What's Next For Steem-Backed Dollars (SBD)? Probably Up, Or Down...Or Sideways. So Buy! Or Sell...Or Hold?

Never-before-seen, original work. Contact Sotheby's for auction information.

The funny thing about Steem-Backed Dollars is they are actually a much more effective currency than most other cryptocurrencies - provided, of course, that you paid roughly $1 for them (or they continue to master David Blaine's levitation trick.) They transmit almost instantly, have no fees whatsoever, and as an added bonus, even have real intrinsic value in their convertibility directly to Steem via the fill-convert option in the Steemit wallet.

In other words, they look nothing like this abject failure.

For the record, I'm predicting a "bear" market in fees for BTC, at least temporarily. Price dumps like last night's cause weak hands to sell, and this causes a rush of transactions, who all begin competing with higher fees to get their transaction processed. It can make sense to pay $100s in fees if you have tons of Bitcoin and want to beat the market during a drop. As a result, market demand for Bitcoin transactions causes fees to moon, as above.

It won't last, but it's coming back next time the pool is congested, and the next, and the next...

Wait, I thought this kindling we took in had the solution inside?

What does this have to do with SBD? My point is this market has, at best, a tertiary grasp on fundamentals and thus, one can never be sure which way price will go, despite strong fundamentals and utility. Many a trader have been burned thinking long term about silly things like actual usability, and fortunes have been left on the table. Sometimes, you just need to read the tea leaves, sacrifice a goat, acquire a tarot deck do some solid technical analysis.

It's a liability if you are more logical than the market, or too forward-thinking, just as much as if you are less. We're human, and we tend to make dumb trades, panic out of fear, sell or buy at exactly the wrong time, etc. This is why if you draw the same lines that other people draw, they become a self-fulfilling prophecy. We're really all just looking for order in the chaos...or at least, someone to tell us what to do.

So, let us "roll the bones", as it were, and grab a protractor.

That looks like a triangle thing I think those Wall Street guys use.

Note the particularly sharp bounce from the last dump, which barely touched the area above our trend-line.

I call this piece "Zig, The Electric Blue"

Much like a game of Jezzball that has gone horribly wrong, compressing price triangles like we see above cause increasingly harsh price bounces off of both the top and bottom trend-lines until the market decides which way to ram it through (up or down...that's what she said) near the apex of the triangle formation.

It's anyone's guess as to what happened here. Lottery-ball machine explosion?

Based on the relative ability of Steem and SBD to hold up during this price dump, an upside break is totally possible. However, we are in at least a temporary bear market, and SBD are already almost $10. It's hard to recommend an asset "tethered" at $1 in a bear market as a buy.

I know the question everyone really wants answered is "What do I do to make the most money?" Nobody can say for sure. However, Bitcoin is likely to bounce back before long, and that means any SBD you are able to sell at .00080000 or more are going to leave you sitting with $15 or more in Bitcoin, per SBD, relatively soon. It's hard to do much wrong setting limit sells from 75k Satoshi all the way up to our trendline, maybe 95000 Satoshi.

If one wants to be greedy, aim for the highs near 12/7, 105-109 (110 is too even, set below round numbers slightly, not on or above).

Best of "luck" out there.

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Sources: Bittrex, Bitinfocharts.com
Copyright: CoinMarketCap, Bittrex, MindTemple.com, PBS, Rounders