Superforecasting cryptocurrencies: Week 10: what's new

nusefile (40)in #crypto • 7 years ago

19 November 2017

Rather than colour-code the price results in my charts, I decided to highlight just the days when the results fell outside the previous week's standard variability.

This shows how Ripple's climb depended largely on one day, while Bitcoin Cash's bouncing up and down was limited to basically two days.

Similarly, three outliers largely accounted for Bitcoin's finishing the week 17.3% up.

This suggests the volatility is the response of a few players in the major cryptocurrency markets, though you'd have to investigate the size of individual orders on those days to know whether these were individual traders or exchanges.

For my purposes it is not necessary to know. It simply gives me more reason to believe the survey that reported on 17 November that "Americans Investing in Bitcoin Are Holding for the Long Term".
The average portfolio was worth $2,930.85, and around 39% said they planned to hold their bitcoin nvestment for up to three years. Indeed, 67% of these investors have not sold any of their positions since investing. About two-thirds planned to report their transactions to the IRS.

Crypto developments

Coinbase offers store for digital coins for hedgefund institutional investors

The exchange that controls 10% of the bitcoins in circulation has launched of a new company to help institutional investors securely store digital assets.

The new business, Coinbase Custody, said it is already storing more than $9bn of digital currency on behalf of customers.

Litecoin announces "Instant BTC-LTC Cross-Chain Transactions On Lightning"

"We have successfully tested the first Lightning cross-chain atomic swap between the Bitcoin and Litecoin testnets!", Litcoin announced on 16 November 2017.

Bitcoin magazine quoted Litecoin creator Charlie Lee as saying such 'atomic swaps' "are instant, [have] low fees, and better protect one's privacy".

The magazine said this "paves the way for trustless cryptocurrency exchanges, near-seamless multi-coin payment processors and more".

American Express launches first transatlantic blockchain payments corridor

American Express on 16 November announced the first transatlantic payments corridor to be built on blockchain.

"The model, which functions on the Ripple blockchain, enables payments to be sent between North America and Europe in a matter of seconds, vastly reducing transaction settlement times against today’s norms," says Dan Taylor at coingeek.com.

"Payments of this type via the Swift network currently take a minimum of one to two days to clear, while ACH payments can take even longer," said Taylor. "The technology was developed in partnership with the major European bank Santander, and could pave the way for further similar innovations in financial services use cases."

Square will let you buy and sell bitcoin

Square, the mobile payments firm, is running a trial that allows some users of its Cash platform to buy and sell bitcoin.

The report by TechCrunch on 14 November, sent Square's stock to an all-time high of $41.80 per share soon after the markets first opened. It gave up some of those gains during the rest of the trading day and closed at $40.66 per share, up 2.3%.

Business insider UK reported on 15 November:

Square added the feature to Cash, a rival to Venmo, because users asked for it, the company said in a statement. The company is still trying to figure out how to make it "faster and easier" and is only offering it to a "small number" of Cash users, it said.

The new feature will allow Square to compete with cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase and Gemini.

You can buy ethereum.com for $10m

The Ethereum.com domain has been listed for sale for about $10 million.

This price is not so unheard of in this sector, says btcmanager:

"Following Larry Fischer’s sale of Myworld.com for $1.2 million, Sharjil Saleem sold Eth.com for $2million, bitcoinwallet.com was also sold for $250,000 in 2014. Other domain names, such as cryptonews.com, cryptobank.com, Bitcoincash.org, and bitcoin.casino were also sold for an extremely high prices."

Swiss JPMorgan subsidiary fined for money laundering

Announced on 16 November but originally 30 June 2017, the Geneva subsidiary of J.P. Morgan was fined by Swiss authorities for money laundering.

Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co, said on 13 September that bitcoin "is a fraud". Bitcoin fell 6% on his statement. He repeated his claim a month later, saying it is useful for criminals.

The amount of the fine was not announced, and the news was delayed because the the company challenged the decision. It can still appeal to the Swiss federal court. Here's a Swiss report in German. And here's JP Buntinx with The Merkle account.

