THE FUTURE OF CRYTOCURRENCY

If you own Bitcoin, Ethereum, or pretty much any other cryptocurrency, your portfolio isn't looking very good today. And you've probably gotten your share of smug looks from folks in the office who'd always said this crypto thing is a scam. And I bet you're also sick of the crypto-faithful telling you to HODL (aka "hold").

My portfolio is also a sad sight today. But as I'm looking at the double digit red numbers next to the names of the coins I own, I mostly feel relief.

Nobody likes to lose. And yeah, it would've been nice if Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other good and interesting projects in the cryptospace continued their moon mission until everyone that owns but a single coin is rich. But the growth in the past year has been so insane as documented

This could only end in two ways.

One is a correction, which is what's happening now. Prices are going down and people are selling their coins, but the pace at which this is happening is reasonable considering the prices rose equally as fast. At some point, an equilibrium between buyers and sellers will be reached and, unless we get more bad news, the growth will return, hopefully at a saner pace.

The other option is a total market crash — the type that could happen on news that, say, Bitcoin has been banned in the U.S., or that the operators of a major exchange has exit scammed their customers, stealing all their money and moving to the Bahamas with their Lambos. Or it could simply happen because the market is blown out of proportion — market crashes often happen with few warning signs; maybe a tiny bit of bad news and poof, it's all gone.

If such a crash were to happen, Bitcoin or Ethereum wouldn't be down 15, 20 or 25 percent in a day. They'd be a lot lower, and you couldn't even check the prices because the exchanges and the price tracking sites would all be down.

The fact that the market has corrected makes the fictional scenario described above less likely. Financial markets are often described as pressure cookers; if you heat it up but don't release the pressure every now and then, it might explode.

Was the pressure too high in the cryptocurrency market? Were the prices overblown? At any given point, you'll find people who'll tell you that the growth is just starting and that this will be a multi-trillion dollar market (and if we reach that point, a multi-quadrillion dollar market). And you'll also find people who'll tell you that bitcoins and ethers are worth nothing, and that all of 2017 has been a crazy dream.

There have been, however, numerous signs that the prices were too high. When Bitcoin surged past $2,000 for the first time ever, just eight months ago, I spoke with several experts who said the market was overvalued. When the cryptocurrency market cap reached $500 billion for the first time, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin pointed out that cryptocurrency projects haven't really fulfilled their lofty promises.