What Putin expects from Trump
The interlocking of interests and expectations between the US president-elect and the Kremlin comes well before the Republican's victory. On the eve of the inauguration, the climate in Moscow oscillates between euphoria and reserve.It is December 17, 2015. On his way out, after his annual press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin still answers a few questions. A journalist approaches the theme Donald Trump.
"He's a very striking man, no doubt talented," Putin says, defining the American billionaire as "an absolute leader in the presidential election campaign." At the time, Trump ranked first in Republican polls.
"He speaks of entering into a deeper level of relations with Russia," the Kremlin chief said. "How could we not welcome that? Of course we salute." Trump returned the next day: it was a great honor to be praised by a man "who is so respected at home and abroad."
Since this exchange of praise, much has happened. Trump won the election and will be sworn in on Friday (20/01). Already during the campaign, he had been branded a "Putin puppet" by the media and his adversary Hillary Clinton, based not only on his pro-Kremlin rhetoric but also on the numerous contacts between his associates and Moscow. Trump and Russia dismissed the charges as "nonsense" and electoral rhetoric.
After the suit, new charges put Trump under pressure: US secret services blamed Putin for personally ordering a cyber attack against the Democratic Party in order to undermine Hillary.
After arguing "I do not believe" for a while, Trump eventually admitted that Russia is responsible for the hacking attack, however denying any connection to Moscow and being blackmailing, as stated in a high-impact dossier - but unconfirmed .
Kremlin lurking
When the Republican candidate won, there were euphoric reactions in Russia, with applause in the Duma, the House of Representatives. Right-wing populist Vladimir Jirinovsky handed out champagne. "Yes, we celebrated for three days," Putin's spokesman Dmitri Peskov joked in a TV show late last month.
He said the euphoria after Trump's victory was inexplicable but understandable: everyone is so fed up with Washington's "nonsense" about Russia that "any hope for anything positive" makes him euphoric, he argued.
On the other hand, in the diplomatic means Muscovites there was not great euphoria, affirms Alexei Venediktov, editor-in-chief of the prestigious radio Echo Moskwy. "The pros knew that this made the game more difficult for us."
Russia should be careful with Trump for two reasons, warns the journalist: on the one hand, Washington will practice "a very reactionary policy"; On the other, he is "very impulsive." Therefore, the Kremlin remains secretive and awaits
In fact, Putin kept the reserve. Trump received two written messages from Moscow - the congratulations after the victory and Christmas vows - in addition to a phone call. A personal meeting would be being organized for after the inauguration, but still no date or fixed location.
Putin's central statement to Trump has remained unchanged for months: Russia would be willing to re-establish relations with the United States. And it is not Moscow's fault that they are so bad.
It is hard to predict now what that approach would look like. Analyzing Putin's comments: a word appears with great frequency: respect. On several occasions the Kremlin chief accused Washington of not treating his country with due consideration after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Partially achieved goals
At a congress in New York in November, Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister and former confidant of the Russian president, put it this way: "I think Putin would like Russia to be heard more", referring to the world events that affect Interests. And the president has already achieved his goal of being heard, Kudrin added, pointing to the effects of Russian action in Ukraine and Syria.
At the top of Putin's wish list for Trump should be the suspension of sanctions imposed against his country in 2014 after the Russian intervention in Ukraine. However the Kremlin has hinted that it does not expect this to happen so quickly.
Recognition of the annexation of the Crimean peninsula seems to be another important goal for Moscow. Both issues are related, and in his campaign Trump was willing to talk about it.
Distance from NATO
With regard to Ukraine, it is not ruled out that Moscow intends to involve the new government in Washington in direct talks. In Russian politics, unanimity reigns on one point: Russia wants US guarantees that Ukraine will never be integrated with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
Overall, the Russians have long wanted NATO to stay away from its borders. This applies also to the missile shield in Eastern Europe, whose construction is criticized by Moscow. However, as with sanctions, expectations here in Russia are rather low. It is understood that a change of course in NATO will not occur immediately, said the spokesman Peskov. Back to spheres of influence
In the case of Ukraine, Russia also wants an approximation of the country to the European Union to be agreed in advance with Moscow. The same applies to other former Soviet republics, such as Georgia or Moldova.
Putin, however, is not officially formulated in this way, it is a greater right of decision in solving various world problems, such as the conflict in Syria, and a kind of veto in the immediate vicinity of Russia. In the end, this would mean a return to the politics of spheres of influence.
What can come from Moscow?
For months, several analysts have been speculating what Putin would have to offer Donald Trump, in a kind of retribution for serving Russian interests. While there is no definitive answer, in one respect Russia remains a viable partner for the United States: in the fight against Islamic terrorism. According to the Moscow assessment, this is a subject in which Putin's and Trump's rhetoric are very close. This gives rise to hope.
Author: Roman Goncharenko (av) © picture-alliance/AP Photo/D. Lovetsky SOURCE OF INFORMATION: DW.COM
It's going to be an interesting year...
It's really going to be an interesting year.