Dollar will curb inflation. Forecast as of 24.06.2022
Weekly US dollar fundamental forecast
The Fed wants to secure a soft landing for the US economy, but the landing will likely be hard. The market sentiment gives a high chance of a recession in the USA and the euro area. This is now a base scenario. The matter is how the Fed will respond to the economic downturn. Will it pause rate hiking or cut the rates? This will determine the trends in many financial instruments, including the EURUSD.
During the speech before the US Congress, Jerome Powell said that even if the US faced a recession, the Fed would continue raising the rates until the inflation rate starts slowing down. Asked by policy-makers what if, in this scenario, unemployment will rise sharply, the Fed Chair didn’t answer immediately. In his opinion, in theory, inflation should fall in this case. In any case, he does not believe that the central bank will start cutting rates.
Dynamics of PMIs in USA, UK and euro area
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