💨Can you smell it? ☝️🤭 The fresh market breeze?
Hello Steemit friends,
While i'm carefully listen to pessimistic voices who expecting the worst like the
- downfall of SMT
- downfall of all gambling dapps on Steem, EOS, Tron
- downfall of the price and Bitcoin itself
- downfall of the whole Steem eco system
The many "no hopers" and "naysayers" are a good indicator for the development of a new dawn in crypto.
We love Patterns!
I decided to playing around with the Steem chart from coinmarketcap.com which can be great fun from time to time. Especially if we look from a macroeconomic perspective and bring some long term charts into play. We love patterns and there is always the inevitable herd factor of mankind visualized in these charts. Just look at the pattern for Steem below:
We can see three huge price spikes since 2016. The first one in mid of July 2016 the second one in April 2017 and the third in line with the Bitcoin bubble mania December 2017. All three lived very short and led to a long market depression with plummeting prices. They also represent the pillars to build a bathtub like curve.
| start price | peak price | multiple start | duration | start month | characteristics | gap prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.20 | $4.31 | 21x bagger | 10 days | July 2016 | superfast parabolic | - |
| $0.15 | $2.75 | 18x bagger | 2 months | April 2017 | slow and bumpy | 12 months |
| $0.90 | $8.57 | 9x bagger | 1.5 months | Nov 2017 | quite fast parabolic | 7 months |
Because this is about 0.75 to 1 year time span between them with huge multiples we can ignore all the small spikes and peaks and simply look at the big picture. In the this short sequence of 3 events we see decreasing multiples. But interesting enough Steem is today at $0.29 in comparison to similar prices 2.5 years ago. In terms of value and growth that is not very encouraging. If you look to Bitcoin we had also a huge drop in price after the last peak, but from July 2016 until today Steem increased about x1.5 vs. BTC x5.5!
What's the mathematical consequence?
Simply out of curiosity i started creative thinking on this subject.
First this is just a funny experiment to draw the curve into the future. Nobody can look into a crystal ball 🔮 and tell you what will happen next with high precision. But all these hype cycles follow a similar pattern and are based on our human emotion. What influences our emotions?
- gut feeling (based on our perception and knowledge)
- alleged facts (by ourselves and others without proof)
- real facts (proven by trustworthy source of information)
- time of year (less sun = depressive, more sun = fun)
- our daily form (sick, lazy, sleepy = depressive, fit & awake = positive)
Ok, enough. The point is we have a mixture of different factors which can drive a market up or down and if i assume we have a pattern in this chart above, maybe we can use a "W" for the three hype cycles in Steem.
| start price | peak price | multiple start | duration | start month | characteristics | gap prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.20 | $4.31 | 21x bagger | 10 days | July 2016 | superfast parabolic | - |
| $0.15 | $2.75 | 18x bagger | 2 months | April 2017 | slow and bumpy | 12 months |
| $0.90 | $8.57 | 9x bagger | 1.5 months | Nov 2017 | quite fast parabolic | 7 months |
| $0.43(1) | $4.62(1) | 10x bagger | 7 months | April 2019 | very slow | 22 months |
| $2.56(1) | $23.45(1) | 9x bagger | 4 months | Sep 2020 | not so fast | 14 months |
(1)fictional values
In this model you can see that the time periods between the peaks doubling. Ok, but is there more than just chart speculation?
We only see what we want to see?
The second half of 2017 looked like everybody had inhaled Hopeum which pumped each and every project whether it was just a scammy whitepaper website or a serious company. Now we look back about 2 years since the beginning of this huge bull run. What we have now, i think much less Hopeum but really serious development in many areas:
The Bitcoin case
Bitcoin revenue for buying goods was about 1 billion USD in 2018 worldwide while the market was in a deep bear market until now. This number is similar to the prior year 2017 but we know this was the year of the big hype cycle. So to put this in perspective we see much confidence in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at whole and again in the deepest bear market!
