EOS ICO Math - When To Invest?
Yesterday, I watched an interview with Dan Larimer the main developer of Steem, EOS and BitShares. Listening to him I got really interested in all of his projects.
I have seen a lot of hype about EOS, but haven't really dug deeper into the technical details and why is it awesome. In short what I learned is that EOS is really a better version of Ethereum. Apps are much easier to develop on the EOS network, they also run much faster and the transactions can be free or extremely cheaper.
An interesting fact that I didn't know is that EOS is already fully funded and the ICO is only held for a fair distribution of coins.
The Math Behind EOS ICO
EOS hasn't launched yet and won't be live until a year has passed of the ICO. There's a test network being built, EOS is still being developed and there are already test apps being built for the EOS network.
Currently, EOS is priced at $1.85 and at its peak, it was $5+. The market cap is around $450 million.
I think chances of the price rising right now are very slim. There are still a ton of time until the launch and the hype will probably slowly worn off until around a few months before launch.
Currently, there are only 1/5 of the tokens distributed so, if the market cap stayed the same the price would drop to $0.37. Though, if we would calculate using the lowest price that we recently saw, which was $1.20, then it could go to as little as $0.24.
In the interview, it was mentioned that EOS currently generates around $2 million a day in investments. If that trend continues at the end of the ICO the market cap could be around $1.1 billion and the price of one EOS coin would be $1.1, which is almost what we saw recently.
Currently, 25/351 days of the ICO have passed. It feels EOS is quite fairly priced right now, though I think it will probably go down in the upcoming months because the price will continue to inflate, the hype will run off and likely a sell off could occur.
Also, I believe the investments will go down. $2 million a day is really huge and I'm guessing it won't sustain. So, if the market cap won't follow the inflation the price will go down.
All in all, my conclusion is that there is an opportunity coming to get into EOS most likely 4-6 months into the ICO at the price range of less than $0.40.
What's your opinion about EOS? Maybe it's not coming down from the current price? Let me know in the comments below.
I am afraid that:
Therefore, I also participated in round 0. Spreading bets seems the best.
The first argument seems highly unlikely. A pump and dump would be much more profitable if you had the resources to keep the price high.
The second argument I generally agree it could happen, I'm mostly waiting for the end of summer and a possible return of bigger investors who would bring more volatility.
The third argument is also a good one, there are plenty examples of projects that went through their ICO stages and just because of their vision managed to keep the token prices up. For example, Maid Safe.
Thanks for the comment :)
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I agree on this one. A price in the range of $0.30-$0.50 is very likely. If it ever gets to $0.40, I'm in!
If there's going to be such a major sell off like we saw recently in the market, the price maybe could go even lower. Will, need to wait and see.
True, but I don't think it will go very much lower than $0.35