Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: What's new
28 September 2017
Week 5 Day 4: What's new? Answer: not much
Once again the prices give us little indication of the underlying forces determining the volatility of the cryptocurrencies. Zcash might seem healthiest in its movement towards a 50% gain but at $303 it is still a long way off the $438 target.
In fact, the daily fluctuations have been so wide I have decided to include records of the price at the time of day when I was writing these notes and give some indication of the 24-hour volatility: an amazing 33% in the case of Zcash, though it is still 2.6% below its 26 August price.
Some of the coins that have fared worst earlier — Ripple, Litecoin and Dash — are now well placed comparatively, while losing ground in the shortest term. Superprofiits are still a day trader's game.
Crypto developments
None of these events change the picture in themselves. But they may lead to something substantial.
Ripple Opens Office in Singapore
San Francisco-based blockchain startup Ripple has opened shop in Singapore, one of the world’s leading trade and financial hubs. It comes weeks after the launch of its
office in India, the world’s largest remittance receiver.
Singapore sees some $550 billion in trade flowing through the country annually, altcointoday says in its 26 September report.
Ripple developed the Ripple Consensus Ledger (RCL), an enterprise-ready public blockchain specifically designed for banks and financial institutions to enable cross-border payments in 2012. Ripple’s native token, XRP, powers the RCL blockchain and currently sees a market cap of just under $7 billion, altcointoday adds.
First bank ATM with bitcoin?
The Slovenian savings bank Hranilnica Lon has enabled customers to purchase bitcoin with its classic automated teller machine (ATM) located in the company’s lobby. The Kranj-based bank believes it’s the first bank worldwide to implement bitcoin into a traditional ATM, reported altcointoday on 26 September.
The machine dispenses bitcoin using a voucher system which can be redeemed online.
First New Zealand-Based Token Launch Using Ethereum
The New Zealand-based Circles Project for video and social media went live wth its token offering this week.
DCE Brief reported on 28 September: "Circles is born in response to public discontent at the direction social media platforms like YouTube and Patreon have taken to unfairly censoring and demonetizing the videos by its content creators."
Felix Watkins, the project leader of circles said that:
Circles wants to create a new economic model where content creators on social media platforms can receive payment directly from their supporters, making their income immune from demonetization policy by third parties. The system functions as a browser extension for both Chrome and Firefox, that allows viewers to ‘circulate’ content to all of their social media pages.
This may be worth scoring if the token crowd-funding works.
Dimon Faces Market Abuse Charge
Blockswater suggests JP Morgan traded bitcoin derivatives for their clients on Stockholm-based exchange Nasdaq Nordic before and after Dimon’s statements, which it said “smells like market manipulation”.
This, too, would be worth scoring if it leads to any action by the EU.
Bitcoin and gamblers
Bitcoin gamblers having wagered a staggering $4.5 billion through the cryptocurrency since 2014, reported btcnews on 19 June.
This may seem old news but its article is one of the most thorough I have seen in examining the issues (though facts are obviously scarce).
"Not only can gamblers access online casinos discreetly if they wish, but there is also an opportunity for them to operate more responsibly by keeping their bank roll separate to their main funds," btcnews points out.
"There is every chance that Bitcoin will evolve to a point where it dominates online casino transactions and alters the nature of the market forever," it adds.
Blockchain Startup ChainTrade Emphasizes the Advantages of Decentralized Exchanges in Commodities Trading
Commodities trading over exchanges makes up for a global market share of about $2 trillion every year, reported btcnews on 26 September.
"Fees are high for traders and producers. This, in turn, makes it an exclusive venture only reserved for major banks and investors as bigger players get better fees at better terms," btcnews observes.
ChainTrade, originally a Singaporean startup part of the Blue Tiger group and currently present in six countries, is moving futures and options on food and raw materials (commodity derivatives) to a decentralized blockchain. This allows anyone to participate, both small and big players, btcnews reports.
"Fees to traders, buyers and sellers will decrease dramatically. Smart Contracts will replace traditional contracts and cut intermediaries," ChainTrade's website asserts.
Its timeline has token trading scheduled for a November launch with a Singapore licence in April 2018 and Chinese official approval in April 2019. Its goal is to gain a 5% market share of food and raw materials transactions by July 2020, the website declares.
DASH system questioned
The DASH cryptocurrency, which is currently up 85% on its 90-day price, suffered a significant drop on 24-25 September just before an article appeared on themerkle documenting the possibility that the creator holds a master key that enables him to roll back 24 hours of transactions.
This came to light because of action over a potential bug, prompting developers to disable Dash's InstantSend feature.
The merkle's writer JP Buntinx writes:
If there is any truth to such a “master private key”, things would not look great for Dash. For the time being, this is mostly speculation, even though there is a precedent to back up such claims. Disabling some network functionality on a whim without any intervention by the community, a client upgrade or a network fork is pretty worrisome, even if it were done to protect the network as a whole.
The headline was: "Is There Such Thing as a Master Private Key for the Dash Ecosystem?"
An article commentator responded: "As usual, when there's a question in the headline, the answer is 'no'. Because if the thing you're asking was actually true, the headline would be much better as 'There Is A Master Private Key For The Dash Ecosystem'."
.Several others were critical. As it stands, DASH is 4.46% down, 11% down on 30 days, and 383% above its six-month price.
Its trading volume suggest that if anything, the one-day and seven-day amounts have been below the average for the past 30 days. Nowhere does it appear in the top five coin trades.
Maybe investors do not think the issue as important as some journalists.
Previous days' commentaries
Excel version
Click here for an Excel 1997-2003 version of this table with records key records, free for download. There's also an Excel version of the shorter summary screenshot used above.
Superforecasting
Indicators
I've listed my seven indicators and explanations of what I consider important here.