The Lightning Network case
It's also a Bitcoin case because this is the scaling solution for Bitcoin which will allow almost zero fees and lightning fast transaction like would send a beam of light from Europe to the US. If you have the nerve just look at the recksplorer which visualizes the Lightning Network in it's current state and i can tell you it is growing day by day! Currently we have a capacity of 68.469.679.205,00 sat which equals about 684 Bitcoin (BTC) or USD value 2.46 million. This is still tiny if you look at world money in the trillions of USD but if this gets traction with big merchants and companies and also in the retail sector it could went parabolic. Jack Dorsey gave recently a hint regarding Lightning payment within his Square mobile app.
The Pundi X case
This project has no other goal to make the use of cryptocurrencies as easy as buying a bottle of milk. Currently they deliver another batch of 7,500 XPOS devices to retail merchants worldwide. The following picture is from Twitter user Superbit123 who created it to show the current market penetration of Pundi X.
Currently they preparing for the move to their own blockchain fx() and vastly accelerated the ongoing airdrop to finish it far earlier in summer 2019 instead of January 2021. This means the current monthly rate of 2.11637% increases to a whopping 11.063% for 3 months. Starting with random snapshot in March 19 and first of three airdrops at the beginning of April.
Development wise they also published the first crypto phone called XPhone which will be limited to a production of 50k.
The Opera case
Opera provides now on Google Playstore a built-in crypto wallet. With such native support for cryptocurrencies it is another stepping stone towards mainstream adoption. You know it's not the most popular browser but a beginning.
The Steem Tokenization case
Steem Monsters is one of the most successful dapps on Steem. Already thousands of players buying, selling, trading monster cards and battling for the ranks. Soon we'll see automatic tournaments and further tokenization which drives also other dapps like Magic Dice, DLike, Actifit, Appics or 1Up.
Is this the end my friend?
These were just a few examples for development and adoption. Ethereum is at the brink for a scaling solution too. Trading desks and custody solutions by major banks and investment companies are in preparation. The regulators are learning more and more how to deal with the already very diverse crypto market to offer more protection for regular people and also institutions.
We are now for over one year in a bear market cycle it seems we almost bottomed out our bathtub curve. Maybe we'll see more downward pressure short term (a few weeks and months) but no armageddon like event i guess. We started with about 1,000 USD for 1 Bitcoin in January 2017 and are now at about 3,500 USD per Bitcoin. Together with the strong development of scaling solutions, further merchant adoption and the increasing awareness of regular people this is very healthy valuation in my point of view. The last hype cycle started slowly in January 2017, two years ago.
To underpin my feelings of a new dawn for crypto i can just look around among my family and friends. My kids 🧒 talking about Bitcoin and you should hear what they are sometimes saying!:
"Cryptocurrencies are the future! Many people don't know how good that would be for them in daily life."
Hehe, no i was just speechless as i heared that from my 11 year old son. Wow! And also my wife sent me recently advertisements from crypto enthusiasts who organize seminars in our neighbor town to teach people about cryptocurrencies or sometimes she is asking:
..and one of my colleagues too. All these people have nothing at stake. They are just curious, they wanna know more about it. These people have different backgrounds, education, different jobs and are from different gender and age.
If i look 1.5 years back, oh my goodness.. nobody of these people was interested. It was quite the opposite. Everybody talked about a scam, criminals, darknet or didn't even know anything about it. That is a fundamental shift in the sentiment with all these new people to crypto and i can feel the sparkling of bubbles like swimming in soda water now. So the answer is a big NO!.
What is your sentiment?
not marked pictures by pixabay.com
in the downfall look at those projects who are not even able to stand now hopefully this trend will be reversed
it will it's like a law of nature in case of crypto. It's here to stay, too many application already. It's likely that even good projects must give up short term but may get the funds via vc funds then to continue. Thanks for your visit!