US COVID Update (07-05-2020)

I kind of put this one-off. I am having real difficulty accepting the "goodness" of much of the data that is being reported. Digging into how different states report hasn't been much help. It is bad enough that there was no agreement among states as to how to report, it is not even obvious that their own definitions are being followed (at least not for the dozen or so states with a lot of cases that I checked on).

And the politics of reporting is getting worse. For instance, there is the charge out there (mainly pushed by the Tampa Bay Times and an outfit named the worldwidesocialistwebsite) that somehow the Gov of FL is refusing to report data to the CDC. Let me tell you what I found after a relative deep dive.

1. The CDC gets data on ILI cases (which now seems to include at least 800 reporting sites) from more sources than just state departments of health. States "collate" data mostly by county from county health department (or the equivalent -- some states have multi-county health depts) to produce the state data. Most of the CDC reporting sites do not report directly to the states but to the county health departments.

2. The CDC reporting sites are testing labs bot govt and private. There is a built-in lag in reporting the data and the CDC warns about that, and says that generally the previous week's data is pretty good. (I'm boiling down some of the language here.)

3. The Tampa Bay Times wanted to report the county-level data, which includes names and addresses, and filed FOIA to get them. The state basically argued (this was all back in early April) that the names and addresses were HIPPA protected and had to be withheld. That irritated the Times.

4. Florida reports all COVID-related deaths (under their definition, which appears to be pretty similar to others) as being "FL residents who died in FL", "non-residents (i.e. people who listed their 'official' residence as somewhere outside of FL) who died in FL", and "FL residents who died out-of-state". They say this is to prevent double counting of deaths. Take it for what it is worth. But all deaths are reported to CDC, allowing for the various built-in lags.

5. While implying that the FL Gov is either delaying or not reporting deaths to CDC the Times offers no evidence nor proof. They really don't even assert that he is. They are angry it seems because they want names and addresses and the state doesn't want the counties to give them to the paper. I have taught HIPPA off and on, and I'm really not sure if the "privilege" extends after death. IANAL, so I won't opine here. I do know that most officials are incredibly unwilling to do anything that even might HIPPA due to successful lawsuits about such in the past.

6. The worldidesocialistwebsite apparently picked up the Times article and flat-out asserts (again with no proof or evidence) that the FL Gov is not reporting deaths to CDC.

This is the sort of non-data bickering that is making it difficult to know which, if any, data can be trusted. As does the MD Gov's action (and remember he is a Republican) in what appears to be deliberate over-counting of deaths. Then there is the constant 'finding' new deaths in NY/NJ/MA/CT/PA especially.

At least when we were using data of confirmed cases and confirmed (usually hospitalized) deaths due to the confirmed virus we had consistent data. I don't think we have that any longer.

So, what good are daily updates? I don't know. I do know that data I no longer trust is being used to keep the economy shut down no matter how many millions of people are hurt one way or another. Evidently it is okay to die for any reason not COVID-related. We are really, really not "following the science."

I am sorry this has all turned so political. I hope that those of you who have been using my thoughts understand that I have been trying desperately to be as apolitical as possible. I guess that has become, against my will, all but impossible.

The science, in my estimation is clear. We know who is really at risk, we know who probably are at very little risk. We know that the economy sucks (30M+ out of work). We should balance those risks as well as we can while allowing adults to make as many of their own decisions as possible. No emergency should ever mean giving up the Bill of Rights.

Sad rant off. On to the data.

Same old, same old. The data is being driven by the NYC area data. 200+ US new deaths but 427 NY new deaths. Every couple of days NY comes up with a big increase in New Deaths. Odd. MA adds about 80, and every other state doesn't reach 10 new deaths or (the huge majority) has a drop in new deaths. Seriously, we currently only have what could be called an epidemic in the NYC area. Even the Chicago Metro is downtrending. Metro Detroit is up a bit, but that appears from counting new nursing home deaths as COVID-related.

New Cases US are up by 1500, NY/MA/CT up 500+ each. There is your net increase right there. NJ down 900 (NJ reports are very erratic and I don't trust them a bit). CA down by 500. Other states all over the place. Given more (maybe) testing and testing of those with few or no symptoms we really should be seeing a big increase in new cases nationwide and a decrease in new deaths. On the 7 day MA we are indeed seeing a steady down trend in new deaths. But the expected up trend in new cases is small to the extent that it exists at all.

Basically we have an ongoing but somewhat declining epidemic in the NYC area but a truly declining epidemic everywhere else.

The best 'scientific' reason I can give for the above is that the virus isn't as easily transmissible as previously thought. If the lockdown and/or social distance was making an impact we should still be seeing a pretty large increase in positive tests simply due to testing more people.

Ah, well. Do your thing, but try to make that a good thing for everyone.