US COVID Update (02-05-2020)

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Took the day off, so I'm combining two days data. I did collect the data both days.

Really, by this time it is all down to how fast do we let up on the lockdown. Don't let anyone fool you about continuing the lockdown will save lives. That might possibly be true IF we can both get a vaccine and develop about 100,000,000 doses (and it will necessarily not be "scientifically" tested) and get them injected before about next October. How likely do you think that is? Anyway, at best continuing a lockdown would only shift deaths from roughly now until this Fall. Meanwhile the economy and Maybe 200,000,000 Americans will suffer rather a lot. It' not a fun trade-off, but there it is.

Anyway. Between 4-30 and 5-2 US new cases were down 1000 and new deaths were down 500. Most interesting is that the states in the top 15 that had increases in new cases over 100 had declines in new deaths, and the declines in new deaths were part of a trend. To the extent that there is a rise in new cases it apparently is new mild cases. No states seem to be recording increases in hospitalizations.

NJ had a drop in new deaths of 250, probably because they have finally quit adding old "suspected deaths". TX, CA, FL still show no signs of anything but being past very low levels of infections and deaths. If you exclude the NYC area the US barely had an epidemic at all. Other than Detroit, and to a lesser extent Chicago, had cases and deaths that would have raised an eyebrow during a normal flu season.

One thing that seems evident from the actual data is that COVID-19 must not be nearly as transmissible as feared. No matter which state you look at you don't see their lockdown affecting the curve much. The soonest you should be able to see an effect would be 10 days and more like 14 days. No state trend or curve shows that. Not one.

I can't explain the concept simply, but as I've said before, the virus spreads through networks and nodes, not through diffusion. And the network effect depends strongly on not just how many people an infected individual comes into 'contact' with (contact being defined here as being close enough in space for a long enough time to give a big enough viral load to an uninfected individual -- at 6 feet or less that seems to be on average more than 30 minutes based on MIT studies of mass transit in NY]) but how many different nodes an infected person is in such contact with. Think of nodes as groups of people and the 'network' as the lines of travel by individuals between nodes. Nodes then would include those in the home, or apartment building, or mode of transport, or work spaces, or shopping spaces, or dining spaces, or entertainment spaces.

Obviously breaking enough of the lines would reduce the movement between nodes, but the sort of actual semi-lockdown actually put in place didn't do that.

In addition to imposing semi-lockdowns in NY (they just recently started disinfecting subway cars overnight after reducing the number of cars and keeping the running ones full of people) NY forced unprepared rest homes with limited or no PPE to take known infected elderly into there facilities with no way to isolate them from the non-infected. These patients could have been sent to the Army field hospitals or the Navy hospital ship but they were almost uniformly not, That killed a lot of people.

The actual science was pushed aside for political considerations.

Ah, well. At least if we have a second wave we will be better prepared for it.

In state cases over the past 2 days, NJ had 100+ new cases and 250 fewer new deaths. 250 new cases and a dozen fewer deaths, FL 50 new case and zero more deaths, GA 250 more new cases and 25 fewer new deaths, TM 400 more new cases and zero more new deaths. Overall, we're obviously, as a nation, past the peak by quite a bit.

All the other states seem to be trending down in deaths. Over 40 states had fewer than 20 new deaths yesterday, and more than 30 had fewer than 10. Only 7 had more than 100 new deaths. NY, NJ, MA, MI, PA, IL, CT.

Any effects from re-opening should show up in about 2 weeks, but those states that barely locked down, like SD, show the same curves. I think if there is a rebound second wave this month, instead of a flu season second wave next Fall, I expect it to be even flatter than the current one, and we're better prepared.

It doesn't show up much in the news, but it's not hard to see that people are already deciding to leave the lockdown, whether some governments like it or not. I've been out grocery shopping and to pick up takeout, and traffic and such is about back to normal as are the 'crowds' in the grocery (and Lowe's).

The smarter state/local governments will, I think, try to manage behavior rather than try to force it. We'll see what works best. The word I have from some more rural parts of Michigan is that people are basically ignoring Gov Whitmer's orders.

So. Still serious. Keep practicing good health habits. Care for your families and neighbors. Ignore the petty tyrant hysterical types. Enjoy the Spring and Summer as best you can.