Alcointoday reported [the story on 18 November}(http://www.altcointoday.com/swiss-jpmorgan-subsidiary-charged-money-laundering/).

Two New Bitcoin Futures Hit Switzerland As Finma Slams JPMorgan

"Switzerland’s banking sector going bigtime Bitcoin as two banks are set to launch futures," noted [the bicoinist story]http://bitcoinist.com/two-new-bitcoin-futures-hit-switzerland-finma-slams-jpmorgan/).

The Vontobel structured products house have joined Leonteq Securities to offer a futures-like contract. "We have seen big demand for our long tracker certificate from investors interested in playing the upside potential of bitcoin and now they have also the possibility to hedge their position or go short," Vontobel senior executive Eric Blattmann told Bloomberg¨(https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-16/swiss-help-bitcoin-bears-profit-with-world-s-first-short-notes).

The certificates are listed on SIX Exchange. "The advantage of a mini-future certificate compared with a futures contract is the limited loss potential," Bloomberg points out.

Swiss Crypto Valley gains first strategic partner, KPMG-CH

KPMG Switzerland is joining the Swiss non-profit Crypto Valley Association (CVA) as its first Strategic Partner, Matthewe Warner reported on 18 November for allcoinsnews.

Mine cryptocurrency and support good U.S. causes

Emma Hinchcliffe at Mashable had [a good article on 16 November}(http://mashable.com/2017/11/16/appolition-bail-bloc-bail-funds-cryptocurrency/#bThJ5QUGDPq5) about using blockchain activities to fund good causes in the United States. Her selection:

Appolition, which launched on 14 November, lets users round up their credit card purchases to the nearest dollar and donate the remainder to community bail funds. She says: "It's like Acorns, but instead of investing your money, you're directing it to a cause." The name of the app is a play on abolition, a nod to its focus on racial justice and ending mass incarceration.

The website says: "Defendants are nine times more likely to plead guilty to a misdemeanor due to their inability to post bail, putting them at risk for losing their homes, jobs and ultimately making them unable to defend themselves."

Bail Bloc, launched on 15 November by a team at The New Inquiry, takes your computer's spare power and mines Monero cryptocurrency, which is converted into U.S. dollars and donated to the Bronx Freedom Fund and soon The Bail Project.

Hinchcliffe also notes: "Appolition is a more traditional way to donate: with your own money. Bail Bloc doesn't require donating any money at all—just running an app in the background of your computer. Since bail funds are revolving, with the money coming back when people show up to court hearings, the projects have even more potential to be long-lasting. Bail Bloc users will each generate between $3 and $5 a month, the project estimated."

Bail Bloc had 400 people running the program on its second day, according to the app's statistics. And Appolition got 140 sign-ups in its first six hours, the organizer reported.

A cryptocurrency for investigative journalists and their readers

PressCoin, a new e-token, is being launched next week to fund investigative and citizen journalists. After the 28-day token sale, people will be able to subscribe or join the PressCoin system using ordinary currency, credit cards, or online payment systems, its partner VentureBeat group said on 16 November.

Its aim to get rid of the advertising revenue model, decentralize funding sources, and upend corporate media monopolies with collaborative content that strengthens civic participation around the world,

PressCoin will allow limited access to read its content, but to read full stories, interact with journalists, or comment on stories, users will have to pay for a subscription or make micropayments for individual stories.

The initial coin offering (ICO) is scheduled to begin November 22, with one PressCoin for sale at the value of $1.

Internet Archive Adds Bitcoin Cash, Zcash to Donation Options

The Internet Archive, which has supported bitcoin donations since 2012 allowed employees to be paid in the cryptocurrency since 2013, announced on 16 November that it now accepts donations in Bitcoin Cash and Zcash.

altcointoday notes that the organization says it doesn’t cash out its cryptocurrency holdings, but is rather holding them to study how bitcoin can be used to benefit non-profits.