt that there will be a lot of dumping after which people will start to buy back into the project. The market doesn't mean steem will die or is in a state of dilemma. I believe both chains can co-exist.

I wanted to start trading Hive but they have currency maintenance on bittrex , will have to wait for that to finish or for other listings

Thanks for making things clear in this article ! :)

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I am not able to post articles on hive peakhk...so posted here, although...well, HIVE platform still needs to like get standard, till them I got to use steem website as well. Very interesting article/

 4 years ago 

Thanks for the price analysis, I had noticed that the prices seemed to be separating, taking advantage of the Hive token, but having the graphics and the datso that support it give better support to what I was thinking.

I also think that increasing the Hive token may be a short-lived effect while the Steem is turned off to turn on in the new chain, so we would have to wait the corresponding 13 weeks to be more clear about it.

well i'm tired of all this fight on steemit. Regarding the prices, I am convinced that it is a manipulation of Justin and / or several whales (most likely they are witnesses).
I still trust stermit and I think this de hive is only a temporary hype that will last a month or two. We will have to see later what is convenient for us.

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