Tesla Model X toyota

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FREMONT, CA - SEPTEMBER 29: Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks on a new Tesla Model X Crossover SUV on September 29, 2015 in Fremont, California. After several production delays, Elon Musk officially launched the much anticipated Tesla Model X Crossover SUV. (Photo by Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)

Everyone agrees that Elon Musk, the visionary entrepreneur who put a Tesla cabriolet into orbit on February 6, is very bold. The day after this technical feat, he explained to Wall Street analysts how he intended to produce more and better than Toyota. And he really thinks it's possible.

But he is certainly the only one to believe it.

Not to mention the production problems that pushed the release of the Model 3 by at least six months, Elon Musk said with confidence: "In the long run, Tesla's competitive strength will not be its cars but its production capacity" .

Elon Musk is confident that Tesla can build a million vehicles a year in one factory by simplifying model design and installing more robots and more compact assembly processes. This production is four times higher than that of an average plant and far exceeds that of the Volkswagen factory in Wolfsburg, Germany, the most productive in the world.

"The leaders of the auto industry think they are very strong in production, and indeed they are not bad. But he does not realize the margin of progress possible. It's much bigger than they think, "says Elon Musk before comparing current production speeds to a" senior with a walker. We could accelerate the pace ...

Most auto production experts will tell you, designing a fully automated plant that comes out of millions of cars a year would be an unnamed madness. It would swallow billions of dollars of capital and eventually fail.

First of all, this mode of production does not take into account the market demand. Elon Musk plans to build a million copies of his crossover, the Model Y. It's more than the Ford F pickups, which are by far the largest sales in the United States. Production must reflect consumer demand and not what a plant is capable of doing. Many people have become enamored with Tesla's electric car, but competitors are starting to flood the market with similar models. There will never be enough buyers to sell all the production, except perhaps in China, where the government wants to eliminate less environmentally friendly cars. Until now, the demand for electric vehicles is quite low and if it's to end up with a factory full of robots at a standstill on the arms, so much to throw money from the windows right away.

"If he put in place all the robotic equipment he's talking about, it would be a disaster," says Jeffrey Liker, retired professor at the University of Michigan who, in 2004, published "The Toyota Way," a book describing Toyota's production principles that have influenced the entire automotive industry. Jeffrey Liker, however, thinks that this disaster will not happen: "His advisors are smart enough to realize that his ideas are not viable." The professor was referring to Elon Musk's February 7 statement against Wall Street analysts. Tesla reports a net loss of $ 2 billion (€ 1.6 billion) in fiscal 2017.

During this interview, the CEO of Tesla had to return briefly to the difficulties encountered with the production of Model 3. He detailed the schedule of production objectives that will allow the company to reach its maximum yield and a margin 25% gross. He also gave an overview of his long-term production intentions.

Elon Musk is well aware that Tesla has been overconfident about his battery production capabilities (his specialty) at his Reno plant in Nevada. According to him, the new automation equipment that will be put in place in March should improve productivity. In the meantime, however, he noted that the factory workers were trying to make up for the gap in a very remarkable way: "The rapid evolution of progress and the ability of humans to adapt quickly to new situations" has given a little faith in humanity ".

What should allow Tesla to achieve its production goals is a sophisticated and automated parts delivery system at Fremont's assembly plant in California. This site was formerly a joint factory of Toyota and General Motors and an example in terms of productivity in its time. In presenting this system