US COVID Update - Outbreak winding down.

Possibly the last one, unless there is a true "second wave" in the near future. I will probably have a brief update on maybe Thursday when the past weekend data will have been rolled into the numbers.

After not looking for several days I have gathered most of the data and found few, if any surprises. Some states are 'gathering' data on "probable" COVID-related deaths where there is absolutely no way to determine if the dead person was infected. That's not really a good idea, either for data or actual science.

Its not like the flu.. or is it?

Let me point out that we basically never know the total number of flu deaths in a bad flu year, because nowhere near all those who die with "influenza-like" symptoms are tested for the flu, and many people were going to die anyway and the flu just hastened the process. We don't treat the flu as a possible society killing event. We don't shut down the economy or schools.

The 'counting' procedures and definitions for the COVID outbreak are being altered after the fact. Keep that in mind. I saw one of my specialist doctors today (he knows me well and we talk about a lot of things), and he was outraged (for him -- he's pretty mild) because he thinks states are "cooking the data" (his actual words) and he fears that patients are losing trust with doctors as a side effect. He just started doing in-person visits a week or so ago, and he's worried that less than half of the patients he was scheduled to see over the past 2+ months are willing to reschedule. He fears that some of them may die sooner than they should have due to that. He says online consults aren't working as well as he might have hoped. He also is very unhappy with a Governor that he voted for.

Ah, well. Michigan is kinda open. I saw very few of the people who were out (and their were quite a few -- traffic appeared to be normal as well) wearing masks. At the doc's office all the staff had masks on, but they were pulled below the lips unless they were talking directly to a patient (of whom there were two of us in the almost hour I was there -- fastest visit ever). It's over, Gov!

To the data. Except for June 2, where several states 'found' new deaths and bumped the totals for a single day (hypothetically they will go back and put them in the data on the date of the actual death -- hypothetically), the new deaths has continued the steady decline.

Even allowing for the weekend reporting, yesterday's 7 day MA dropped well under 6000 new deaths for the week. It looks like we're well into the "long tail" of the skewed curve to the right. That is, we will continue to see fewer and fewer new deaths attributed to COVID until the reports are no longer enough to be reported.

17 states reported no new deaths yesterday, That is probably mostly accurate, even for a weekend report. Many of these states have had 1 or 0 new deaths reported per day for over a week. 7 more states reported only a single death. The big numbers were NJ with 70 ("newly found" mostly -- NJ's reporting may well be the absolute worst) and NY and IL with 40 each. Those numbers may increase with Tuesday's numbers when the 'missing' weekend reports come in.

So, almost half the states have zero or one new death reported yesterday. Another 15 have single digits to report, most of them under 5. That's 39 states with very few new deaths. 6 of the remaining 11 states had between 10 and 16.

Total new deaths reported yesterday was 375 or so. That is the lowest number by almost 100 (even on weekends) since March 27. I will be very surprised if Tuesday's report reaches 500.

Meanwhile, despite all of this data and 'science', many states and cities are only 'open' if you bring a brick or some combustibles outside with you it appears. Who knew that they prevented spreading the virus and killing someone's Grandma? Ah, heck. Maybe that's even a bit far for me, but really? We'll send the cops to close barber shops or hair salons, but big "peaceful protests" get a pass?

(As a side note, I am wildly in favor of truly peaceful protests. If they're big enough they tend to have a useful effect. Find a cause you believe in, gather as many others who believe the same as you can, march or gather and demonstrate peacefully that you're unhappy, and I'll support that even if I think you're totally wrong. We only have elections periodically, but you can 'vote' any time you like by peacefully assembling and protesting. In fact, I will applaud you for doing that even if it's you, all by yourself with just a sign. Go for it. I might even join you even if I disagree with you because that's the right way to do it.)

Meanwhile. There is some evidence that the virus is evolving into a milder form. That would be great news. Instead of lingering for years and perhaps eventually killing millions we may have already seen the worst. Let's try though, to truly "follow the science" next time.

The data pretty much all shows that the US peaked in cases around April 17 or so and deaths around 9-10 days later (7 day MA). Depending on which state you were in it might have been a little later (IL seems to have peaked around May 12, but their data is almost as 'bad' as NJ, and they basically 'plateaued' at around 100 new deaths/day from to May 4 to May 21 and never had anything but a linear curve -- odd, but it may be a result of the way data was reported).

States like TX and FL and GA, and less populated states like AR, SD, ND, MT, et al never really had 'peaks'. Their curves were basically linear with plateaus rather than actual peaks.

The data and curves themselves are pretty easy to interpret I think, but the underlying causes for the different states need more data on more variables for them to be truly understood.

Also, the "disparate impacts' noticed, may be related to low levels of Vitamin D. Those who didn't get outside much from say Nov through May and who didn't take supplemental D may not have had their immune systems at best efficiency. That would undoubtedly include many seniors and people of color who routinely don't get a lot of D from the sunshine in those months.

The worst effects also obviously hit areas with lots of mass transit use and lots of multi-generational homes worse than other areas. Next time, we really should not use a "one-size-fits-all" model of response.

Since the peaceful protests (and many of them were) have pushed COVID-19 almost off the news, and the outbreak is obviously winding down, I will probably not up date this again other than later this week until/unless a new, bad outbreak occurs.

All states, even NY/NJ really should be all but wide open for business. They won't be, for political reasons. Among other things, I doubt if most of the governors who have kept the lockdown going this long will be willing to admit that 1) their reasons were very much political and not based on science or data, and 2) they were wrong not to loosen the restraints much earlier. Some governors seem determined to continue locking down into July or later. It will be interesting to see how that plays. Especially since the mass die-off of Grandmas doesn't seem to be happening in GA, FL, or SD. just saying.

Both the health profession and many governments have lost a lot of trust from a lot of people, and that's not good, because some new health crisis is always possible in our future. Will people believe the "experts" next time? I leave you to think about that.

Have as good a summer as you can. I had a great time at my cabin (the air is so clear that you can truly read by moonlight and starlight at midnight), and I hope you have some good times as well.